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Everything posted by shotski
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 25/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Ooooh you tease. -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 25/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Hi John, The ECM 12z has turned my head tonight, lets just say its starting to load. -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Why ? I like puppies to Mmmmm so soft- 768 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Better !!!!! Thats 2010 like John- 768 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
OMG not going to go in the MOD thread tonight after THAT ECM 12z run, just remember its only one run (at the moment)- 768 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 14/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Just found myself scraping all the tasty faty bits from the bottom of the roasting tin after a lovely roast chicken, does this mean we're in for a cold winter- 768 replies
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Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >
shotski replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the outcome in a weeks time is going to be very similar to this from the JMA. With high pressure just north of the UK. -
Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >
shotski replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think at this stage the best we can hope for is a continuing mid Atlantic block or the high pressure to sit over the Uk. The last thing we need is a scandi high that would keep that area above average and pump mild air exactly where we don't want it this early in the season. Unfortunately I think a Scandi high could be where we are heading. Shotski -
Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >
shotski replied to chionomaniac's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think we need to look at the long range anomaly charts for a clearer picture in the next couple of weeks NOAA and JMA both say no to a return of anything zonal and still show a blocked picture, Mid latitude at least. Shotski -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
There could be more to this than meets the eye, second biggest typhoon to hit that area was typhoon wanda in the year 1962, the rest was history.- 796 replies
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South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Hi John, hows things ? Its looking like we are going to be on the good side, if you like cold, of a mid Atlantic block. Low pressur over Iberia is a massive boost for us in the Uk as it will help to prop up the high to the north of us, JMA anomaly charts show a possible link up early December for a Scandi/Greenie cross polar High.- 796 replies
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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013
shotski replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Loving FI of the GFS , something is afoot for sure. Meanwile the CFS is like a dog with a bone and has been showing an easterly now for several days for the end of the month, before you scoff at the CFS remember how it performed last March -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13
shotski replied to Snowangel-MK's topic in Regional
Hi all, I have a good feeling about this winter and think we could see a cold end to November and possibly going on into December. although the pattern may look very zonal there is def a change on the way, the azures high keeps ridging up towards greenland but at the moment is getting pushed back by the cold polar vortex. What we need is for pressure to drop over iberia and southern europe and that in turn will support a rise in pressure to the north of the uk ( flip flop) JMA long range anomalies charts are showing this could happen in about 10 days time. Happy sledging .- 796 replies
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Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013
shotski replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Deep lows ????? Oh yeh must be that 1015 mb one to the left -
Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013
shotski replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, but to say there is not high pressure over greenland is false. certainly not a raging pv over that area, 1035 mb in fact. -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 11/10/13 ------------>
shotski replied to Methuselah's topic in Regional
Nice to see and I hope it comes of but a Scandi high in November is as rare as a tits on a fish. Shotski -
Model Output Discussion - 17th Oct Onwards
shotski replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
JMA ensemble forecast would seem to back up ECM at day 10 for a rise in pressure to our north east. But possibly a little too East to greatly affect our weather. Shotski. -
South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 17/09/13 ------------>
shotski replied to Methuselah's topic in Regional
Afternoon all, Thinking about coming out of my summer hibernation period, I'm getting that autum feeling Edit: its still morning -
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013
shotski replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Hi PJ Where is he going / gone to ?- 2,514 replies
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Model Output Discussion - Heading Away From Easter
shotski replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Post of the day so far, no point reacting to each operational run etc. JMA long range ensembles underline what John is saying, strong anomaly even out to weeks 3-4 showing a strong signal for northern blocking to continue. -
Whats all this talk of retrogression ? Am I missing something ?
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Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...
shotski replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Do I remember the Met office and I think it may have been Ian Fergusson expessing a concerne for a major snow event in 10 days time ? I seem to remember it was posted late last week and caused a bit of a stir in here. Are the Met office still thinking along these lines ? -
Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...
shotski replied to Coast's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
That would be the four cornered triangle then -
Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....
shotski replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yeh, they show the 12z operational to be a MASSIVE mild outlier but I'm not going to show you it -
Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....
shotski replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
God I hope your right, but I can only see 4 or 5 scenarios that would produce a true undercut.