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Pembroke Dangler

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Everything posted by Pembroke Dangler

  1. Pembroke Dangler
    Snowing heavily big 50p flakes here settling on cars and grass
  2. Pembroke Dangler
    Bank one last horah for a walloping even if the snow melts by midday I’d take it after this winter that promised so much and delivered so little
  3. Pembroke Dangler
    Lovely 6Z run from day 9 onwards but we are relying on a shortwave being ejected east from the parent low in the Atlantic to trigger the height rise to our west at 210 which is plausible but lots that could go wrong with this evolution much like this weeks low which headed north and splits.
  4. Pembroke Dangler
    Wow well since this morning there have been about 10 pages of reading and I was thinking there must be a beast coming or a long fetch cross polar northerly but no it’s another garden path job and we are looking for some wedges here and there to salvage a cold weekend. Stroll on spring I’m missing my Golf and cycling and the ecm 216 looks like some warm air wafting up from Spain let’s have it if we can’t have snow and ice.
  5. Pembroke Dangler
    I’ll believe it when I see it but this has Swansea and some of the south in with a shout latest met office take on things
  6. Pembroke Dangler
    TEITS My eyebrow was raised this morning with the ecm showing a big correction south but my other eyebrow is raised looking at the aprege, could be a south of the M4 affair come tomorrow’s 00z and then Channel Islands by the 00z Tuesday.
  7. Pembroke Dangler
    Ironic that the only dry slot is right over Swansea and Gower couldn’t make it up that good old snow force field (Beacons) in full force lol
  8. Pembroke Dangler
    E17boy ideally we want the system to remain shallow until it reaches the North Sea and then deepen to wrap the cold around on its western flank keeping the south in the cold air with a rain to Snow event as there’s no cold air in place before the system arrives. Like the GFS 6z shows around the 160 hours timeframe.
  9. Pembroke Dangler
    bluearmy Thanks for that feels like the middle of January system a bit, could miss to the south altogether and head into France at this rate
  10. Pembroke Dangler
    bluearmy Is that the ecm 6z control further south?
  11. Pembroke Dangler
    It then transitions to a decent northerly but as you say JFF would be great if that’s how it happens.
  12. Pembroke Dangler
    Just a test for future reference thanks seems fine to me
  13. Pembroke Dangler
    been keeping an eye on this trough moving south east out of NI I wonder if it can keep intensity for tonight could head our way fingers crossed
  14. Pembroke Dangler
    I spy with my little eye a scandi high
  15. Pembroke Dangler
    I think this is the mean so will be some runs which will bring the front further north and some further south and hopefully we will be stuck in the middle with snow
  16. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes I think we might see a flurry or two tomorrow night, just need the temps to drop before it arrives as they could be sleet rather than snow if they come to early Monday into Tuesday though could be good
  17. Pembroke Dangler
    Gfs has this nailed
  18. Pembroke Dangler
    Yes on the previous frame it was just an open wave over the Irish Sea but has developed rapidly by the next bit to far ahead to worry about specific details by Thursday next week the main thing is the initial push of cold air is further south by Monday on this run
  19. Pembroke Dangler
    That’s quite the shift south in 24 hours around 100 miles or so which makes me think the sweet spot will be the Channel Islands as I suspected a few days back. The south east May catch the northern extent of the front as it sweeps through the channel but all will stay cold with pop ups likely and harsh penetrating frosts under clear skys and ice days for midlands north. Some sheltered parts of mid and north wales could hit double digit minimums at night brrr
  20. Pembroke Dangler
    Love the fax charts as they always show more isobars and that’s got direct northerly all over it and troughs embedded heading down in the flow
  21. Pembroke Dangler
    It will depend on the shape of approaching systems from the west but yes more chance of us all staying the colder side of the Jet and more wintery potential to anything falling from the sky. Specifics left to nearer the time but the pattern looks primed for the Jet to stay south for a while.
  22. Pembroke Dangler
    Very slidery looking that systems angled nw se and no Iberian heights either
  23. Pembroke Dangler
    Not sure the orientation of the low is right here with the block to the nw it would angle it more nw/se and disrupt into the channel leaving us all cold but it’s way out to be worrying about specifics. Nice run though and plenty of snow opportunities you’d say in the earlier periods upto 168.
  24. Pembroke Dangler
    Wowzers that’s outstanding would be perfect all along the M4
  25. Pembroke Dangler
    I think it will correct further south in time they usually do and the Channel Islands get buried but we stay cold with snow shower chances. But you never know 42 years is a long time between big snow events so we are due one. Not including 2018 as us in Swansea we’re wondering what all the fuss was about.
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