Jason H

The futility of looking too far ahead. That's not a personal spite against anyone in particular, just an observation. I shall pug that chart away and check it on the 17th to see how near the mark it was

Only 17° at 12:09? Lol. This is the UK, not Florida. That's a pretty warm night time temperature for the UK. Storms abated here for now. Nice lightening display. The odd boom of thunder and some convective rain. That's it for the South East tonight I think. Night all. Hope you get what you wish for.

Rain and thunder ceased. But lightening still flickering away every 5-10 seconds.

A great light display tonight. Superb stuff!

The lightening display is superb. Is this being picked up on radar? I'd be interested to know the strikes per minute. At least 30 by now. Still mainly high based storms. No hail yet, although heavy convective rain now. Seems to be developing overhead?

Lovely electrical display in Bexleyheath. High based storms mainly IC with the odd CG. Occasional convective downpours. Lightening at least every 5 seconds. Very impressive. Lying here in bed windows and curtains open watching the display. Is this the North Downs effect?

Thanks for that!

Those moaning about the current conditions need to look at the bigger picture. Just because it's clouded over and breezy, doesn't mean there's not going to be a storm later. It's never that simple. Many thanks

This is the towering cumulonimbus over Greenhithe and Dartford earlier

Except its dank misty and overcast in London. Please remember the weather is not the same in other parts of the country as it is on yours :-)

I love the people who go on about snow shields and gaps in the showers. By their nature, showers have gaps. Lol.

Slight over reaction. lol

Dewpoints are the key for tonight. Not looking favourable at the moment. Next week looks to continue the cold. Warm regards it certainly ain't!

N Nah. its the clouds

Snowing properly now. Not expecting this . Won't last long, but nice to see snow falling.

Flakes fluttering down here now

That makes the ensembles meaningless until then.

Lol I like it

Touchy. I was merely pointing out that any breakdown on the GFS was over 11 days away, so shouldn't be taken as gospel. And, not to worry too much. Yesterday I was sceptical of the up and coming cold spell. I think it's been upgraded today with colder uppers now being introduced, so mu bullishness is increasing. I'll wait for the Met Office or Ian F to comment further.

Phew, so we're looking at a charts 11 days away to confirm the cold spell that hasn't started has finished. LOL.

On face value, whilst I am inclined to agree with that assessment, you never know what can pop up. Ian F left some interesting comments earlier about the current set up. As TEITS has mentioned above, it's where the blocking occurs that's the crucial factor. The latest operational GFS is not in a favourable position for colder weather over the whole UK, not just the South. Still plenty of winter left for something colder, but at the moment, like you, I can't see anything too obvious in the current outputs for sustained cold.

You don't have to buy them, they're free?

Blimey oh crikey. That's a stunning chart for deep mid winter. I bet the Met Office are twitching now

Sensational chart. Bring it on please.

It's not scaring people away at all. I'm afraid post like your original one, although well meaning, confuses people and that puts people off posting. Just let the runs unfold and then voice an opinion. I don't think he implicitly said your post was rubbish. It was a light hearted post in general. No malice intended. Shame you won't be posting any longer. If you cannot take criticism for a post on a weather forum, perhaps it would be better for you not to post? Awaiting the ECM to see if the puzzle can be solved. I doubt it will though