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shotski

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Everything posted by shotski

  1. Hi John, The ECM 12z has turned my head tonight, lets just say its starting to load.
  2. OMG not going to go in the MOD thread tonight after THAT ECM 12z run, just remember its only one run (at the moment)
  3. Just found myself scraping all the tasty faty bits from the bottom of the roasting tin after a lovely roast chicken, does this mean we're in for a cold winter
  4. I think the outcome in a weeks time is going to be very similar to this from the JMA. With high pressure just north of the UK.
  5. I think at this stage the best we can hope for is a continuing mid Atlantic block or the high pressure to sit over the Uk. The last thing we need is a scandi high that would keep that area above average and pump mild air exactly where we don't want it this early in the season. Unfortunately I think a Scandi high could be where we are heading. Shotski
  6. I think we need to look at the long range anomaly charts for a clearer picture in the next couple of weeks NOAA and JMA both say no to a return of anything zonal and still show a blocked picture, Mid latitude at least. Shotski
  7. There could be more to this than meets the eye, second biggest typhoon to hit that area was typhoon wanda in the year 1962, the rest was history.
  8. Hi John, hows things ? Its looking like we are going to be on the good side, if you like cold, of a mid Atlantic block. Low pressur over Iberia is a massive boost for us in the Uk as it will help to prop up the high to the north of us, JMA anomaly charts show a possible link up early December for a Scandi/Greenie cross polar High.
  9. Loving FI of the GFS , something is afoot for sure. Meanwile the CFS is like a dog with a bone and has been showing an easterly now for several days for the end of the month, before you scoff at the CFS remember how it performed last March
  10. Hi all, I have a good feeling about this winter and think we could see a cold end to November and possibly going on into December. although the pattern may look very zonal there is def a change on the way, the azures high keeps ridging up towards greenland but at the moment is getting pushed back by the cold polar vortex. What we need is for pressure to drop over iberia and southern europe and that in turn will support a rise in pressure to the north of the uk ( flip flop) JMA long range anomalies charts are showing this could happen in about 10 days time. Happy sledging .
  11. Deep lows ????? Oh yeh must be that 1015 mb one to the left
  12. Yes, but to say there is not high pressure over greenland is false. certainly not a raging pv over that area, 1035 mb in fact.
  13. Nice to see and I hope it comes of but a Scandi high in November is as rare as a tits on a fish. Shotski
  14. JMA ensemble forecast would seem to back up ECM at day 10 for a rise in pressure to our north east. But possibly a little too East to greatly affect our weather. Shotski.
  15. Afternoon all, Thinking about coming out of my summer hibernation period, I'm getting that autum feeling Edit: its still morning
  16. Post of the day so far, no point reacting to each operational run etc. JMA long range ensembles underline what John is saying, strong anomaly even out to weeks 3-4 showing a strong signal for northern blocking to continue.
  17. Whats all this talk of retrogression ? Am I missing something ?
  18. Do I remember the Met office and I think it may have been Ian Fergusson expessing a concerne for a major snow event in 10 days time ? I seem to remember it was posted late last week and caused a bit of a stir in here. Are the Met office still thinking along these lines ?
  19. Yeh, they show the 12z operational to be a MASSIVE mild outlier but I'm not going to show you it
  20. God I hope your right, but I can only see 4 or 5 scenarios that would produce a true undercut.
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