Pembroke Dangler

This could be a great match for the January 1982 snow storm that his us let’s hope it’s similar to that

more than a whiff of this old system bumping into cold air, the rest as they say is history. Please be right ECM just a little further south later on and jackpot we all stay cold and the snow starved south get hammered.

Winds veering slightly now more east south east and with the coldest pool of air just coming towards us and the Bristol Channel being about 2 degrees warmer than the North Sea we *could* see some convection of our own move inland in south wales

Looks like a more organised band developing there let’s hope it remains intense when it gets here

Nice little upgrade it’s becoming a quickly evolving situation where the Bristol Channel will pep up the showers this evening and move inland by the looks of it, nothing significant but should be nice to see nevertheless

We need a slight south east element to the wind for here Keith to bring the showers off the Bristol Channel but could happen I’ve seen it before.

Snow would be widespread and disruptive with this set up low spinning up fronts in to the dense cold air wow let’s have it.

Beautiful chart and should lock in with the Omega style block forming between Greenland and Iceland, that Low over the Azores could move east and prevent the heights escaping over us and bring a special snow event to southern u.k.

ukmo is a thing of beauty and would go on to produce a pretty potent northerly later on. As for longevity I have a feeling that the high would collapse down towards us but if this coincides with the Jet moving back north we could have residual heights left far enough north to force the renewed push of Atlantic energy under and give us a few battleground snow scenarios before the renewed signal of background drivers helping northern blocking re-establish towards months end and beyond. Ecm is a concern but you’d still feel there would be enough residual heights left over the nw to force systems under.

Exactly my thoughts, if we can get the low in the Azores and cold trough dropping down from the north to meet somewhere would get a decent snow event and I’m all about the risk reward, the uppers don’t need to be -10 for that -2 or below would suffice in this set up with frontal Snow, then watch the temps drop afterwards.

Crucially I feel but not hanging my hat on it the mean stays below -5 and the colder run group has 5 members below -10 I think yesterday we had 2 breaching -10 small wins and all to play for.

Seems to rapidly intensify as it drops down from Greenland hopefully it’s forced to drop through us as behind it there is a ton of cold lurking far out in FI now though so will probably be gone by the next run anyway seems a bit rogue to me.

I think the 850’s on the day 10 ecm will be colder nearer the time I’ve never been a fan of the later 850 output from the model tbh but if the Synoptics run like this in 10 days they would be colder.

Don’t worry I’ll be awake

Yep they were once in 100 year events for sure but who knows could we be due another one? Another warming event has come up on a few runs today towards months end which would likely disrupt the pv some more and shove February into the freezer too.

Love thy Neighbour and look out for the elderly this could be historic if it plays out the way it is on the means and some of the operational runs today proper pipe bursters.

This could rival 62/63 and 81/82 for longevity of cold

Think it could be the the perfect snow storm as the cold arrives from the north and the low meet somewhere would get buried historically the south west.

I remember the lead upto it on here and it counted down perfectly for about 2 weeks out, all the model power we have now should be better at handling this spell better than back then you’d think but there were the doubters back then too will it be to west based etc etc but much like this coming spell all the ensembles are pointing towards a Greenland block and that’s where we are heading imho

It will only get colder from here conveyor belt of cold circulating out of scandi over us perfection and reinforced by the lows going under the block into Iberia please let this be right

Would love to see the uppers on that to see what we could expect from that approaching low.

Day 10 ecm mean has an east north east flow as the high looks to just get north of the uk enough, that’s not bad for a mean chart that far out.

Yes if we can box that high in over Iceland should see some disrupting Lows going under sliding

Yes exactly why we should just stick with the Means and anomalies that far ahead as you would go crazy if you followed every run and treat as gospel. Zonal winds are falling and MJO is projected into favourable territory so stick with these I would and don’t look past 7 days ahead. The NWP have a lot to work out and as @nick sussex mentioned there will be wedges and all sorts popping up all over the polar regions. The models just don’t know where yet.

The later output from the GFS 12Z would go on to topple the high over us and would flatten out but that’s one variation on the theme and I bet the later part would be in warm outlier territory when the GEFS is out later. You can bet there will be a few which link the Greenland ridge to the one over the pole and the cold continuing until the end ideally!