Jason H
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Posts posted by Jason H
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4 minutes ago, Yarkie said:
I've just popped on the 'model discussion thread' to see posts about the models hoping there'll be some model related discussion and some screen shots, links to models and I've been let down again.
Folk talking about hopes for snow, mby, moaning, posters bigging themselves up about how they were right a week back etc etc......very little actual model discussion
Many thanks. There's plenty of charts and good analysis being posted. Many thanks.
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11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Maybe they give a realistic view rather than ramping. Southern Ireland gets as much snow as anywhere else as we can be hit from the East and West. The gfs was poor last night and worse this morning. The ecm was good and I said that. That's not doom posting its posting what the charts show
The reality is very few have seen a snowflake half way through Winter. Having said that background noises remain good
I disagree. You'll need specific set up to get heavy snow in Ireland, especially Southern Ireland. Current model output doesn't look good for your location with the current set up. If you've no interest in cold weather, only snow, you're going to be disappointed, or realistic as you've pointed out.
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5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
Indeed but most on here look for cold in the hoped that it delivers snow eventually. I can only speak for myself but if it's not going to snow I have zero interest in cold
We are waiting a long-time to get this home. A mid latitude high eating into January is not what most want. It might as well get mild
I can't see much snow in the set up for Ireland anyway. There never has been.
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Snow eased off for a while here, but has picked up in the last couple of minutes. Temperature has now fallen to -0.5°. Heavier returns moving in from the East according to the radar.
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2 minutes ago, snow raven said:
Coming down quite heavily now, still settling! Well chuffed
Been settling since the first flake on the South Side of Bexleyheath. As you said, coming down nicely.
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The odd flake in the lampost here. Temperature at its highest all day 0.0°.
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8 minutes ago, Alderc said:
Well I have to say we’ve been extremely lucky in the last three weeks. Three evenings of storms each with lightning displays we sometimes go can go a couple of years without seeing.
Last night was a solid, 7-7.5 out of 10 for the UK and I go into my holiday in a couple of weeks in the Dominican Republic without the need to be desperate to see storms there which is a huge bonus.
Worst ever I'm going on holiday post. Enjoy.
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Fairly average storm here. High based. Lots of lightening. Heavyish rain. First one of the year.
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Just now, Harry said:
Gutted - so much cloud has come over I haven’t seen a single flash yet dreading the gap!!
Still the odd intermittent high based orange flash
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Can see distant flashes to my South, even from here
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1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:
I hate to say it but..
The writing was on the wall a few days ago, but everyone jumped down my throat for dare suggesting it.
AHH. The old "I told you so" post. Be careful, it hasn't happened yet. Lots of egos on here, jostling for position from both sides. Sure the latest output has flipped. There's obviously, somewhere been a massive signal missed by the models. Not sure what though.
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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Block reformable @168.. the energy sectors should be breached .. on we ride
In isolation, that's an astonishing chart. Look at the isobars.
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
Absolutely horrific runs today. Huge shift across the board (apart from the UKMO which looks very alone).
EPS much further north, barely 2-3 days of cold weather in the south before milder air moves in again, wet and windy xmas day with some snow for somewhere lucky in the north.
Horrific. Very close to game over.
Horrific.
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1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:
I'm still in school , this took me all of yesterday to write and way longer than I wanted hence leaving it open for discussion rather than finishing it off with a conclusion which would close the chat, I could have done percentages but I'm extremely tired right now so if someone else could do that, that would be great, if not I could do it later
Dedication young man. Well done.
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
GEFS 6 mean has us in mild south westerlies again by 276.
Shocking..... Best get my budgie smugglers out then.
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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:
Doesn’t appear to me that this ‘flatness’ will last too long
even the geps have found euro low anoms by end week two (notable in its rarity on the geps)
The pendulum swings back and forth - don’t take too much from one set of runs …… in any direction
Good luck with that advice on here . Very interesting output at the moment. Looks like some proper weather after a fairly lengthy benign period. Beautiful autumnal morning in this part of the world today. Seasonal looks to be the trend on the model output.
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4 minutes ago, london-snow said:
If you dare my friend I can give you my post code it has hammered down with rain the last 2hrs.
I think you missed your typo?
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Just now, london-snow said:
Hi all from a unfortunate snowless south london! However my second favourite weather is T-S it’s currently chuckling it down here and has for the past few hours.
Certainly made me chuckle.
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Moderate snowfall here now. Looks like it's snowed lightly overnight. Been a great spell so far. People's expectations are too high sometimes. It was always going to be better the further east you were. As per the met office warnings which have been spotty on.
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The wind has really picked up here. Can hear it howling down the chimney. Blowing the powder snow off the roofs.
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4 minutes ago, ajkwilson said:
Could be very wrong but I feel it will track this way ? ....
My take is that it'll be more heading towards the North Kent Coast. Not enough Easterly element yet.
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Signs that the low pressure is starting to pull away South Eastwards. Precipitation should start to pivot and the winds swing North Easterly then finally East North Easterly. Time to start looking for streamer set-ups.
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Very fine snow blowing about in a strengthening wind. Temperature falling back now to 0°. Everything coated...
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Shame the ignore function doesn't work when the ignored user(s) quote a post or are being quoted.
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Jason H
You don't get a choice with the weather. It'll do what it will do.