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Jason H

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Everything posted by Jason H

  1. Jason H
    Models moving to other models? Or the models just displaying their interpretation of the data it's fed? Fascinating stuff, no matter the semantics. Some places could get serious snowfall based on the latest GFS op. Still heading towards cold for all is the general theme. How and for how long still to be resolved.
  2. Jason H
    . It's only just beginning in my book.
  3. Jason H
    Winter is over....
  4. Jason H
    9 days away. 5 days into FI. Not likely to verify. But certainly within the scope of current modelling. From a synoptic point of view, that finger of high pressure up and over the Pole is beautiful.
  5. Jason H
    It's a change out in fantasy land, yes. No change from the GFS in the overall set-up, which is cold.
  6. Jason H
    It's clear enough to me where this is heading. I won't let one rogue (OK, 3) ECM op(s) detract me
  7. Jason H
    Agreed. ECM continues along its own path towards cold. Not 1963 by any standards, but is this likely?
  8. Jason H
    I admire your enthusiasm for a computer generated algorithm. I'd be surprised if the ECM deviated from a cold outlook. But remember, it is one run from a number of ensemble members. Look at the output with that in mind and that this specific run could be a warmer run from the pack, or even a colder run. That being said, I do like the running commentaries that people do as the models come out step by step. Most entertaining.
  9. Jason H
    The bi-polar nature of this thread continues. Variation again on a general theme of cold encroaching from the East/North East. Good operationals so far.
  10. Jason H
    Quiet on here. ECM I take it has caused the sudden lack of postings? The usual inter-run wobbles. Still on track from what I can see.
  11. Jason H
    People getting hung up on the operational again. Look at the overall picture. That ECM operational is a variation on the theme and whilst not delivering Narnia, it's still pointing to a cold outcome. "The best of winter is over" opined one poster? Brave call.
  12. Jason H
    Snow chances at the weekend, ushered away sharpish by the Atlantic. Then what?
  13. Jason H
    Not good to sneer at people disappointed with snow. You never know, the snow shield might strike your locale next time around.
  14. Jason H
    People in glass houses old boy. You don't want the snow shield to strike.
  15. Jason H
    Absolutely. 9 days away. Not a fig of verifying.
  16. Jason H
    Exactly. T144 is the maximum. And even that is a little optimistic. That's why I am more confident tonight in that the big 3 seems to be closer. Still lots to go, but a definite up-tick.
  17. Jason H
    Fair play. I am not a forecaster and don't pretend to be. I have a rudimentary understanding and knowledge of the charts. And in probability going on past form, you're probably correct. There's no need for naked Pepper Pig chanting though.... However, all I know is that 5 days is a long time in forecasting terms and things do and can change, for better or worse, dependent on your weather preference.
  18. Jason H
    It's not the most likely scenario. Even if it was, it's over a week away. Far too much emphasis is placed on these operational charts out yonder. I get that they're there to be commented on, but this needs to be tempered with the probability of the time-frames involved. I am really enjoying this period of model watching.
  19. Jason H
    Sensible post. Even those charts are in FI. Improved Operational's tonight for those hunting further winter weather. The ensembles looking better too. Interestometer up to a 6/10.
  20. Jason H
    Very good presentation of the current state of play. Delivered calmly and succinctly. Unlike the Model thread
  21. Jason H
    These latest charts seem to tie in with the Met Office assessment of winds from Scandinavia in the mid term. Still the best in the business. Encouraging to see the GFS operational follow suit. As always, the ensembles and the EPS will give us more of an idea for the direction of travel.
  22. Jason H
    No worries about Iberian heights there. All change again in the mid-term. Not to be trusted at the best of times. Short term changes in the output this evening swing the pendulum back to cold. Still lots to play for. Further output required.
  23. Jason H
    It seems that no matter what the early/mid-term brings us, the end result is a blocked, increasingly colder pattern. Good trends tonight from the Ops. Let's see what the ensembles/EPS have to say.
  24. Jason H
    Lots of knew jerk reactions to the overnight and morning runs, in both directions. There's no denying, no matter what way the models try and thwart it, there's always some cold solution. Enjoy the ride. Look for the overall trends, not the details, especially past 4/5 days.
  25. Jason H
    Is it a Greenland ridge? A Greenland wedge? A surface Greenland High? A high Greenland high? Runs..... Joking aside, they don't look too bad.
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