LomondSnowstorm

Euro4 broadly the same as before, maybe less for the "Slamannan bullseye" and more for Fife but still quite impressive totals flagged. No sign of graupel here in the heavier stuff

Big flakes, everything turning white properly again That radar is quite something...

It's almost always under the big blob of snow from my experience Speaking of big blobs of snow, the radar is shaping up very nicely here and the snow's just come back on properly...

I wonder if it's to do with the position of the convergence line - I think it's still a little bit north of Edinburgh so perhaps the convection is getting 'sucked' into that for now. I did notice the shower at Cumbernauld was also notably light, although there's some red stuff on the radar in the Forth that I think might just track down the M8... It does seem that the next shower and the blobs behind are perking up, so fingers crossed!

Just been out for a wander in Cumbernauld (I waved to Aggy ), definitely more snow lying there as expected but also quite nice to see blue skies on the way back (think the next lot of snow is moving in so the clear skies won't last).

I'd certainly think so, just as Aberdeen has had fairly substantial showers through today Perth is likely to see plenty more snow too, and some of the heavier stuff right through tomorrow is still modelled to hit around the Tay as well as the Forth.

We're starting to see the southward shift on the convergence zone on the radar. Probably expect it to end up over the Forth (although with the northern end still North of the Tay just about) by 5pm based on the models and the radar, although the heaviest and most persistent stuff will arrive tomorrow morning.

Tell me about it - I'm currently on the "Edinburgh track" (or maybe a tad to the west of it) and it's been a painful couple of hours aside from the odd shower The Forth is looking as decent for convection as it has all day though so I'm hopeful, maybe a slight change in the wind direction would help too (although ultimately once the convergence zone heads that'll probably do the trick).

Hard to tell, we haven't had the UKV publicly available for previous big easterlies, but I don't remember the Euro4 overestimating totals particularly in non-marginal setups.

Fascinating to see such differences between the two, not in distribution (although the euro4 does go a bit further south west with it) but in totals. I did think the Euro4 was a 'snowier' model but moreso because it seems to have a bit of a cold bias, and I assumed the precipitation modelling was pretty similar (although it could be that the UKV models a little melt during daytime for whatever reason).

I do think you guys should do pretty well, theres no particular reason the showers would avoid East Lothian, certainly compared to the issues Edinburgh faces where we need a bit more of a northerly tilt, and you'll still be getting heavy stuff well into Wednesday as well even if it's not quite as good today for whatever reasons

Me too - Freuchie makes it in (not quite as far as @Hawesy sadly!) but we must be a mile at most from it at this end of Coatbridge because Gartcosh is covered by it Can't argue too much about the placement (not that far from what I sent last night if I remember correctly albeit a little later?), I'd think Edinburgh on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could end up with one, we could see this one extended a little north/south depending on changes and still time for a red warning within the area somewhere.

(It's the same from 9am-then) Seems, unlikely to be rain

I think Tuesday night/Wednesday morning has some good potential for you guys, most models have the flow heading towards a proper northeasterly for a bit and with it not really getting so far inland, Edinburgh would be in a decent spot. I'd imagine you'll get a fair bit before then though too!

I think this will just come and go with individual 'blobs' really, the shower over us held up very well and us finally giving a covering here so I'd imagine things will pep up behind that.

The snow found some very creative ways of missing here overnight (actually both Freuchie and Coatbridge!), including splitting a shower north/south - looks like a pretty intense one heading down the M8 now though... The models have generally moved things a bit north as far as the main convergence lines go, generally sinking but holding a little more than yesterday evening, but I'm interested to see quite how far that holds because the flow is well primed for a Forth-Clyde streamer too and there's no lack of convection either. I suspect we could end up with a couple of convergence lines, one more Tay based and one more Forth based, developing on that basis

No I think you're absolutely bang on about the polar low (or at least something like that) - those -40C 500hPa temperatures we're chasing for Wednesday give exactly the setup for such a thing and the UKV for one has it developing then for Shetland. Unfortunately for the rest of us it just hangs about in the North Sea, but could easily take a bit of a detour and clobber somewhere on mainland Scotland too...

Mahomes and maybe Rodgers (well also Brady) are the only folk I'd bother to keep watching this game for, but it's still possible so I'll crack open another drink (plus I do think there's another shower incoming, finally).

Good stuff, I may crack open the single malt I've got here after this one too. The lamp post check was sadly as worthwhile as the KC offensive line tonight

Somewhat related, but what beers are we on tonight? I got a wee shipment of Augustiners (my beer of choice out in Innsbruck, I really miss it sometimes), but on Bitter and Twisted at the moment (one of the favourites from my local, which ironically I'm just as sentimental about at this point ).

Radar still looking good, although showers dying a bit the further south/west they get so far, KC a bit less so... The Scotland thread is also a bit less, ehm, strictly policed, as far as allowing things that are fine but maybe off topic, compared to the old MT, so I think the odd NFl post at 1am isn't going to end up too badly

I suppose the 49ers last year were on the same level defensively, and gave them similar struggles, but always hard to beat Brady in the playoffs.

Back to weather, and I'm really quite impressed by how much the convection is pepping up east of the Forth - not as intense as the convergence line to the north but starting to stretch out pretty far:

Good stop by KC but the Buc's defence is terrifying, KC just don't look like the same team at the moment. If they can keep it within 10 they can probably come back but hard to beat a pass rush like that against backups.

I'm also staying up for the Super Bowl (basically a neutral after my adoptive team had their customary exit in the NFC championship) although I suspect I wouldn't have slept that well anyway with the radar starting to look more interesting for here. I can report lying snow (about a light covering) in Freuchie. The wind is starting to shift to quite a nice direction for more of the Forth convection to head down the M8, and the southern band is stronger than I've seen it all day. Probably worth a lamp post check at half time