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Paul T

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  1. Ok. So the high res NAE has this for Thursday afternoon. A couple of other things to note; the 850's are slightly lower on the NAE also and Thurs max temps across SW are a crazy minus 2!
  2. Looking forward to getting into the NAE precip charts. That is the only model I care about when it comes to failry good ppn estimates.... The others are very very vague ideas of what could happen. Obvs thats within +48hrs only.
  3. Its an absolute gamechanger. A North Easterly on Monday AM with temps across the SW of below freezing. The 12Z was 6oC milder. Wow.
  4. GFS appears to have downgraded that 967mb low from yesterdays models!! Oh Silly GFS and your overly progressive approach to low pressure to our South West...
  5. GAMECHANGER...GFS is backing down. What a difference in temps and snow for Saturday
  6. Its less the track of the "original" low as most models have that shooting west of Ireland, its more the development and progression of the shortwave(s) as it nears the UK. Look at 144hrs gfs (18z v 00z). They paint a fairly different picture all driven by the treatment of the shortwave across the UK. The GEM 18z v 00z has changed towards a potentially more snowy and cooler friday/saturday. The MO v ECM differences (attached) at 120hrs are down to the treatment of the shortwaves...MO going for channel low development and a further one over the Slovakia area whilst ECM is not to fussed and therefore brings a milder southerly. Given that shortwave development can change pretty drastically right up to 24 to 48hrs we are someway off consistancy across the models. Although it must be said that even the fairly "mild" GFS 00z solution has significant snow on Friday for many (incl. the south) and temps on sat are hovering around zero from the Midlands North...
  7. I like to spend a little bit of time comparing the fax charts as the update as they are good to spot trends or shifts - they also have the input from the MO forecasters. With regard to the last 2 updates of the fax charts for next wednesday (12z) it shows the low as it approaches spain increasingly flattening on the NE side. Further forward, the GFS has the position of this low stalling south of Ireland (Friday AM) and then moving east across the UK on Saturday. In the next few updates/runs, and after reviewing the ensemble quite a bit, I would still suggest that it could very much stall between Cornwall and NW France and move up the channel. Well, the 12z is out now so lets see what the trend is...
  8. My take on the next 4 or 5 days for the south west... MONDAY Very cold start and temps then hovering around zero all day. Very isolated snow showers. TUESDAY Bloody cold again. Light to moderate snow in Bristol from 6am for a few hours. This will be moving into Devon a few hours later. Showers then possible for anywhere into the evening. So a dusting likely. WEDNESDAY Temps not getting above zero. A more organised band of snow is forecast to skirt the south coast of Devon and Cornwall from midnight and could last into the afternoon. Personally I think this could produce some decent accumulations if indeed it does skirt along the coast and nudge inland..its 50/50... Bristol could have an occasional snow shower not much more. THURSDAY and FRIDAY So, heres the biggy. Its very different depending on if you're in Jannerland or not... Plymouth will have heavy snow showers and as Thursday evening progresses it will turn to full on frontal snow. It will turn to rain at some point (i mean, it is Plymouth afterall)...I think it will change first thing friday morning after you've had a few inches from the full on frontal snow. Bit rude. For my neck of the woods in Portishead its a similar theme but its not set to turn to rain until midday Friday, if all at. Current accumulations set to be around 8 to 10 inches. If that happens I will be making a 10 foot snowman with my son, sticking a scottish hat on it and rugby tackling it as hard as humanly possible to help me get over yesterdays game.
  9. Yes, the Op is higher res; my point above was that when comparing all of the ensemble members with the control (also in low res) the theme across the board was a shift S and E. This therefore highlights the potential that, with a tweaking of the input, it suggests a trend consistantly towards a more southerly and easterly track. Thats pretty much all they are useful for..
  10. With regard to the GFS evolution of "that" low next friday - the stamps confirm that every single run has the low placed further south and east than the control map, barring P14...therefore the progressive nature and dilution of the 850's and placement out to the west of the low is perhaps overplayed a little on the contol. In my opinion, placement in the channel and then an intense weakening is a fairly likely outcome, backed by many ensemble members.
  11. Snow Sunday evening is likely for Somerset and Dorset, overnight tonight will be rain
  12. HGT 500-1000 looks great for Friday and the 850's -9 widely across the SW. If the showers aren't snow with that set up you might aswell give up. Positioning of the low will change a fair bit for Sunday. What I would like to see is the 850's a little cooler, but either way the sea is pretty warm still so inland and altitude will be particularly important.
  13. Pretty tastey charts - Brian isn't a massive storm but its a spicey one that might delivery a fair punch... I think the spring tide tomorrow PM in the Bristol channel could bring a bit of water higher than usual - no real shakes, but certainly of interest.
  14. Question: Where will the centre of the depression (or "eye") be when it makes landfall on Ireland? Well, comparing latest radar tracking with the high res models (12z) it suggests it could be between Bantry (SW tip of Ireland) and Cork. This would be an Easterly shift of around 50 miles as most models suggest the very tip of SW Ireland being where the "eye" will be positoned. It will be a proper nowcast event tonight!!
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