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Certain kind of fool

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Everything posted by Certain kind of fool

  1. But in an average winter you would still expect the odd colder shot? as a whole, this winter so far is dismal and the output going forward shows a Standard colder spell, but nothing more. The odd day here and there of colder uppers doesn't make a freeze. luckily anything inside t+168 would be a bonus. My understanding is we should still be looking further ahead.
  2. Seriously? Go back and look at the archives or check back on the old threads. Who cares anyway when you have the ECM
  3. If the FV3 was correct we would have already had freeze. Christmas would have been seasonal. i would ignore it for now.
  4. maybe ECM's westward bias? Let's be honest, we would have had a lot more snow over the years if the GFS could just be ignored or it always simply caught up with the ECM.
  5. It won't determine what actually happens though. The real biggies always get to t+72 with cross model support.
  6. Certain kind of fool

    Model output discussion - the beast arrives

    Won't come close to verifying. The beast is dying.
  7. Certain kind of fool

    Model output discussion - the beast arrives

    Spring will be turning up. The raw output for the south on the GFS is pretty average fair. A few ups and a few downs. Bound to be a few colder spells, it's still only march. As long as we don't see a repeat of 2013 I'll be happy.
  8. Well that was fun wasn't it? Not enjoying the ice everywhere this morning. Spring now please.
  9. I'm pretty sure it's straight rain here now. It was wet hitting my coat and hands.
  10. I'm waiting for that heavier precip now in the hope that is snow. I just went out the back and I'm sure what we have here is ice pellets rather rain. For now.
  11. Yep - it's turned the wrong side of snow here too. Can hear it on the window in the wind gusts.
  12. this is falling as freezing rain over the channel islands?
  13. ours did too! the condensation pipe had frozen up (we didn't lag it, being in tropical Bournemouth). I had to use a combination of a hairdryer (leaning out the bedroom window) and hot kettle to the ice in the pipes. Seems to be working now....
  14. This is good news.Please let's keep the faith for later on and keep willing that radar to start looking pretty. I sent my daughter off to nursery this morning amidst much protesting about "snow daddy, you no drive..i stay at home with daddy". Promised her i would get her early and that there would be more snow later........please, please deliver!!
  15. I would gladly settle for 5cm for our area tomorrow.
  16. I think we'll need all our collective positivity for tomorrow in the hope Bomo can join the fun. There is a lot riding on it now......including my decision to "work at home" tomorrow and cancel two meetings
  17. to my relatively untrained and tooth-infectioned eye the 06z GFS looks like a significant upgrade for tomorrow morning for us: light precip, but more of it!
  18. really hoping for some showers for Bomo today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow - I really need some good news and hope we'll get a covering. I've got a raging tooth infection and I really need cheering up. Working at home tomorrow in bomo but this is the view from my office window in Fleet this morning..
  19. chucking it down in Farnborough! just couldn't see this happening an hour ago! bonkers.
  20. yes Karlos, still snowing here down the M3 - some pretty heavy bursts in it. Covering the grass and roofs nicely now.
  21. snowing here at work in Farnborough - got a nice dusting here now. It started as soon as I pulled off the M3 at Junction 4a.
  22. Holy channel low! The ECM is EXACTLY what we need! You couldn't draw it any better! I'm going to drink to it!
  23. As a Bomosapian I am "banking" the 06z. It's about as good as it gets - precipitation at the end of the week gets far enough north and runs along the coast without diluting the uppers etc too much.
  24. Certain kind of fool

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    Living in Bomo I'm going to say "take the risk"! I think it's the best chance we'll get of significant snow - showers don't necessarily cut it for our area in an easterly. Is it 1978 that this remind me a bit of?
  25. If Fawley had snow, surely I must be mis-remembering (?) that spell...although I'm sure I'm not! Maybe the IOW was really unlucky with shower tracks or something.