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Everything posted by Frank Trough
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the FV3 was correct we would have already had freeze. Christmas would have been seasonal. i would ignore it for now. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
maybe ECM's westward bias? Let's be honest, we would have had a lot more snow over the years if the GFS could just be ignored or it always simply caught up with the ECM. -
Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It won't determine what actually happens though. The real biggies always get to t+72 with cross model support. -
Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Won't come close to verifying. The beast is dying.- 1,198 replies
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Model output discussion - the beast arrives
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Spring will be turning up. The raw output for the south on the GFS is pretty average fair. A few ups and a few downs. Bound to be a few colder spells, it's still only march. As long as we don't see a repeat of 2013 I'll be happy.- 1,198 replies
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This is good news.Please let's keep the faith for later on and keep willing that radar to start looking pretty. I sent my daughter off to nursery this morning amidst much protesting about "snow daddy, you no drive..i stay at home with daddy". Promised her i would get her early and that there would be more snow later........please, please deliver!!
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really hoping for some showers for Bomo today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow - I really need some good news and hope we'll get a covering. I've got a raging tooth infection and I really need cheering up. Working at home tomorrow in bomo but this is the view from my office window in Fleet this morning..
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Living in Bomo I'm going to say "take the risk"! I think it's the best chance we'll get of significant snow - showers don't necessarily cut it for our area in an easterly. Is it 1978 that this remind me a bit of? -
much talk on other threads of the latest BBC forecast which apparently says cold but "dry" next week (compared to raging westerlies it will be dry ). anyway, that got me thinking about the 1991 February easterly (which has also featured heavily in discussion lately). I'm sure somebody will correct me or tell me I'm remembering wrong, but I think I remember that spell very clearly. I was living on the IOW and it was certainly cold - the Canoe lake on Ryde seafront froze solid - but snow? not really. A few flurries early on and some "snizzle stuff" as the Atlantic moved in (which melted in the afternoon). I think most of north and east Hants did much better - but how about Dorset/Bournemouth in that spell? similar to my memories on the Island? Or am I talking guff?
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
Frank Trough replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Spring nirvana by then