JamesL
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Posts posted by JamesL
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10 minutes ago, bradymk said:
Cardiff so almost as low as it gets!
Before Sunday, later today looks like a good chance for many inland areas too! Then tomorrow morning it looks like a dangler will set up in the west with colder air than currently. Plenty of chances, I think you'll see snow later in Aberdare
Well this weekend is certainly the best chance of the winter so far
I think Feb will bring something more noteworthy
At least this winter has been more interesting than last years. Apart from the horrendous flooding it was just mild and boring here with v little snow to speak of even on the hills 1400’ around Aberdare
This year I’ve had 3-4 trips out with my 3 yr old to play in the snow higher up
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2 minutes ago, bradymk said:
Haha agree! Definitely more confident than the other events so far, but what can go wrong usually does when you live at 10m!
Where do you live? It’s a pain not having people’s locations by their avatars on iPhone, you have to go into their profiles and it looks like you’re creeping on them
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1 minute ago, bradymk said:
Yes hoping so James! If the majority of models stay like they are, we'll all be fine. Its good to hear no rain mentioned in the warning. Your location should be especially well placed!
Only small worry is Arpege taking it to far south. Bound to be some uncertainty at this stage though and the majority of models are good for us all.
It’s nice to cherry pick the bad one this time as all major models point to a decent event
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Looks like a pretty decent chance for most of the country here.
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1 minute ago, bradymk said:
No mention of rain on Sundays warning. 1-3cm at low levels. 5-10cm above 100m.
The separate warning issued for today and tomorrow morning talks about rain/sleet at low coastal areas.
As Jamie says above, Sundays marginality for southern coastal areas is going to go down to how far north the precipitation is. We'd want to see some movement from EURO4 and Arpege in coming runs but I think Sunday is definitely the best chance of the winter so far.
100% pretty much no marginality on Sunday apart from possibly the immediate coast
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41 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:
Snow and Ice warning now issued by the Met Office.
Still some uncertaintiy around the event obviously and if things end up to far north then it becomes more marginal for those in the south, to far south and and its in the channel again.
Interesting to see how this one pans out
I think the event on early Sunday morning is going to be our best bet for widespread snow.
And looks like it’s coming through at the perfect time for Wales too.This system looks like it will deposit snow for most places unlike later today and tonight
I’m hoping here in Aberdare where we are over 100m we should get 2-4” by Sunday morning
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8 minutes ago, Snowguy said:
Very good analysis, what are your views on the Valleys down into Cardiff?
Personally I think the upper valleys from Hirwaun over to Brynmawr (HoV) will do well
lower down towards Ponty/Nantga’ will get a covering. Cardiff I expect falling snow but will be dependent on time of day and whether we have any solar heating before as to weather it settles
I’ll be heading over to Tredegar way and left off the HoV road into the Beacons, that’s where I expect the biggest totals and an ice day
ill grab some photos too and share them here
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As I mentioned yesterday I think a lot of Wales will get a covering over the next 36/48 hours
It now seems the dying cold front will be reinvigorated by a trough that lies to the NE and that is set to move through wales later tonight and tomorrow
I personally think there will be a few surprises
Dew points and uppers all favourable 5-10 miles inland as well as surface temps being sub zero
The sweet spot I expect to get 5-10cms with 1-3cms quite widely across the nation but particularly in mid and SE wales
That’s my take anyway
Views?
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You watch, Thursday night Friday morning will take everyone by surprise. I think a lot will be waking up to a covering. Ground temps much colder now and perfect timing re fronts movement over our area.
front seems to pep up over South Wales too plus it’s been modelled pretty consistently for a couple of days now
maybe the snow gods are on our side this time!!
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Seems many of the models put south and SE Wales in the firing line on Wednesday. Looks like the Heads of the Valleys could be esp prone
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Well a very interesting drive from Cwmbach to Merthyr. Well didn’t make it to Merthyr lol
Turned round too many abandoned vehicles
ironically the most snow we have had this year and it’s still autumn
at around 600’ theres a good 5cms and I’m guessing much more higher up
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Stopped completely now in Aberdare. The snow shower that lasted 10 minutes the other day left way more snow than this event.
There's no way the second front is going to make it here. As it hits land it's just evaporating further south.
Not quite sure why we are in an amber zone here. The heavy stuff just hasn't made it out of the south west
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Hmmmm
I'm a little sceptical about this event.
First front has died a death.
Second front appears to be heading north east missing S Wales entirely.
I await the thoughts of people a little more technically minded than myself
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Snowing here in Aberdare and just starting to settle but intensity will need to pick up and temp drop to see anything of note. Above 200m should do well esp SE and E facing slopes of the valleys and of course the H ot V too
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5 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:
The clue is under my name James, Pembroke, West Wales coast. Go the very end of the M4 and keep going until you get to the sea. I live on the edge of town and approx (as the crow flies) 3 miles from the coast x
I can't see I'm on my iPhone
I know it well. We have a house in Fresh East
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3 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:
I know they use 2 different systems, Met office has 'flip flopped' me all day at every update between hail, snow and rain. Tonight I've ended up with rain. Hence the 'zipped' mouth until I see the model runs for the morning. The other day I was hopeful of a flake or two of snow as the rain predicted was due to last well into the afternoon and 12 lunchtime was the clincher for me on the coast as that was when the upper atmospherics would be conducive to me getting a chance at some 'possible' snow.
As it was that weather system zipped through us much faster than forecast and was sunny by lunchtime just as the temps would have been more favourable.
We have cloud due through the night which will raise the temp to approx 4C and I might just end up with no snow but at the moment even on the coast we have a temp of -1.1C and a dew point of - 2.09C
The upper atmosphere is cold even for us, for a change and I'm just hoping it stays cold enough for a days snow...
Where on the coast are you from?
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It is important that people differentiate the met office forecast from that of the BBC. As you know the BBC no longer use Met office data so that's why there is disparity between the two
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What is very encouraging is the fact the ground temp will be close to freezing once precip starts thanks to a penetrating and severe frost for many rural areas tonight
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Evening All
well it's certainly looking like South, East and Mid Wales are going to get some pretty decent coverage tomorrow.
Favoured spots are as always elevation and exposure to the SE.
Heads of the Valleys look to be in the firing line as they were for our last snowfalls in March.
If I was a betting man I would say Brynmawr is my favoured location for the biggest totals, closely followed by Ebbw Vale and Tredegar
Here in Aberdare I'm expecting a decent cover but with some protection from the East I don't expect more than 5-10cms max here
We shall see. T minus 14 hours
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And the EC also shunting everything South as well following on from the UKMO.
For comparison here are 96/120/144
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UKMO looking like it's keeping the snow threat going across the UK with its 0z run. Difficult to know exactly as no access to the 850's
96/120/144
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If we look across the main 0z suites, then we could say that the colder weather has gained a little momentum today (except gfs) and shows sub -5 air straddled across the UK right out pretty much to day 10
Next week is certainly going to throw up some wintry surprises for some in the UK
Do not write winter off just yet. This has certainly got the potential to upgrade and nothing is set in stone yet.
I think tomorrow's 12z will throw a little more light on a likely outcome
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And the 6z gfs is keen to take us back into deep winter again just a week from now.
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UKMO slower yes but looking like the low around Iceland has nowhere to go but move SE as a trigger low sending all that cold over Scandi southwestwards
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Wales / Cymru weather discussion
Posted
Snow here