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Everything posted by JamesL

  1. I think we can now say with some certainty that some parts of Wales will have some of their heaviest falls since 2010/2013
  2. .....And following on from the Arpege we now have the 06z NavGem Folliwing suit. This is FAR from a done deal yet
  3. Following on from my previous posts re slider position. The most recent 06z Arpege has it perfectly aligned so that most of what falls in Wales, will be snow
  4. The Gfs has blown this low up which it tends to do from time to time and Imo isn't going to happen. The result would be a southward correction on the 12z
  5. I'm still sticking to my thoughts of last night with further corrections south over the next 36 hours. Overnight runs have moved the slider south and west by around 50 miles bringing huge swathes of mid and north wales into the firing line. And thats not forgetting the frequent snow showers hitting the same areas tonight and tomorrow. Somewhere in wales (and with very modest elevation) will exceed 20cms (8"). However exactly where that will be is still to be decided. All in all a very positive outlook for snow lovers in our snow starved part of the uk.
  6. So we are now on the cusp of our first noteable snowfall since Jan 2013. Here in Aberdare we had around 4-5" on the 18th/19th Jan. The last noteable snowfall in December was of course the infamous winter of 2010, so it's been a LONG wait. As is the case with these set ups; expect the unexpected. Thursday night/Friday I think is our best chance of seeing some snow across the WHOLE region.. Sat sees the showers dying out as pressure rises from the west. The real uncertainty comes on sat night into Sunday. The shallow low that is forecast to cross the UK is still causing issues f
  7. The difference between the 18z yesterday and the 12z of today.
  8. Imvho, I feel that none of the main 3 have got the track of this slider correct. All we can say right now is it has around a 2-300 mile zone to slide through. Also my feeling is that although the gfs has moved significantly towards the ECM, both will correct south and west nearer the time. This will go down to t12-t24 before it's nailed and even then it will be more about now casting and radar watching. Once we get into the range of the higher resolution models around 48-72 hours we can begin to get some more detailed idea as to who gets snow and who just gets wet!
  9. Gfs 6z looks like a rinse and repeat. Seems the cold always appears just before a weekend
  10. Although I'm sure many are wanting an early start to spring, I'm sure many on here would also like to see more snowfall. What is more encouraging next week is the blocking high comes from a mid Atlantic ridge. Far more room for error imo than a scandi ridge which notoriously gets modelled as HLB and ends of as a sceuro ridge come t0 with any cold uppers heading into Greece! So for me I'm quite excited how this is going to play out over the next 4-5 days. GFS is always good at spotting trends and now the ECM is sniffing around a similar theme. Expect some more support from the
  11. Earlier drizzle has now turned to snow blowing in the wind. Not sure if dew points have dropped a little this afternoon in our region?
  12. Yes and our cold N or NE being sent into the mid Atlantic whilst we are bathed in mild SW's one to watch and a very real option. Better than it showing us in the firing line only to back further and further West. Be nice to see that trend eastwards and give us in the UK winters final hurrah!
  13. Looks like the UKMO says yes to the GH IMO in 5 days time the charts will be showing our next cold spell but this time I have a feeling it will deliver to more of the UK and be coming from the N or NE and not the E or SE
  14. If we compare the UKMO and the ECMWF at 144 I think there is only one way the UKMO is going. As much as the ECM has been hated on, I still find it's evolution very believable and as Seasonality said, it spotted the breakdown of our current spell pretty well
  15. I have a feeling that we may well be seeing a few more hints of cold from the north in 10 days time. The ensembles toyed with them a day or so ago before dropping the theme but I've got a feeling the trend will be strengthened in the next few days giving us interest after this weekends cold.
  16. I'm quite liking the UKMO 144 chart. It wouldn't take much to see the 552 dam line appear just to the south of Greenland on the 168h chart
  17. As much as the ECM has been meligned this winter (or certainly in the run up to this cold spell), you cannot deny its output 168h plus being fairly close to the mark for next week and certainly sniffing out the sinking high and mild SSE winds that come with it. In fact the GFS also was sniffing around this idea. If you look generally at the models out to 144h (as that is the far reach of the UKMO) we will see that MOST of the output has been fairly consistent, even the verification stats back this up to a degree. I have said before and I will say it again. Anything beyond 120-140h
  18. Reading through today's posts I am in total disbelief at what I'm reading. People have incredibly short memories. Only 6 days ago this cold spell had next to no support from the Met and now we are staring down the barrel of 4-5 days of cold with snow in some locations. Those looking a week ahead do so at their own peril. 7 days is a HUGE amount of time in weather terms. Sit back, relax and enjoy the twists and turns that is model output. This tweet from 6 days ago sums it up.
  19. Indeed and just 10 days ago there would have been incredible excitement if this was showing when we were staring down the barrel of Atlantic drivel for the next 10 days!
  20. Hear hear Steve. I said in my post yesterday that I'm not really bothering about anything post 96-120h as the details are firming up every run. We now have a Scandi high, let's see how it evolves. Fascinating viewing for me anyway even if everyone else looking way ahead in la la land
  21. It's fascinating watching this spell unfold in this way. Whether it ends up a damp squib or delivers snow, it's really interesting. And very useful for future pushes from the east. Thank you for taking the time each day for doing these very informative posts. James
  22. Here's the 850 charts for same time and cold pool further west by 50-100 miles too
  23. Alignment of flow on southern flank of HP already moved by around 3-5 degrees more favourably than the 6z
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