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Fozfoster

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    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I agree its not as good as the ECM/GFS but unless the positive PNA is going to suddenly implode then a return to milder weather is very unlikely.

    If you look at the UKMO at T168hrs of what we can see, you can tell by the curvature in the isobars on the eastern flank of the high that pressure is still low to the east,  pressure is still likely to be okay to the ne, the high is likely to shift nw towards that lobe coming out of Newfoundland, the low to the nw of the UK is going to be drawn to lower pressure over central Europe.

    ukm2_2017121000_168_lant_troplant_prp_fcst_gentracker.thumb.png.ebdae8e1ecf41e820534cdba0cc032c7.png

     

    Of course we'd prefer the UKMO to be wrong with the pattern edged further west and jet track se further west however even with that we might see the troughing over Europe eventually sink south.

    I expect the UKMO is too flat and even if we see a halfway house between the outputs that still keeps the UK in the game.

     

    Hey Nick thats another post without mentioning short waves.......:rofl: 

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