Frank Trough

Can bournemouth manage one snowflake? Well, i don't know. GFS 12z gives chances on sunday and a little graze from the front on tuesday. The GFS is desperate to muck about with "warm" sectors but i guess other factors must be favourable. but the ICON slide the Atlantic under on thursday and gives us a proper chance!

The METO FAX charts don't suggest to me that the initial frontal stuff will get very far west, perhaps hence the warning areas? But as we know, these will change between now and then and other little features could pop up. As for sliders next week i'd rather not be relying on them IMBY - any sort of onshore flow that hasn't got plenty of southeast surface flow about it will be the dreaded "marginal". I would rather it missed altogether to the south and kept the cold going a bit longer (stay in the game as long as you can and see what happens) than gave us rain and a dumping to the midlands etc. mind you, if a slider goes completely right........:)

You can guarantee that chart will be the most accurate of the winter we’ll need something more than showers here. A trough, a channel slider.... During the 2018 BFTE I was properly miserable with a tooth abscess so failed to enjoy any of it. never been better at present so what’s the betting? ??

...and it was then corrected to “extreme south” just to rub it in a little bit more. surely even we have a chance of seeing a flake out of this?

The UKMO looks amazing, that low going under the block along the channel. Some slightly milder uppers creeping in for the far south (i.e. me). Can't see dewpoints or anything but surely that would still be ok? Even for Costa del Bournemouth? Anyway, it won't look exactly like that come tuesday. Definitely getting excited now which i feel is ok. It's late wednesday and we're talking about it getting properly going sunday - not long really

GFS still not exactly where i'd want it to be honest. Low have phased again without the easterly establishing?

looking very quickly at the individual GSF perturbations there are quite a few that look like the ECM/UKMO at t+144. There are plenty that don't though, including the higher res op and control..... FAX for saturday looks alight - you'd certainly take this in most winters!

I find all the March talk tiring. Everyone knows you can get snow and it’s more likely than December. The point is it takes something exceptional to make it worthwhile. 2013 was amazing. And it won’t be repeated any time soon.

The ECM. Actually gets the cold IMBY quicker than the GFS easterly scenario ?

Delays are never good. They are often the canary in the coal mine with modelling cold spells. IMBY (I’m done with being happy for everyone else this winter) a visitation from the -5 850 hasn’t really got any nearer in time since Friday. While not the only factor it’s a quick down and dirty one to use as a reference. sometimes the bigger picture and trends are missed in the clamour for detail.

I don't think that's really the issue - we know how stubborn properly cold air can be once it gets in. For me the issue remains that a nationwide, proper cold spell is still a week away. We've got to get there first - and regardless of how universally good things look now we ALL know from bitter experience that if there is a way to stop it, we generally find it. The first warning sign is often a delay of the coldest uppers arriving and it getting progressively put back as the detail gets resolved. So i'm just going to watch that cold and hope it makes steady progress towards us in time. Down here we need proper continental cold embedded for snow - nothing else really cuts it. So i'm hoping, but extremely cautious.

big differences between 06z and 00z GFS for sunday at midday. I guess this is definitely a live issue and one to watch especially after GEM this morning.

Onshore wind kills us in anything other than an Imbedded continental flow.

The Basingstoke plateau!

That’s a brilliant satellite image - the BCP snow desert sticking out beautifully no wonder I don’t remember it!

I can’t remember that event at all? I guess it must have rained here or missed altogether.

Met office suggesting cold rain here which seems in line with some of modelling (and would not be a massive surprise to anyone in this neck of the woods). I get what mapantz was saying, from my point of view a few flakes mixed with rain doesn’t excite me that much. my children would love just to see some wet flakes falling. Hey ho. down here we really need an easterly with proper cold bedded in and then get lucky with a feature popping up. Nothing else really seems to cut it here.

Tremendous stuff. i LOVE living on the coast and wouldn’t really want to be anywhere else so I can’t really complain. However, my wife and children will which is perhaps more pressing.

ICON 12z looks a bit further south with the first lot.

just about everything judging by the Wales regional thread - rain, hail, sleet, snow, locusts, frogs

maybe but i guess that fax doesn't reflect the latest information? not sure when they get updated. Ultimately it's going to come down to waiting until sunday to see what precip is around and then if we get any seeing what actually falls.

If it can fall as rain anywhere, Bournemouth is your place. That GFS chart posted above has played out before - rain here, snow in Ringwood.

the FAX has the front sort of sliding along the channel, i guess more in line with UKMO.

I want the ICON 06z to be on the money please.