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Everything posted by JamesL

  1. I'm intrigued to see how this plays out across southern central and SW England as well as Wales and whether we may see further amber warning appear further west.
  2. Many thanks Mike ??looks like SE Wales could do pretty well again. 30cms in December 2017 40cms+ Feb/march 2018 ?? March not a bad winter here snow wise it must be said
  3. Hi, When do these charts start from? Would they include any precip prior to the snow? Or is it purely snowfall? To be clearer, they start from when all the parameters for snow are met? Thank you
  4. I am chuckling at this. "You would imagine...." you're probably better off not imagining and going on what the models are showing. 3-6 degrees is not being shown neither are 0-2 degree DP (normal exceptions of course) so going by the models (which is what the thread is about) 99% will see snow. If your boat is moored in Cornwall you may not see settling snow on the deck ?
  5. Trust me there will be no marginality on Sunday wrt snow. Check out the DP's before making any conclusions. With a continental feed, 850's below 0 and DP's below 0 it will be snow
  6. So it seems now there has been a shift north of the upper cold pool and subsequent instability. I did say it would need to move around 100 miles north to bring more of us into the game here in Wales. That now seems to be the case with some people experiencing snow depths of over 20cms in the SE of England in particular. Where does this leave us? Well my feelings are now that anywhere south of mid wales could well have falling snow that could accumulate. The further south and east the better the opportunity. I see that even Cardiff is again covered by the warning zone. S
  7. Thanks Steve and thanks for explaining your reasoning. I find this absolutely fascinating and while I read your post in my home here in SE Wales (where we had 40cms plus 2 weeks ago) I have my parents (who still live in our family home in Kent) sitting here next to me panicking. Esp as my father is travelling from Newnham over the Downs to Lenham and along to Gatwick very early Sunday morning to go......yep you've guessed it....skiing lol ? Could be Slightly ironic haha
  8. I'm thinking along the same lines as Steve M. Having lived in Kent for over 23 years (on the N Downs) I have seen some tremendous LOCALISED totals where shower trains just dump snow for hours on end. The last Beast my parents had 8.5" of level snow between Faversham and Sittingbourne on the N Downs, whilst people down the road barely got a covering. You hit the jackpot here you could be looking at 25cms easily, even with precipitation limited to around 48 hours (maybe a little longer in Kent) Don't be surprised to see MO warnings turn orange in localised areas. The wind
  9. I must admit that the UKMO has been pretty much rock solid sending the upper cold pool just south of the UK. Will be fascinating where it ends up. My thoughts are still unchanged this morning. Parts of the SE (Kent in particular) could have 10-15cms and other parts from the Humber south a covering. The Channel Islands could also do well this time as they were a little too far south with the last beast. Time will tell but considering the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet I think we will have to wait intil the 12z tomorrow to firm up
  10. So to the weekend and it looks unseasonably bitter this weekend BUT here in Wales I can't see a whole lot of snow ❄️ especially on the 0z charts this morning as the main upper trough flirts with the SE and S Coast, Normandy and the Channel Islands. IMO if you're going to have -12 to -14 upper air in MARCH!! (Which is almost unprecedented) you have at least got to make it interesting with some snow. Our only saving grace would be if the upper trough is going to move north by 100 miles (which is possible as the Scandi high hasn't even formed yet), OR we get some decent solar heating
  11. We will agree to disagree andy. ?? And the Express comment was very tongue in cheek.
  12. I think hindsight is a great thing. We can all look back at the models and see what they were showing BUT how often have they come to fruition? The Met were talking about a cold spell in the monthly outlook a couple of weeks prior but until they are fairly sure what the broad Synoptics are they can't just panic people Andy and go mainstream. That's just how it is. In an a ideal world we would all know (with certainty) when a high impact event will hit but in the chaotic world of weather it's just not possible. We will agree to disagree. Imo people were given a heads up a week or mo
  13. Totally agree ?? You only had to have seen the live updates from the A470 at 6pm Thursday night before the real heavy stuff started. One car every 30 seconds. Normally it would be a traffic jam. I think the message was taken on board. Remember that a red warning CANNOT be issued 12-24 or more hours before a severe event is "highly likely" To issue one would again be foolhardy and panic people unnecessarily. The Met and BBC IMHO did a very good professional job regarding the severe weather. Infact handled better than any other event in the last 10 years where there has been pl
  14. We have sleet here down in the valley in Aberdare. My guess is Tredegar across to Brynmawr will have another couple of inches of wet snow later on tonight/early tomorrow morning
  15. I've got to admit I've always liked Derek and his enthusiasm for cold snowy weather. I'm normally so engrossed in the charts that I don't really look at the presenter, although BBC Wales does have some pretty awful ones. Always thought Derek was decent.
  16. Yes I see what you mean. The hardest hit areas weren't even in the red zone. Any amateur knows the Heads of the Valleys would be hardest hit in a situation like that. However in fairness to Derek he can only go on what the Met give him
  17. Am I missing something what did or didn't Derek do? He warned of potential blizzards in wales many days ahead?! I'm confused
  18. After the chase and then seeing the event unfold, as well as not getting a whole lot of sleep through excitement, I'm knackered and definitely have the snow blues. I for one would love to see more snow but spring is here and for me now it's all about searching for spring warmth and the first day above 21c
  19. Snowing here in Cwmbach, Aberdare but there's a "drip drip drip"
  20. So are you in agreement with the short range models that show a period of heavy snow for SE Wales tomorrow morning?
  21. You're right!! Very interesting. Wonder why no mention?
  22. Very interesting watching the radar. The precip was over Whitland and then over the course of a couple of hours it back builds all the way east to just North of Swansea
  23. So three of the short range models have heavy snow over SE Wales by 5am tomorrow morning, yet NO MENTION on any Met Office forecast. I find this a little unnerving and odd
  24. It seems the front has now moved onto mid Wales and the Midlands. Is that it now, snow wise for the SE Wales crew? The forecast this morning talked of snow into the eve and night? Has this now changed? Cheers
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