Frank Trough

except Bournemouth of course

I’ve just been for a run. We must have had a very localised, light fall of snow here in east Bournemouth (Iford). It’s definitely not just frost. Even a mile up the river valley there’s nothing except a bit of frost.

Plenty of places that have been deluged and flooded will be very grateful for a prolonged dry spell. A uk high would do the job.

snowing quite hard in Fleet (NE Hants) but not settling. I wasn't expecting to see any so still a bonus.

Can't see it either looking at the radar. Seems like it's almost through here. Chucking it down now though.

While I'm pleased to see falling snow I just can't see it settling much here if at all. It's not heavy enough and the front seems to be rattling through. Presumably the pivot is what we're after and where the settling might kick in?

Looks like it's turning to snow here now (east Bournemouth)

raining here now.

It would be good! Fully braced for the rain which is imminent now but lets hope that swings in our favour later this evening.

I would think that at least St Catherines Down, Bonniface and the central ridge all have a decent chance?

I think I am either just in or right on the line. Need to temper expectations - i will still be very pleasantly surprised. Also need to do some work....

hmmmm....I would LOVE you to be right I think you're in a cracking spot - i think the Basingstoke Plateau will cop it this evening.

The new forest will too i should think - the bit up Poulner Hill is always good. in these situations i just end up waiting and hoping for positive news from coastal locations further west...

i don't like that Poole bay grey area! it's been consistent with that too....

i think we're going to be just the wrong side of marginal here. I'm about 1.5 miles inland and i suspect i won't have to go far to find the snow line. maybe better prospects for friday here?

The HIRLAM was brilliant for last year's events (unfortunately). I think central southern coastal dwellers will have to go inland a bit to see anything. The high bit of the New Forest east of Ringwood is often ok when it's just rain IMBY. Tis almost always the case for us directly on the coast - it takes a really memorable set up for us not to have to worry.

or 2014 and 2015. I worded that very badly - I meant predictions of cold springs are routine!

One thing that is assured is that the second week of march will feature biting easterly winds and leaden skies (but no snow - maybe just a few grains). I know this because I am on holiday that week and the children will be desperate to do outdoor stuff.... Everything I've seen or read seems to indicate that a cold spring is a given. They seem to be routine now (certainly they are predicted every year since 2013). Blocking statistically more likely in spring anyway, couple that with sod's law that it won't deliver in winter and it's not hard to see it panning out that way again.

In march, probably.

For last March's easterly one of the arpege or HIRLAM was miles out and the other spot on (for down here). I can't remember which way round it was...

Indeed, maybe another 24 hours after that for the mid term. We aren't there yet - it will be cold but whether we'll see a proper cold spell is not yet clear.

Indeed. But it does demonstrate that the ICON solution has legs (and not forgetting the UKMO was close).

Are there going to be any ICON options in there? What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....

But in an average winter you would still expect the odd colder shot? as a whole, this winter so far is dismal and the output going forward shows a Standard colder spell, but nothing more. The odd day here and there of colder uppers doesn't make a freeze. luckily anything inside t+168 would be a bonus. My understanding is we should still be looking further ahead.

Seriously? Go back and look at the archives or check back on the old threads. Who cares anyway when you have the ECM