[Winter Forecast 2015/16]

Well Done LS - good luck as winter progresses - good amount of work in there! Nice one.

Cheers Tony - good luck with your one as well.

[Lomond Snowstorm's Winter Forecast 2012/13]

Second update: failure of Greenland heights to establish in December is probably the main error here, otherwise it looks at this stage to be pretty close: much colder in Scotland than elsewhere, cold starting early but easing off in mid month and (hopefully) a colder blast to finish the year again.

[Lomond Snowstorm's Winter Forecast 2012/13]

Recap: details off by quite a bit but the general theme of below average though unsettled first fortnight looks about right, along with probably milder spell around mid month up to just before Christmas. Certainly not a bust yet and the December anomalies might not be too far off if we can get a northerly based cold spell around Christmas.

[Lomond Snowstorm's Winter Forecast 2012/13]

Cheers, I know it does look rather optimistic to keep forecasting cold winters but once again there's a lot of evidence pointing in that direction. Always the possibility of another 'close but no cigar' winter too though, it's almost impossible to tell whether or not that's likely at this stage. It looks better than last winter did at this time, the building blocks are already in place whereas last year a lot was against us at the very start.

[Long Range Forecast July 2011 To March 2012]

The ENSO state does look fairly helpful though whether that will actually be a major driver in our winter (it didn't appear to be in 09/10 and the strong La Nina norm only seemed to kick in after that incredible December last year) remains to be seen. Perhaps it is too much to expect a third consecutive winter where there is at least one historically cold month but given the generally suppressed solar activity, the continued impact of volcanic activity and the apparent trend since 2007 away from a strong, northerly tracking jetstream I think it would be hard to rule anything out at this stage.

[Christmas Forecast 2010]

In fact as my general overview points out at the time the ECM was blasting +3 uppers up the country by midday Christmas.

[Christmas Forecast 2010]

I was a bit conservative with my estimates and there was a possibility of rain arriving by late evening on Christmas, so in hindsight Wales should've got at least 3 1/2 santas. Perhaps I should narrow it down to city centres also, but in all fairness it was a fun Christmassy post and I was forced to limit the number of santas each rating could have!

[A Rare Dreich, Mild Day In This Extraordinary Winter]

I think we can rule out the Hale winter hypothesis as an explanation for the last winter after either the most or second coldest December since the Scottish MO temperature series began.

[Christmas Forecast 2010]

I was forced to use the santas sparingly, hence the (+1/2s)

["man Flu", Colds, Coming Into Work]

I read somewhere that women take more days off work ill on average than men, but regardless, your post is a good one. It's another example of everything in moderation, in this instance caution about health.

[Mr Data On The Era Of Modernity In Light Of The Winter Of 2009/10]

[quote name='Ian Brown' date='03 March 2010 - 22:15 ']Certainly I accept what has happened, high latitude blocking in the winter months that I thought no longer possible has occurred. There is not going to be a book.[/quote]
It takes a real scientist to admit that he was wrong, and to be fair to you the post-87 winters have been very lacking in northerly blocking up until now.[img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/good.gif[/img]

[Mr Data On The Era Of Modernity In Light Of The Winter Of 2009/10]

This pretty much sums up my thoughts on the era of modernity.

[Weather Anorak]

thanks SS. I am seriously considering meteorology, though I do have a fair interest for something related to but not necessarily politics, but I think I'll keep my options fairly well open for as long as I can until I fully decide[img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif[/img]

[Happy Birthday .. To A Few Scots]

Those guys are all legends! Amazingly three of them live within about three miles of each other!
Hopefully from Big Innes' birthday to SL2's (maybe even until Mondy's!) there will be no let up in snowfall.
And I really hope CMD enjoys his birthday pancake[img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/laugh.gif[/img]
LS

[The 8Th February - The Beginning Of Another Major Cold Spell?]

I think, for once, the real risk is actually when I'm back at school!![img]http://forumcache.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/drinks.gif[/img]

[The 8Th February - The Beginning Of Another Major Cold Spell?]

Thanks!

[A Rare Dreich, Mild Day In This Extraordinary Winter]

thanks for the positive comments. Any updates on this will be at NMM timeframe I feel as the slightly longer term models are discussed enough in most other threads already! That ECM 240 needs to be saved though - some chart!