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Everything posted by Frank Trough
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Sort of, although had some of the mean charts that showed robust heights and the talk of highs shuffling around at high latitudes converted into a memorable cold spell then we would have all been in the regionals measuring our snow this week. snow for some but overall a fairly standard cold snap for what is the heart of winter. we then have 7/10 days (minimum) of westerlies with euro heights to take us into the last knockings of proper winter.
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The mighty Icon brings the precipitation further north again with it glancing the coast. It still has a very marginal feel along the coastal strip to it for me though. I wasn’t expecting that - having seen things generally trend south I was assuming that would be that. see what the others make of it - it is just the icon
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I think the precip will end up south mid week if I’m honest. I’ve been hoping for that in the hope that digging the cold south will keep us dry longer. Sort of true but unfortunately it looks like a meek breakdown to rain anyway a couple of days later anyway. Mrs Trough will be sharpening her pencil ahead of putting my jobs list together for 22nd 23rd
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this season has been so much more enjoyable than the last of couple of years in the Prem. Can't believe people still haven't warmed to RM!! Anyway......on to the 12zs later beginning with a bit of ICONNERY again. Seems like there is growing uncertainty within ECM and GFS about the midweek low next week (according to a much more knowledgeable post on the mod thread) so that will be interesting to see how it plays out later. I'm with UKMO from this morning all day long
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Ground is saturated. Some river catchments are still well above “normal” high level and any quick return to what is shown on GFS and GEM will definitely carry the risk of flooding again. In addition, we seem incapable of getting just a bit of rain now - everything seems to feel the need to last 5 hours and be torrential. we can only hope that a westerly return should it occur (and most I think agree it will) is short lived for the sake of those affected by high water levels.
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yes, rain is always my assumption for the Costa del Bomo in these sort of situations (to be fair, if snow was everything then i wouldn't live here so i can't complain too much :)) . 2018 was perfect for here because it came from a cold easterly and we retained the cold continental air as the front slid along. That said, inland from here still did better in terms of accumulations. I'd like to see the front stay well away to be honest - send it through France. Keep the cold dry theme as long as we possibly can and see what plays out. I've monday and tuesday 22nd and 23rd booked off hoping to do a bit of fishing on the stour or avon. If we can stay dry i think they'll be in decent condition - any rain (unless very light and brief) is going to mean that Mrs Trough will have a "list of jobs" for me instead. So i am a bit biased here.....