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Everything posted by Frank Trough
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We just have to hope the ECM/UKMO are right at that they hold their position while GFS/GEM show something a bit more appealing. The latter two models are really showing just unpleasant wet weather for our region for the most part. Certainly not something that would live long in the memory. As i said previously, the whole risk/reward southwesterly push is not for me. There were a few GFS runs a while back that were suggesting a bit more of a sinking high that would have sat around delivering dry and cold weather. Sadly that got ditched fairly quickly. Can't help feeling that (as nearly always) we'll be looking out our windows watching the rainfall totals mount up while the MOD thread is deserted because anyone north of the M4 is discussing their snow in the regionals.
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down here any falling flakes of snow is an event so i'll be happy to see a couple today if we can manage it. I'm not especially excited at the prospect of high risk encroachments from the southwest next week because they generally end up as wet for us and we really don't need any more rain. Cold and dry until March would do me
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Frank Trough replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Depends how you look at it - I think it’s the best outcome on offer. It’s dry throughout and as you say seasonal and cold latterly and looks good. happy to play the longer game and stay dry and cold as long as possible. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Frank Trough replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I actually like the GFS theme of not pushing the heights into Greenland. Less chance of an incursion and "battleground" which invariably ends up as rain here that we don't need...although people further north will disagree. This looks dry and very cold at the surface and would help dry things out. It would be very seasonal. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Frank Trough replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A scandy high is better for that rather than blocking around Greenland for my neck of the woods. Any west based creep from a greeny high and “high risk high reward” scenarios usually end in tears here. Most other places will do fine, though. personally I just it to be dry for as long as possible- decent cold and snow a bonus. -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
Frank Trough replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS continues to signal a period that could deliver quite high rainfall totals, especially out west. Flooding stays as the major weather issue for christmas/new year period if correct. Let's hope the drier, colder ECM is nearer the mark. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frank Trough replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Unless you like rain, the lead up to Christmas is dire. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frank Trough replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
we can talk about upstream and downstream and boundaries between mild and cold until the cows come home. The actual weather story in the build up to christmas - as modelled at present - is bucket loads of rain. -
I was looking at this earlier. Naturally it doesn't get a mention on the model threads (a potential Scandinavian High in January is the talk of the town) but it looks increasingly likely that flooding will be the disruptive weather of choice in the lead up to christmas. Just right for the school holidays.
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Frank Trough replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
definitely does for what i consider "the south". Anything above winchester is "the north" as far as i'm concerned.....:) -
I’ve got Monday off to go fishing so it’s an absolute given that the rain will March in on Sunday without any issues at all and then proceed to dump on us for three days solid swelling the rivers to unfishable levels. this cold spell has really irritated me. Even more than previous ones. I did not enjoy my sisters pictures from London on Sunday and did not share the joy! i don’t even want another cold spell this winter. Balls to it. Don’t want to see a “block”, a-5 line or anything that even resembles an easterly flow. It can all do one. there. I said it
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ridiculous. Our school seems to think people can just change their working pattern at short/zero notice to suit their random early finish times, weather closures, parents evenings...... I can remember the good old days in the 80's of crowding around the radio listening to the school closures on radio solent hoping we were included (and that was when there genuinely was snow on the ground)