Mr Frost

December 30, 2023

It is good to be home.

Gourock right now.

June 24, 2021

Evening all

Latest EC 46. (Just posting charts for the next two weeks)

500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies.

28/06 to 05/07 - North/West UK and Ireland looks the place to be for sunshine and warmest temperatures.

You can see the above average rainfall signal for Southern parts.

Latest Met Office outlook for SE England through the weekend.

Early next week and beyond.

So I would say all the above charts/text forecasts match up quite nicely.
Still high teens/low 20’s for Southern parts but the real risk of heavy thundery downpours and more prolonged rainfall at times down there.

05/07 to 12/07 - looks very decent for all.
Nothing nasty lurking there and temperatures above average.

Much to look forward too - especially in the North and West UK…settled/sunshine/warm the order of the day.

This will be one of my last posts in here as after two years of planning (and finally securing a job transfer with my current employer who is based in locations worldwide) my family (me, the mrs and toddler son) are moving to Tallahassee, Florida in the first week of September! (Current global pandemic/travel rules pending)
Will miss my beloved snowfall the most of course! Looking forward to the odd hurricane, supercell thunderstorm (tornado here and there) 30C + all summer long and of course thunderstorms in general on a regular basis.

It has been fantastic posting in here over the years and of course the Scottish thread! Always enjoyed reading everyone’s posts throughout this wonderful forum.
I shall see myself out now and join the tumble weed blowing North American thread in due course.

All the best to you all and take care!

June 9, 2021

47 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I reckon Paul will be back around/just after the solstice, when the 'big gun' NLCs come out to play. He's not interested in the child's play ones of the early NLC season.

Yes…you make a great point! One of my best display’s last year was just after midnight on June 22nd!

This was using my phone camera back then!

I was hanging out the window trying to be extremely quiet as to not wake up my partner and toddler son.

@mushymanrob got clear spells here now but not ideal with plenty of cloud cover to my N/NW/NE!
I shall be on the lookout however…until midnight at the latest!

June 9, 2021

10 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Further South a return to more widespread average temperatures overall by next Thursday/Friday?

Here it is…(looks quite wet at times also - especially N/W/SW UK)

ECM:

Next Thursday:

Friday:

Saturday:

As ever the further South and East you are…the better for decent temperatures!

Back to this Sunday and next Monday.
30C looks a good shout on both days. (Current output)

UKV for Sunday 18:00

Monday 15:00

All the above subject too many changes at this timeframe.

June 9, 2021

Morning all

You can see the ECM mean absolutely tank up here from Monday!
850hPa temp then ends up at +1 by 18/06 - rubbish stuff for mid June!

Glasgow:

Further South it’s not that bad…until 18/06 - 850hPa temp of +4 on that day.

Sheffield:

London a wee bit better for 18/06 with 850hPa temp of +6…this dropping to +5 by 19/06.

So a pretty uninspiring week of weather for here next week - temperatures below to near average at times with one or two spells of rain/drizzle and lots of cloud for the most part.
You just have to laugh really.

Further South a return to more widespread average temperatures overall by next Thursday/Friday?

Plenty of proper Summer weather before any of that - plus at this range no-one really has a clue what will arrive next week!
All we can do though is discuss what seems more probable from current models/charts/outlooks.

Sunday/Monday favoured for the highest maximum temperatures!
Sunday the best chance of hitting the 30C and putting that old weather enigma to bed once and for all! (Heathrow/Northolt looking good)
Don’t want to hear anything about dodgy weather stations in those locations if it does happen!
Every Summer it’s guaranteed once or twice - give us a break!

All the best to everyone and enjoy the warmth/heat/sunshine for the most part through the rest of this week and into early next week. (At least)

Make the most of it for me at least! Some of us don’t have that luxury of Summer weather currently or for the foreseeable.

Cheers!

June 8, 2021

No offence to anyone in here as I have joined in/posted pictures over the years…but does anyone really have a clue how to forecast noctilucent clouds in advance?
I have missed two displays here recently due to sleeping through them (seen local pictures on Facebook) - can’t stay up past midnight due to work Monday to Friday!

It’s quite frustrating as I have loved going out/hang out the window to view them in the past.
It seems previous years we had a better handle on them? (Last year for example)
Maybe I am talking nonsense! (Although it’s very confusing trying to get a grasp on what is going on from the posts above - it seems as though no-one has a clue! I mean that in the nicest possible way!)

Is it simply just a case of…on a clear night stay up late/early hours of the morning and hope for the best? (Plus check some European webcams?)

@Paul Sherman was a good source of information/timing/pictures last Summer - haven’t seen him in here so far this season! Are you still about mate? If yes, any thoughts/tips?

June 8, 2021

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

We dont *need* heat for a good Summer, although it helps.

*we* …speak for yourself mate!

Enjoy reading all the posts you make…but can’t agree here.

You keep telling us we don’t need heat. (You sound like my 69 year old Grandad)
I’ve had average June temperatures today with drizzle, average June temperatures tomorrow with heavy rain! If I had a whole Summer of this I certainly wouldn’t call It a good Summer.

If it’s average June temperatures alongside sunshine galore then great…but it won’t be. (That’s @Alderc point on the output he mentioned)

I don’t want stuff like this (charts below) to become reality.

EC46: 21/06 to 28/06 - average temperatures alongside this rubbish.

Heat is what makes a Summer special - hence the excitement over local/regional/national records during the season.
Nine times out of ten heat brings the top tier thunderstorms (or it used to in the SE ) Other areas seem to benefit more nowadays!

I know we all want different types of Summer weather but for me personally…average temperatures can sod off unless it’s going to be prolonged sunshine.

I am on here in Summer solely looking for heat/heatwaves, decent convective weather and any extreme weather type in general.

Some of the lads on this forum (reading different threads) don’t go out the house if temperatures are over 25C for fear of melting - it’s bonkers!
Totally respect that though…we are all different.

We register 30C+ up here in most Summer’s nowadays - maybe my bar has been set too high.

Anyways…bring on the heat. (At some point/stage up here!

Fair play to @Tamara - living the perfect Summer dream.

All the best!

June 8, 2021

It is not looking great up here from a warmth perspective…14/06 onwards on the old ECM 850hPa temperatures. (Mean plummeting)

Glasgow:

Further South…OP goes off on a much cooler outlier journey from 15/16th onwards. (Mean dropping a fair bit though on 18/06)

London:

That is all in the distant future of course!

Plenty of sunny/warm/hot weather for many throughout this week and into next Monday. (At the very least!)
Just make the most of that and worry/not worry about any breakdown/temporary breakdown next week.

Plus the mention of a thundery breakdown should get one or two a little excited at least.

Risk of 30C (plenty of warm/sunny days already in the bag and more for the week ahead) and thunderstorms/thundery rain within the first two/three weeks of Meteorological Summer isn’t too bad! Still July and August to come!
Very early doors in the season - loads of lovely/fine/warm/hot Summer days/nights ahead for us all hopefully.

Then we can skip Autumn and head straight into a freezing/frosty/snowmageddon Winter 2021/22. )

All the best to everyone!

June 8, 2021

7 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV is in fact showing 30c for Sunday.

Confusing business this - who’s version of the UKV do I believe then for the same timeframe? TheWeatherOutlook or Netweather!?

June 8, 2021

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, what do you think, folks? Will it or won't it?

It'll be close, IMO. Very close! But will the June 13th 'enigma' hold steady?!

I think it will fall!

UKV snapshot for Sunday 15:00 - surely a 30C in the bag. (Would be cruel if it maxed out at 29C. )

Also of interest the latest UKMO charts.

144: 850hPa temperatures (Monday 12:00)

Rain risk for quite a few of us. (Risk of thunderstorms in East Anglia!?)

168: 850hPa temperatures (Tuesday 12:00) - big drop in daytime maxima compared to twenty four hours earlier.

All subject to change this far out!

June 8, 2021

Morning all

Number of good posts above by @mb018538

UKV Friday 15:00

Saturday 15:00

Sunday UKMO 850hPa 12:00 - maximum (estimated) 28/29C?

Monday UKMO 850hPa 12:00 - maximum (estimated) 28/29C?

You can also see the rain starting to sneak into NW/W/SW parts (more widespread for Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland) of the UK and Ireland - track/detail on that…subject to change at this timeframe.

Marco (Media Advisor & Senior Operational Meteorologist with UK Met Office) sums it up nicely for the weekend. (This was from last night)

ECM OP again not far off the mean…for the most part! Takes a dive at the end.

London:

Glasgow: OP takes a dive a couple of times!

Next week still looking slightly warmer than average overall for many parts of the UK - near average for most of Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland.

14/06 to 21/06 (EC46)

Rainfall probably below average for the UK and Ireland for the same timeframe as above.

A very good start to the first two weeks of June for most - could be the third week of June before we even see a more widespread breakdown (average temperatures/rainfall) throughout the UK.
That could be a temporary breakdown!

As @mb018538 and @Uncertainy mentioned previously - July is shaping up nicely as well for more warmth/sunshine!

Summary…not much too moan about with regards to current weather and the short term! (Next six/seven days at least - especially the further South and East you are in the UK)

If anyone does have the right to moan…it should be me!

However - it’s the model output discussion thread (discuss the weather throughout the UK and Ireland ) and I am a team player/weather enthusiast who enjoys browsing the weather worldwide in every season of the year.

Enjoy the warmth/heat/sunshine and hopefully the storm enthusiasts can be rewarded with some decent activity at some stage of this spell.

Last Summer was decent at times for many. (Excluding July…which was rubbish for most!)

Lightning activity charts below.

June 2020

July 2020

August 2020

All the best!

June 7, 2021

As expected the ECM OP has gone off on one again in the final frames - warm outlier.
Again though…850hPa temperature still looking good!

London:

I know it’s warm for many at the moment but the real heat arrives Saturday.

UKV 15:00

Sunday 15:00

28C maximum on both days showing but you can see the potential for the first magical 30C of the year!

I love the weather in every season up here (especially Winter) but can honestly say I am totally jealous of you ladies and gents who live in the tropical SE England during Summer! Glorious at times.

June 7, 2021

Evening all

ECM this morning was a warm outlier from 15/06 to 17/06 - pretty close to the mean up to 14/06.

London:

Those are still impressive 850hPa temperatures though!

Parts of SE England will easily hit 28C (at least) on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. (Current output)

UKMO 850hPa for Saturday.

Sunday:

Monday:

Latest GFS for Monday:

Latest GEM for Monday:

As others have mentioned - looking very cool up here as we go through Monday! (Still low 20’s on the Sunday)

Typical the warmth gets swept away on the Monday…as I will be sitting in the Glasgow fan zone with three thousand people at 14:00 watching Scotland vs Czech Republic! (Easy win for us and then another easy win against England at Wembley on 18/06. )

Hopefully the ECM run will show something more promising shortly - doubt it though! (Up here)

Good to see the Met Office have finally caught up with the breakdown next week - certain models have been showing this for over a week!

12/06 to 21/06

Hopefully we can push it back a wee bit and enjoy some more settled/sunny/warm weather! Plus as others have noted…it looks like a temporary breakdown! Could be bathing in warm/sunshine again through the final week of June.

Anyways - plenty of fine/sunny/warm/hot weather at times for many of us over the next seven days!

Enjoy!

June 6, 2021

13 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I note references to the ec seasonal above ....... early dec ramp sees high slp anomoly to our nw and higher than average precip across the central med area ......

Let’s see a continued trend over the next few months - more blue on that temperature chart please as we get closer to Winter.

Anyways - back to the here and now!

Latest ECM charts for 216 and 240 are going straight in the bin!

Massive cold outlier for Glasgow!

Hopefully this is a load of rubbish as well for up here!

ECM 192:

Glorious though for many of my English friends!

Fairly typical Summer output - parts of SE/E England with the hottest temperatures over the next seven days.
Warmth extending to many other parts of England. (Not quite as hot but still low 20’s…Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle ect ect)
NE/E/SE Scotland high teens/low 20’s.
Me…warm days, wet days and cooler days.

I am always looking for something extreme in every season - does not look as though (current output/outlook) we are going to beat the highest daily maximum temperature on record for the month of June!

England: 29th June 1957, 35.6C, Camden Square, London.
28th June 1976, 35.6C, Southampton Mayflower Park.

Northern Ireland: 30th June 1976, 30.8C, Knockarevan, County Fermanagh.

Scotland: 18th June 1893, 32.2C, Ochtertyre, Perth and Kinross.

Wales: 18th June 2000, 33.7C, Machynlleth, Powys.

More than likely safe for another year - check out that Scottish one though! 1893!!!??! Surely in a warming world we can smash that out the park.

Finally going back to the latest ECM seasonal - September was looking alright.
Temperatures average to slightly above.
Only threat of anything slightly above average rainfall wise for parts of N/NW/W Scotland.

I don’t believe anything these seasonal models churn out months in advance…but after a Winter that began in December 2020 and ended in May 2021…I’ll bank anything that shows a hint of Summer weather extending into Autumn!

Have a good week everyone!

Cheers!

June 6, 2021

Afternoon all!

Hope everyone is well.

Let’s start with the month of May!

Mean temperature - very cool/chilly month overall.

Rainfall amount - Very wet for many of us.

Sunshine duration - below average/dull for most.

Days of air frost - above average for many.

May was also another well below average month (mean temperature) for Scotland! That is now four for us in total. (Three of those well below)

Only March has been above average this year!

Current weather/week ahead…best of the sunshine/warmth will be in parts of the N/NE/E/SE!

Western parts more at risk of cloud and some rain/drizzle - midweek especially.
Feeling warm though throughout and lovely when the sun is shining!

Few GFS temperature snapshots for next week - Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. (All 15:00)

Never to be trusted of course but fits in with the general theme/outlook.

Quick look at the latest seasonal outlooks.

Met Office Summer forecast.

Near average temperatures/rainfall overall.

Latest ECM seasonal outlook - temperature and rainfall anomaly below.

July: Temperatures average to slightly above and average rainfall.

August: More of the same!

So a pretty average Summer forecast overall for us - nothing nasty lurking with regards to above average rainfall or below average temperatures!

We all know not to take these seasonal forecasts as gospel…but always worth a wee glance/read at least for any season of the year.

All the best!

June 6, 2021

46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be in for some perfect summer weather: reasonable temperatures, reasonable amounts of sunshine and reasonable amounts of rain:

That sums up it all up nicely at the moment - latest Summer seasonal forecasts would agree.

Latest Met Office Summer outlook overall (June, July and August) - issued 24/05.

Near average temperatures/rainfall most likely.

Latest ECM Seasonal forecast - issued 01/06.

July temperature and rainfall anomaly - average to slightly above temperatures for the UK.
Warmest SE UK.
Average rainfall.

August - more of the same.

I was hoping for more of a heat signal to be honest! (personal preference)

As ever all subject too many changes at this timeframe.
Hard enough at times for models to get the forecast correct within twenty four/forty eight hours.

Current outlook for the rest of June - plenty of sunny/warm weather up until mid month showing on the models currently - lovely stuff! (Risk of showery rain/showers at times as noted by others)

Still that wee signal for something a bit more unsettled (flagged up for a while now - EC46) overall for many parts of the UK and Ireland as we go through the second half of this month.

GEM day ten:

GFS day ten:

ECM day ten:

Further S/SE you are the better - standard Summer chat!

All the best to you all and enjoy the great Summer weather currently/week ahead - glorious conditions at times for many of us. (Some rubbish as well - especially up here in Western Scotland on Wednesday )

June 3, 2021

Evening all

Hope everyone is well.

Barely looked at any model run for days - weather has been fantastic! Low 20’s and plenty of sunshine.
Today…not so much warmth/sunshine.

Latest EC46. (Just looking up to 28/06)

Weekly mean 500 hPa, temperature and rainfall anomalies.

07/06 to 14/06 - temperatures well above average and drier than average.
Proper Summer charts.

14/06 to 21/06 - Temperatures still above average for most! Average for parts of NW Scotland and parts of NE/E/SE England.
Risk of something more unsettled as we go through this week.

21/06 to 28/06 - Mixed bag and cooler for many. (Temperatures still average for most though)

To be honest I would bank that run - strong signal for a warm and mostly dry first half of June at the very least!

All the best!

May 31, 2021

Edit: Temperatures still creeping up!

Hottest temperature of the year so far in the UK!

This would have been the first Spring in recorded history…when the maximum temperature was registered in the month of March!
Beaten on the last day of Meteorological Spring.

Meteorological Summer begins tomorrow of course! Expected temperatures…Glasgow 25C, Prestwick 25C, Altnaharra 26C and Kinloss 27C! (Just to name a few)

Proper start to Summer for many!

I would take 25 to 30C all Summer long - unfortunately no chance of that in Scotland.

Hopefully similar temperatures/sunny for June 14th when we spank the Czech Republic at Hampden!

May 30, 2021

14 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Interesting temp profile this evening, west is definitely best

Indeed! High of 21C here today - sun is still beating down.
Current temperature 17.7C - lovely/fine Spring night.

Big issue with haar/sea fret/low cloud on quite a few NE/E/SE UK coastal locations.

Another great example.

May 30, 2021

Morning all!

Feels and smells like Summer out there - expecting 21C here today!
Lovely warm late afternoon/evening last night - sunset was decent also.

Temperatures have not been bad at all over the last couple of days.

Friday maximum was up in the Highlands.

Yesterday maximum was SW England.

Can we top the highest temperature of Spring so far tomorrow? (24.5C)
We have a good chance!

15:00

Tuesday 15:00 - warming up even more. (25/26C)

Wednesday 12:00 - warming up even more! (26/27C)

Risk of torrential downpours/thunderstorms breaking out in SW/W/NW parts of the UK and Ireland. (Extending further inland and up into Scotland)

Thursday 15:00 - cooler in the West…warmer in the East. (All subject to change at this range!)

Get out and enjoy it everyone! Glorious stuff - especially the next few days.

All the best!

Edit: Yes @minus10 - through the window.
Although on the other side of the coin…low cloud, mist and fog obscure the view about fifty days per year!

May 29, 2021

Another glorious/warm late afternoon/evening - sunset through the window.

Expecting a maximum of 21C here tomorrow and plenty of sunshine once the early morning mist burns off!
Much more widespread sunshine throughout Scotland! Risk of some scattered showers breaking out - mainly over higher ground/hills.
Very cool in some East coast locations - current output showing St Andrews struggling to hit 12C! (Depending on any haar hanging around)

Snapshot for 14:00

All the best!

May 24, 2021

1 hour ago, Hawesy said:

The May misery continues. After just 3mm of rainfall in April, the May total is standing at 135mm or 276% of the May average (Leuchars figures). Oh and it’s also been cold with below average sunshine. Is it June yet?

Woeful isn’t it?

This was the rainfall amount anomaly up until 18/05.
Will be interesting to see the final statistics at month end.
Current total here is roughly 95% of the May average.

Below average (temperatures) month is also guaranteed now.

This sums it all up!

d59fd073f92b9c7bfd2b1e85fd279edc-social-

Scotland sets ‘shocking and unusual’ weather record

NEWS.STV.TV

Temperatures across the country fail to rise above 20C by this stage of May for first time in nearly 40 years.

We (Scotland) have not officially registered 20C this year! Last time that happened was…1983!

Good news is we finally have some decent weather ahead - especially Thursday to Sunday. (West/Central parts warmer/sunnier throughout this period - extending elsewhere through the weekend)
Only downside at the moment is the threat of rain/drizzle on Friday for a wee while.

20C should finally be reached on Sunday - Glasgow/Moray looks a good shout on current output.

So a decent final few days of May at least!
I don’t think we will forget Spring 2021 in a hurry - especially April!

Hopefully everyone enjoys some warmth/sunshine later in the week/weekend - it’s about wibbleing time!

Oh and lovely picture @chemikal - love Ben Lomond…from a distance! Been up on the summit twice - never again though as it’s easily the busiest Munro in all of Scotland! Reminded me of walking up/down Argyle Street (Glasgow city centre) - heaving with people!

All the best!

May 8, 2021

Pretty decent outlook tomorrow - as ever all subject too many changes at this timeframe!

Risk of a few early morning storms in the Channel - chance they reach the Kent coast. (Folkestone, Dover ect ect)

Pretty sure @staplehurst mentioned this (Sunday morning risk) in his outlook issued this morning.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

UKV/Met Office snapshots below:

Sunday 06:00