Frank Trough

How did the UKV do with predicting the precipitation yesterday?

it's still fairly dire for the south in that's it's basically raining from sunday until tuesday.

The UKMO looks good for that (and even further east along the south coast) and ECM to an extent. GFS which was backing it has it all further south.now.

Wet snow now in Christchurch. Better than nothing! IMG_0174.MOV

Bizarre. Can’t believe we’ve only managed rain! But happy for you of course

Are you at elevation? Has it been all snow?

Yep, raining steadily here. Pretty grim out.

More like rain here now

We have tiny snow grains falling here. You have to concentrate to see it. My children are not impressed.

Nothing is falling? Must be evaporating higher up? (Not technical description ) edit - light snow falling here now

We had a little dusting here in Bournemouth (Iford) overnight. Definitely isn’t just frost. A pleasant surprise. Assume that approaching precip isn’t snow to the west of the conurbation?

Trouble is it’s west of Iceland.

A bit anecdotal, but it also did brilliantly (much better than all the other models) with a storm in September a few years back. I remember because I was running a fishing event that weekend so paid particular attention. The ICON got the wind direction (NNW) and precipitation timings nailed before the others. (The day was a write off fishing wise ). with no real evidence to back it up apart from that METO update, I have a gut feeling that this won’t be the only significant cold spell before the end of March. It just feels primed ?

I’m going off the UKV mind you, I went off dry roasted peanuts for a bit but I am very much back on them now. Maybe the UKV will find something in the next couple of days. Not hopeful though.

i think it was this you're thinking of? I was in Locks Heath then. Brilliant event that was - had to abandon my car in Bursledon tesco and walk the rest of the way home from work.

yes, that's what that "A" shape is. Runways so you can take off/land in all directions. Sometimes they're old wartime airfields rather than current ones.

It’s all relative, though. There are obviously examples when we did ok - perhaps better - compared to everywhere else. But they’re memorable because they don’t happen very often. I’m not complaining, it’s just geography. Just have to accept it.

The METO absolutely love forecasting “rain on coasts”. They’re usually right i bet it drizzled in east Bournemouth in the last mini ice age. I’m so desperate now that I’m just giving myself a pep talk about “at least it will be dry”. River levels drop and I might finally get fishing next week

“Chance of snow showers along southern coasts on Tuesday” really?

Met office has me down for either light cloud or thicker cloud from now until Friday ....when it then offers up an hour or two of light rain.

You’ll be sure to let us know when there’s some good news, won’t you?

Was that overnight November 30th/December 1st 2010? A little area of instability and it delivered a nice covering ( I was in locks Heath then). It was modelled in advance though.

Tuesday close to very interesting on the GFS 12z:

I think given what we're seeing not to mention the additional information the METO have, milder air getting in down here looks the form horse now. A bit disappointed to be honest so really hoping to see snow (even just some falling flakes) before the end of the week. *edit* you can see from the ICON 12z (i know, i know) how much the LP is struggling. It makes it but not by much and a fairly quick return to cold looks a good bet on the t+180 chart:

while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!!