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weatherjunkie

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  1. From what I have gathered the increased easterly winds in the northern hemisphere at 200mb in the polar latitudes have caused the sudden stratospheric warming, or as you like to call it the Major-Mid Winter Warming; to my knowledge it hasn't been this strong during this time of year since 1978. This would set up high latitude blocking over the Northern Atlantic and hopefully some more winter cold outbreaks. By the way, awesome discussion. I still learning how to put the pieces of the puzzle together like the momentum fluxes and frictional torques. I hope that these discussions continue.
  2. Was looking optimistic over the last few days but less so today. Can't complain though since the E US has been quite cold and snowy. We wouldn't need a full SSW to keep it that way the rest of the winter. The PV has been entrenched into Canada for a while and another lower stratosphere split at some point in the next two weeks would most likely keep things cold. I like the wavebreaking we're seeing in the N. Atlantic. GFS showing warming events coming from that region and hopefully it'll be enough to knock the PV down some more. I've already convinced myself not to pay attention to the 6z fo
  3. To expand slightly about one of the points recretos makes is the +MT torque event projected by day 10. Even if this doesn't work out too well this go-round, there are indications (outside of dynamical model forecasts) that the MJO will fire into phases 6-7-8 by the third week of January and these phases increase the likelihood of a +EAMT event. So we could be seeing several round of warming coming from there this month.
  4. Maps are absolutely amazing. Keep up the good work! Looks like the long range is promising. All eyes on the downwelling possibilities but also to the strength of the warming. It may take another round of warming in late January-February to completely topple this strong PV. Going to be looking at the last week of January for another +MT event out of Asia to knock this off for a while. We'll see how it goes.
  5. I'm glad to hear that you haven't abandoned ship with it. I'm sure quite a few of us appreciate the effort that you put into this kind of work and it would be of amazing value to the weather community. I look forward to seeing what you come up with.
  6. The QBO is solidly west between say 20mb and 70mb. Judging by its pace over the past several months, I'd say any flip to the east based side will occur well after winter. However, there should be weakening of the westerlies starting at the top of the stratosphere and working there way down, so perhaps this affects the PV later on down the road for late winter. I'm on board with those that think long term the PV remains pretty strong. However, the latest forecasts charts hold promise for the more immediate time period regarding some blocking with a brief PV split/elongation. We'll see how it go
  7. This is some great, great stuff. Can't wait to see what comes of this. On a side note, how has your MJO reanalysis/composite project gone? That one looked quite interesting as well.
  8. This is incredible and I'm sure many will thank you for taking the time to do this. Keep us updated
  9. The first chart simply measures the intensity of wave amplitude at various levels of the atmosphere and at certain longitudes. Basically what we see today from the ECM between hour 0 and hour 240 of its forecast period is much stronger wave 1 activity at the top of the stratosphere centered around 70N. The biggest question we have right now is not if we see a SSW but when and how do the subsequent displacement and fragmentation lead to colder/stormier pattern. It looks to be case of various levels of the stratosphere doing different things as the GFS/ECM show variations in what happens to the
  10. I would like to take a stab at some of these questions if you don't mind. I'm also from the Philly metro area...small world I guess . 1. The affects of the warming are highly dependent on what happens to the polar vortex as a result of the warming. Most of the charts we see on the GFS show a split vortex by the end of the long range. This split will have to be monitored since one piece may setup over Canada/Greenland and will create quite a problem if we wish to see a -NAO. We would prefer to see the split where one piece heads to Siberia and the other to Europe which would allow HP over Gre
  11. What a pleasure it is to find such a thread every winter. Monitoring this kind of stuff if incredibly quite interesting and those who have posted in here have done a marvelous job in both explaining model outputs and potential impacts on sensible weather. To add some food for thought, it has been proposed that in order to help propagate the warming down from the top of the stratosphere to the troposphere, EP flux vectors must point to the poles in the troposphere. EP (Eliasssan-Palmer) flux is used to help describe eddy forcing of zonal wind anomalies. When EP vectors are pointed to the poles,
  12. From what I have gathered the increased easterly winds in the northern hemisphere at 200mb in the polar latitudes have caused the sudden stratospheric warming, or as you like to call it the Major-Mid Winter Warming; to my knowledge it hasn't been this strong during this time of year since 1978. This would set up high latitude blocking over the Northern Atlantic and hopefully some more winter cold outbreaks. By the way, awesome discussion. I still learning how to put the pieces of the puzzle together like the momentum fluxes and frictional torques. I hope that these discussions continue.
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