[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

But look at this profile for the US….I anticipate the jetstream to suddenly ‘unfire’

 

Going to be a very interesting week of model watching

BFTP

Sort of, although had some of the mean charts that showed robust heights and the talk of highs shuffling around at high latitudes converted into a memorable cold spell then we would have all been in the regionals measuring our snow this week. 
 

snow for some but overall a fairly standard cold snap for what is the heart of winter. 
 

we then have 7/10 days (minimum) of westerlies with euro heights to take us into the last knockings of proper winter.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

3 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

Thanks to @Ali1977 for this! 

Cold rain my favourite weather type on already saturated ground

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

Met Office 10day outlook this morning suggested this

Must have changed their mind again.

That looks GFS/ICON. Arpege joins UKMO in saying no. I think the arpege is quite good normally. 
 

still, I think there is hope. Let’s see what ECM reckons. I guess then FAX charts will come into play soon too.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

GFS also further north with a glancing blow this isn’t over yet

Edit - but fair to say UKMO says “no”. 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

The mighty Icon brings the precipitation further north again with it  glancing the coast. It still has a very marginal feel along the coastal strip to it for me though.
 

I wasn’t expecting that - having seen things generally trend south I was assuming that would be that. 
 

see what the others make of it - it is just the icon 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

25 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

When is everyone realistically going to start believing something will happen for us?

I think the precip will end up south mid week if I’m honest. I’ve been hoping for that in the hope that digging the cold south will keep us dry longer. Sort of true but unfortunately it looks like a meek breakdown to rain anyway a couple of days later anyway. 
 

Mrs Trough will be sharpening her pencil ahead of putting my jobs list together for 22nd 23rd

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

ECM Looks like the GFS 06z op at t168.

That little nose of high pressure - but will be quickly pushed aside as Atlantic pushes in.

possibly. Maybe.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

ECM goes south. Bang in the 30% option

A bit of a shift for ECM op. Looks like UKMO now

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

7 minutes ago, AWD said:

Just seen a rare bit of useful information posted in the model thread.  Latest from MetO regarding midweek snowfall,

A lot can & will change still, it’s a good few days away still but always interesting to hear what the professionals think.  Seems as though our region is still in with a chance of seeing some of the elusive white stuff, albeit that chance decreases the further north one is in the region.

Only a 20% risk of it being north enough to deliver rain IMBY…….let’s see. I’ve been convincing myself (from experience) that if we do see the precip far enough north it will be too marginal for subtropical Iford. The met office clearly disagree with me

awaiting ECM…….

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

28 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Marvellous! What a season we're having I'd much prefer to stay in the championship! I reside on Dartmoor these days but the local pub ran a mini bus up to st marys for the argyle game, I was on the bus stood in the home end they went in the away end -  the bus was very quiet going back 

this season has been so much more enjoyable than the last of couple of years in the Prem. Can't believe people still haven't warmed to RM!! 

Anyway......on to the 12zs later beginning with a bit of ICONNERY again. Seems like there is growing uncertainty within ECM and GFS about the midweek low next week (according to a much more knowledgeable post on the mod thread) so that will be interesting to see how it plays out later. 

I'm with UKMO from this morning all day long

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Think it was valentines day the 94 one. Being a saints fan, I'm sure saints played that night on sky with the snow falling (could of been against liverpool)

i too am a Saints fan  i was remembering the same event - i didn't watch but Saints won (i think). I walked with my mates along Ryde Seafront to seaview in the snow. Think it melted the next afternoon.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

True, depends on the wind direction i guess, if it maintains an easterly you should be alright but as you know its such a fine line to get the orientation of a channel low just right for the coast. I grew up over in purbeck and i remember we had a great fall in 1994. Everything was perfect. I think it was the following year or 96 a similar set up to start with had us more snow but the veered quickly to a southerly and it was all over!

i think i remember the 1994 (i grew up on the Isle of Wight) one. There were a couple around then but things seem to have gradually gone downhill since then for the most part. 

Even in that ECM set up you probably wouldn't have to go far inland from here to see a bit of snow

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

it may just be my perception, but is this lobe of high pressure starting become more of a feature? 

i guess maybe just GFS. Would like to see that undercut

 

edit - beaten to to it! 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 hours ago, festivalking said:

Indeed. If you like snow espcially in Devon and Cornwall then you'll really want the latest ECM run to happen. Sadly it won't be exactly like this but shows the snow chances are still there for our region. You'd expect the snow line to get up toward the M4 with even the coasts initially getting in on the action.

 

i was quite surprised at the ECM this morning - i looked at UKMO/GEM/GFS first and all had the precip further south so i was sort of expecting ECM to keep it away. Interesting - but experience tells me that it would probably be mostly rain for here. 

edit - 06z GFS keeps precip south as well. 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, jy said:

I did sadly really tough session been fishing so we'll before the cold arrived

Water temps have taken a real hit. 
 

the ECM is nearer UKMO so that’s good. Keeps the rain at bay that little bit longer and keeps us in the cold game longer

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Don't think it's a big risk. Waving and static fronts are higher flood risks than windy depressions usually.

Ground is saturated. Some river catchments are still well above “normal” high level and any quick return to what is shown on GFS and GEM will definitely carry the risk of flooding again. In addition, we seem incapable of getting just a bit of rain now - everything seems to feel the need to last 5 hours and be torrential.

we can only hope that a westerly return should it occur (and most I think agree it will) is short lived for the sake of those affected by high water levels.

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

18 minutes ago, jy said:

I predict we will get snow next week.All about small luck margins.I was fishing in the bitter cold this afternoon.Two swans flew over me and the second one crapped on my head.This is meant to be lucky.

I hope you didn’t blank? 
 

we NEED the UKMO to be on the money here and hope ECM backs it up. GFS and GEM are wet and miserable  

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

23 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Of course there will be ... We were only allowed 4 days of sun!

Oh another note this post is pure quality!

i laughed at that too. Nail and head!  

bored of work.....12zs beginning. Time for a bit of ICONERY...

 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

06z GFS = BANK as far as i'm concerned up to t+220. Another 50 miles south on the front and i'll be even happier. If that's anywhere near correct then Mrs Trough can shred her jobs list 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

4 minutes ago, swebby said:

2018, the correction south started to appear about 3 days before the snow hit and was only accurately modeled about 24 hrs before hand. I remember the toys leaving the pram big time in the MAD thread as many north of Gloucester had taken it for granted a week before hand that they were going to be snowed in. 

While a correction South is certainly plausible, a much more progressive incursion of the warm air can not be discounted. I always take the view that us living on the south coast west of Sussex should just assume rain and take any snow as an unexpected bonus.

 

yes, rain is always my assumption for the Costa del Bomo in these sort of situations (to be fair, if snow was everything then i wouldn't live here so i can't complain too much :)) . 2018 was perfect for here because it came from a cold easterly and we retained the cold continental air as the front slid along. That said, inland from here still did better in terms of accumulations. 

I'd like to see the front stay well away to be honest - send it through France. Keep the cold dry theme as long as we possibly can and see what plays out. 

I've monday and tuesday 22nd and 23rd booked off hoping to do a bit of fishing on the stour or avon. If we can stay dry i think they'll be in decent condition - any rain (unless very light and brief) is going to mean that Mrs Trough will have a "list of jobs" for me instead. So i am a bit biased here.....

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

These “southward corrections” that “always happen” need to start showing fairly soon. I.e. everything needs to look like a slightly more south ECM from here on. 

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Just correct a little to the south please.

Is that forecast generated from the UKMO - or some sort of combination? 
 

5 degrees and rain is just wonderful. Just what’s needed

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

41 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:

Goodness me, I thought they only put the orange ones in there to put people off?

As for next week looks like good agreement this morning from GFS, GEM and ECM of a channel slider for day 6 with the Atlantic barging back in by day 9/10. 

Hmmmmm. ECM the pick for us this morning. The rest look like they have the potential to be wet rather than white IMBY. 

then yep, can easily see another period  of unsettled westerly weather and thoughts turning to flooding again. Let’s hope it’s short lived. 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

That ECM run is horrific. Everything fell into place in the wrong way.

Highly unlikely that everything would so perfectly wrong like that.

Isn’t that what normally does happen?

[South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

3 hours ago, That ECM said:

Met update now says sleet/ snow band. Suggests to me any approaching low is south?

I loved the UKMO this evening. Too much to ask that the ECM sides with it? Hope not.

edit - would take a euro high over that crud from the ECM. Flooding issues more likely than anything else.