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Certain kind of fool

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Everything posted by Certain kind of fool

  1. Certain kind of fool

    Model output discussion - the beast arrives

    Won't come close to verifying. The beast is dying.
  2. Certain kind of fool

    Model output discussion - the beast arrives

    Spring will be turning up. The raw output for the south on the GFS is pretty average fair. A few ups and a few downs. Bound to be a few colder spells, it's still only march. As long as we don't see a repeat of 2013 I'll be happy.
  3. Well that was fun wasn't it? Not enjoying the ice everywhere this morning. Spring now please.
  4. I'm pretty sure it's straight rain here now. It was wet hitting my coat and hands.
  5. I'm waiting for that heavier precip now in the hope that is snow. I just went out the back and I'm sure what we have here is ice pellets rather rain. For now.
  6. Yep - it's turned the wrong side of snow here too. Can hear it on the window in the wind gusts.
  7. this is falling as freezing rain over the channel islands?
  8. ours did too! the condensation pipe had frozen up (we didn't lag it, being in tropical Bournemouth). I had to use a combination of a hairdryer (leaning out the bedroom window) and hot kettle to the ice in the pipes. Seems to be working now....
  9. This is good news.Please let's keep the faith for later on and keep willing that radar to start looking pretty. I sent my daughter off to nursery this morning amidst much protesting about "snow daddy, you no drive..i stay at home with daddy". Promised her i would get her early and that there would be more snow later........please, please deliver!!
  10. I would gladly settle for 5cm for our area tomorrow.
  11. I think we'll need all our collective positivity for tomorrow in the hope Bomo can join the fun. There is a lot riding on it now......including my decision to "work at home" tomorrow and cancel two meetings
  12. to my relatively untrained and tooth-infectioned eye the 06z GFS looks like a significant upgrade for tomorrow morning for us: light precip, but more of it!
  13. really hoping for some showers for Bomo today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow - I really need some good news and hope we'll get a covering. I've got a raging tooth infection and I really need cheering up. Working at home tomorrow in bomo but this is the view from my office window in Fleet this morning..
  14. chucking it down in Farnborough! just couldn't see this happening an hour ago! bonkers.
  15. yes Karlos, still snowing here down the M3 - some pretty heavy bursts in it. Covering the grass and roofs nicely now.
  16. snowing here at work in Farnborough - got a nice dusting here now. It started as soon as I pulled off the M3 at Junction 4a.
  17. Holy channel low! The ECM is EXACTLY what we need! You couldn't draw it any better! I'm going to drink to it!
  18. As a Bomosapian I am "banking" the 06z. It's about as good as it gets - precipitation at the end of the week gets far enough north and runs along the coast without diluting the uppers etc too much.
  19. Certain kind of fool

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    Living in Bomo I'm going to say "take the risk"! I think it's the best chance we'll get of significant snow - showers don't necessarily cut it for our area in an easterly. Is it 1978 that this remind me a bit of?
  20. If Fawley had snow, surely I must be mis-remembering (?) that spell...although I'm sure I'm not! Maybe the IOW was really unlucky with shower tracks or something.
  21. much talk on other threads of the latest BBC forecast which apparently says cold but "dry" next week (compared to raging westerlies it will be dry ). anyway, that got me thinking about the 1991 February easterly (which has also featured heavily in discussion lately). I'm sure somebody will correct me or tell me I'm remembering wrong, but I think I remember that spell very clearly. I was living on the IOW and it was certainly cold - the Canoe lake on Ryde seafront froze solid - but snow? not really. A few flurries early on and some "snizzle stuff" as the Atlantic moved in (which melted in the afternoon). I think most of north and east Hants did much better - but how about Dorset/Bournemouth in that spell? similar to my memories on the Island? Or am I talking guff?
  22. there is going to be a spectacular falling out in the MOD thread if this currently modelled cold spell fails to deliver. It doesn't matter how many times you say "a SSW doesn't mean blocking in the right place" etc etc. When people see what's being modelled at present then it can only lead to many tiny toys out of many tiny prams. I've got to say that I'm not enthused by it all yet. It's still more than a week away (first person to spot the killer shortwave at t+120?!) for starters and there's a big difference between the beginning of February and the beginning of march (yes, I know what could happen if everything falls right but...well....).
  23. Certain kind of fool

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    Make the most of it. All i keep hearing is "delayed spring", "bitter march" etc etc. It's been the same EVERY February since 2013. I wonder what the return rate is for a march like 2013? More than five years I would think. That said, I'm on leave the first week of march to get the garden sorted so that will definitely be a wet and very probably cold week.
  24. light snow shower here in Farnborough. When I say light I mean proper flakes blowing about but there was only about 15 of them.