Alex95
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Everything posted by Alex95
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I don't see marginality being a problem really from looking at the projected dew points etc. The uppers aren't very low but that isn't important in a frontal setup as long as everything else falls into place. It's just precipitation amounts which could be a problem imo.
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Even Cumbria looks dodgy on the NAE. I will look nervously in the morning!
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The ECM looks good to me, similar to the GFS. I can't see the North East staying dry as the wind will be a Ely or SEly ahead of the front, and this will pep up the precipitation to the east of the Pennines if it decays as it crosses them. It has actually snowing here this evening, the grass is slightly white now.
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Ah, I haven't been there for quite a while. Nice town, but watch out for the swans, they are quite forceful when they get their eye on whatever food you're holding!
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Where in the Lakes are you going? I always find Grasmere and Ambleside to be far snowier than Keswick in marginal situations, although this weekend doesn't look that marginal.
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I will be seriously gutted if I don't even make it to Keswick on Friday evening!
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That's way out in the low resolution part of the run though, it still looks mighty cold for the foreseeable future.
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January's event wasn't looking this good at this short range. If this was a repeat performance I doubt many people in Newcastle would complain though, that streamer which moved in instead gave 4-6 inches of fresh snow.
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The GFS looks amazing for most of Northern England, even the NE could get quite a bit from this event.
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Fingers crossed for another March 2006, that was epic over there!
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For once it looks like there could be a big dumping in the Lakes this weekend
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Same here - grey with light snow.
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Turning to snow here in Newcastle.
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Rather wet in Durham for the past two days.
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And its back to heavy rain.
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Turning a bit more to snow here again.
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Turned more to rain here now.
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Back to plain old sleety drizzle here now. That was quick!
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Maybe if we get loads of northern blocking now we won't get any of those cold misty easterlies in May this year. Surely you would rather it was 0°C in March and 20°C in May rather than 10°C in both months - I'm a heat lover as well as a cold lover, its just that March/April are too early for real warmth generally so I'm just looking for cold at the moment. Meanwhile its turning back to sleet here as the intensity eases off.
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Absolutely chucking it down here, not lying yet though.
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Heavy wet snow here now, finally. Is it really sensible to be looking at charts at +336 hrs though? When we know the charts at +96 are going to change drastically never mind that far ahead!
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The rain in Newcastle is just starting to turn sleet, so hopefully I'll be reporting snow soon. The 12z is an exceptional GFS run for the second half of March - wet snow or sleet tomorrow, then proper snow on Tuesday, maybe an easterly on Wednesday with snow showers, then a huge snowfall next weekend from an Atlantic low bumping into the cold air. Obviously next weekend is outside the reliable timeframe, but it is very unusual by this part of March for there to be no real mild weather on the horizon at all.
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There's still loads of potential for low levels tomorrow evening and on Tuesday, then the easterly midweek looks pretty unstable too. Fingers crossed for one more significant snowfall event this winter! The early hours of Tuesday look too marginal for low lying parts with dew points above freezing, but the cold air quickly undercuts again during the day.
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The NAE also shows heavy snow down to sea level by Monday night.