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Frank Trough

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Everything posted by Frank Trough

  1. Sort of, although had some of the mean charts that showed robust heights and the talk of highs shuffling around at high latitudes converted into a memorable cold spell then we would have all been in the regionals measuring our snow this week. snow for some but overall a fairly standard cold snap for what is the heart of winter. we then have 7/10 days (minimum) of westerlies with euro heights to take us into the last knockings of proper winter.
  2. That looks GFS/ICON. Arpege joins UKMO in saying no. I think the arpege is quite good normally. still, I think there is hope. Let’s see what ECM reckons. I guess then FAX charts will come into play soon too.
  3. GFS also further north with a glancing blow this isn’t over yet Edit - but fair to say UKMO says “no”.
  4. The mighty Icon brings the precipitation further north again with it glancing the coast. It still has a very marginal feel along the coastal strip to it for me though. I wasn’t expecting that - having seen things generally trend south I was assuming that would be that. see what the others make of it - it is just the icon
  5. I think the precip will end up south mid week if I’m honest. I’ve been hoping for that in the hope that digging the cold south will keep us dry longer. Sort of true but unfortunately it looks like a meek breakdown to rain anyway a couple of days later anyway. Mrs Trough will be sharpening her pencil ahead of putting my jobs list together for 22nd 23rd
  6. ECM Looks like the GFS 06z op at t168. That little nose of high pressure - but will be quickly pushed aside as Atlantic pushes in. possibly. Maybe.
  7. Only a 20% risk of it being north enough to deliver rain IMBY…….let’s see. I’ve been convincing myself (from experience) that if we do see the precip far enough north it will be too marginal for subtropical Iford. The met office clearly disagree with me awaiting ECM…….
  8. this season has been so much more enjoyable than the last of couple of years in the Prem. Can't believe people still haven't warmed to RM!! Anyway......on to the 12zs later beginning with a bit of ICONNERY again. Seems like there is growing uncertainty within ECM and GFS about the midweek low next week (according to a much more knowledgeable post on the mod thread) so that will be interesting to see how it plays out later. I'm with UKMO from this morning all day long
  9. i too am a Saints fan i was remembering the same event - i didn't watch but Saints won (i think). I walked with my mates along Ryde Seafront to seaview in the snow. Think it melted the next afternoon.
  10. i think i remember the 1994 (i grew up on the Isle of Wight) one. There were a couple around then but things seem to have gradually gone downhill since then for the most part. Even in that ECM set up you probably wouldn't have to go far inland from here to see a bit of snow
  11. it may just be my perception, but is this lobe of high pressure starting become more of a feature? i guess maybe just GFS. Would like to see that undercut edit - beaten to to it!
  12. i was quite surprised at the ECM this morning - i looked at UKMO/GEM/GFS first and all had the precip further south so i was sort of expecting ECM to keep it away. Interesting - but experience tells me that it would probably be mostly rain for here. edit - 06z GFS keeps precip south as well.
  13. Water temps have taken a real hit. the ECM is nearer UKMO so that’s good. Keeps the rain at bay that little bit longer and keeps us in the cold game longer
  14. Ground is saturated. Some river catchments are still well above “normal” high level and any quick return to what is shown on GFS and GEM will definitely carry the risk of flooding again. In addition, we seem incapable of getting just a bit of rain now - everything seems to feel the need to last 5 hours and be torrential. we can only hope that a westerly return should it occur (and most I think agree it will) is short lived for the sake of those affected by high water levels.
  15. I hope you didn’t blank? we NEED the UKMO to be on the money here and hope ECM backs it up. GFS and GEM are wet and miserable
  16. 06z GFS = BANK as far as i'm concerned up to t+220. Another 50 miles south on the front and i'll be even happier. If that's anywhere near correct then Mrs Trough can shred her jobs list
  17. yes, rain is always my assumption for the Costa del Bomo in these sort of situations (to be fair, if snow was everything then i wouldn't live here so i can't complain too much :)) . 2018 was perfect for here because it came from a cold easterly and we retained the cold continental air as the front slid along. That said, inland from here still did better in terms of accumulations. I'd like to see the front stay well away to be honest - send it through France. Keep the cold dry theme as long as we possibly can and see what plays out. I've monday and tuesday 22nd and 23rd booked off hoping to do a bit of fishing on the stour or avon. If we can stay dry i think they'll be in decent condition - any rain (unless very light and brief) is going to mean that Mrs Trough will have a "list of jobs" for me instead. So i am a bit biased here.....
  18. These “southward corrections” that “always happen” need to start showing fairly soon. I.e. everything needs to look like a slightly more south ECM from here on.
  19. Is that forecast generated from the UKMO - or some sort of combination? 5 degrees and rain is just wonderful. Just what’s needed
  20. Hmmmmm. ECM the pick for us this morning. The rest look like they have the potential to be wet rather than white IMBY. then yep, can easily see another period of unsettled westerly weather and thoughts turning to flooding again. Let’s hope it’s short lived.
  21. I loved the UKMO this evening. Too much to ask that the ECM sides with it? Hope not. edit - would take a euro high over that crud from the ECM. Flooding issues more likely than anything else.
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