JamesL

Quite remarkable Synoptics showing up this March. Especially given the fact that many have decent cold to tap into. How often in the past have we seen great charts but lacking in cold to tap into. It seems the cold over the pole keeps draining south and west. Is this still all to do with the second wave of SSW?

Cwmbach, Nr Aberdare this morning. Around 7" now and still snowing

Aproaching 6" here in Cwmbach and snowing steadily. Very powdery and quite remarkable for mid/late March

Jeeeeeez still goin on about Derek? Really? What used to be a decent forum has become a total farce. Get a grip people, you must all lead incredibly boring lives to still be talking about Derek after 2.5 weeks. He would be flattered to know that you're still talking about him. Im done here. Over and out

Quite fascinating. The Met Office's amber warning zone is the zone with no precip ??? I'm guessing there is more precip looking to move in later?

All this talk of Derek is getting boring. I think everyone has made their point clear. Be better concentrating on the weather conditions in Wales. Currently dry here in Cwmbach after earlier snow

Light snow now falling in Cwmbach north of Andy at the top of the Cynon Valley

Wishing all the SE contingent all the very best of luck for a good fall of snow over the next 48 hours. Having lived in N. Kent for 23 years I always keep abreast of what is happening weatherwise especially when it snows. I remember 1987, 1991, 2005 to name just a few of the great falls we've had around Sittingbourne on the Downs. Im now living in SE wales just below the Heads of the Valley and we've had a fantastic winter for snowfall. Now with another amber warning for Sunday here I await our 3rd foot of snow this winter. Quite remarkabke!

Indeed and it's almost a carbon copy of the area that the Red warning was issued for 2 weeks ago potentually up to 25cms I would guess for Heads of the Valleys again!!! We have had a great winter for snow

Haha notification just came through. Almost exactly the same warning area as the red one issued for us just over 2 weeks ago.

I'm intrigued to see how this plays out across southern central and SW England as well as Wales and whether we may see further amber warning appear further west.

Many thanks Mike ??looks like SE Wales could do pretty well again. 30cms in December 2017 40cms+ Feb/march 2018 ?? March not a bad winter here snow wise it must be said

Hi, When do these charts start from? Would they include any precip prior to the snow? Or is it purely snowfall? To be clearer, they start from when all the parameters for snow are met? Thank you

I am chuckling at this. "You would imagine...." you're probably better off not imagining and going on what the models are showing. 3-6 degrees is not being shown neither are 0-2 degree DP (normal exceptions of course) so going by the models (which is what the thread is about) 99% will see snow. If your boat is moored in Cornwall you may not see settling snow on the deck ?

Trust me there will be no marginality on Sunday wrt snow. Check out the DP's before making any conclusions. With a continental feed, 850's below 0 and DP's below 0 it will be snow

So it seems now there has been a shift north of the upper cold pool and subsequent instability. I did say it would need to move around 100 miles north to bring more of us into the game here in Wales. That now seems to be the case with some people experiencing snow depths of over 20cms in the SE of England in particular. Where does this leave us? Well my feelings are now that anywhere south of mid wales could well have falling snow that could accumulate. The further south and east the better the opportunity. I see that even Cardiff is again covered by the warning zone. So in the past 24 hours things have certainly got more interesting with a fragmenting cold front coming westwards on sat that could produce a little snow particularly with elevation, then over night and into Sunday the latest fax chart show a Channel low with associated trough across SE Wales which could produce more extensive and disruptive snow. So those areas that were hit two weeks ago look likely to get more of the white stuff over the weekend, albeit not with the intensity or severity that we had then. However it's a fluid situation and I expect there to be a few surprises (and disappointments) for us in Wales and I expect a few amber warnings issued especially in the east and south east of England for sat night into Sunday. Lets see how it plays out but there are very interesting times ahead

Thanks Steve and thanks for explaining your reasoning. I find this absolutely fascinating and while I read your post in my home here in SE Wales (where we had 40cms plus 2 weeks ago) I have my parents (who still live in our family home in Kent) sitting here next to me panicking. Esp as my father is travelling from Newnham over the Downs to Lenham and along to Gatwick very early Sunday morning to go......yep you've guessed it....skiing lol ? Could be Slightly ironic haha

I'm thinking along the same lines as Steve M. Having lived in Kent for over 23 years (on the N Downs) I have seen some tremendous LOCALISED totals where shower trains just dump snow for hours on end. The last Beast my parents had 8.5" of level snow between Faversham and Sittingbourne on the N Downs, whilst people down the road barely got a covering. You hit the jackpot here you could be looking at 25cms easily, even with precipitation limited to around 48 hours (maybe a little longer in Kent) Don't be surprised to see MO warnings turn orange in localised areas. The winds this time seem a little more NE so expect mid Kent to get hit hard rather than west Kent IMO

I must admit that the UKMO has been pretty much rock solid sending the upper cold pool just south of the UK. Will be fascinating where it ends up. My thoughts are still unchanged this morning. Parts of the SE (Kent in particular) could have 10-15cms and other parts from the Humber south a covering. The Channel Islands could also do well this time as they were a little too far south with the last beast. Time will tell but considering the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet I think we will have to wait intil the 12z tomorrow to firm up

So to the weekend and it looks unseasonably bitter this weekend BUT here in Wales I can't see a whole lot of snow especially on the 0z charts this morning as the main upper trough flirts with the SE and S Coast, Normandy and the Channel Islands. IMO if you're going to have -12 to -14 upper air in MARCH!! (Which is almost unprecedented) you have at least got to make it interesting with some snow. Our only saving grace would be if the upper trough is going to move north by 100 miles (which is possible as the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet), OR we get some decent solar heating and create our own inland showers (again which is very possible given the strength of the March sun) So although quite incredible depth of cold is shown for at least 2 days, the synopsis is fairly underwhelming if like me you want some snow. I do hope I'm proved wrong. I think by the 12z tomorrow we will have firmed up on the details of the upper cold pool and where it will and will not hit. Right now it looks like Kent could get hit with 10-15cms of snow overnight sat into Sunday and maybe some other southern most counties could scrape a covering. For Wales I just see a lot of blue skies and sunshine which out of the wind, should feel pleasant on your face despite the temps being only a degree or so above freezing. Id like to know others thoughts too.

We will agree to disagree andy. ?? And the Express comment was very tongue in cheek.

I think hindsight is a great thing. We can all look back at the models and see what they were showing BUT how often have they come to fruition? The Met were talking about a cold spell in the monthly outlook a couple of weeks prior but until they are fairly sure what the broad Synoptics are they can't just panic people Andy and go mainstream. That's just how it is. In an a ideal world we would all know (with certainty) when a high impact event will hit but in the chaotic world of weather it's just not possible. We will agree to disagree. Imo people were given a heads up a week or more before the events last week through forecasts and the media. Sometimes the responsibility has to lie with the public. There will always be those idiots that go out no matter what. That's life. 99% of people took the warnings seriously. And I will say again. The Met, BBC and other media outlets did a great job throughout. Hey even the Express got it right lol!

Totally agree ?? You only had to have seen the live updates from the A470 at 6pm Thursday night before the real heavy stuff started. One car every 30 seconds. Normally it would be a traffic jam. I think the message was taken on board. Remember that a red warning CANNOT be issued 12-24 or more hours before a severe event is "highly likely" To issue one would again be foolhardy and panic people unnecessarily. The Met and BBC IMHO did a very good professional job regarding the severe weather. Infact handled better than any other event in the last 10 years where there has been plenty of egg on faces

We have sleet here down in the valley in Aberdare. My guess is Tredegar across to Brynmawr will have another couple of inches of wet snow later on tonight/early tomorrow morning

I've got to admit I've always liked Derek and his enthusiasm for cold snowy weather. I'm normally so engrossed in the charts that I don't really look at the presenter, although BBC Wales does have some pretty awful ones. Always thought Derek was decent.