Pembroke Dangler
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Pembroke Dangler replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Lovely 6Z run from day 9 onwards but we are relying on a shortwave being ejected east from the parent low in the Atlantic to trigger the height rise to our west at 210 which is plausible but lots that could go wrong with this evolution much like this weeks low which headed north and splits. -
Wow well since this morning there have been about 10 pages of reading and I was thinking there must be a beast coming or a long fetch cross polar northerly but no it’s another garden path job and we are looking for some wedges here and there to salvage a cold weekend. Stroll on spring I’m missing my Golf and cycling and the ecm 216 looks like some warm air wafting up from Spain let’s have it if we can’t have snow and ice.
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Pembroke Dangler replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
TEITS My eyebrow was raised this morning with the ecm showing a big correction south but my other eyebrow is raised looking at the aprege, could be a south of the M4 affair come tomorrow’s 00z and then Channel Islands by the 00z Tuesday. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Pembroke Dangler replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
E17boy ideally we want the system to remain shallow until it reaches the North Sea and then deepen to wrap the cold around on its western flank keeping the south in the cold air with a rain to Snow event as there’s no cold air in place before the system arrives. Like the GFS 6z shows around the 160 hours timeframe. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Pembroke Dangler replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy Thanks for that feels like the middle of January system a bit, could miss to the south altogether and head into France at this rate -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Pembroke Dangler replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
bluearmy Is that the ecm 6z control further south? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Pembroke Dangler replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It then transitions to a decent northerly but as you say JFF would be great if that’s how it happens. -
Just a test for future reference thanks seems fine to me
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That’s quite the shift south in 24 hours around 100 miles or so which makes me think the sweet spot will be the Channel Islands as I suspected a few days back. The south east May catch the northern extent of the front as it sweeps through the channel but all will stay cold with pop ups likely and harsh penetrating frosts under clear skys and ice days for midlands north. Some sheltered parts of mid and north wales could hit double digit minimums at night brrr
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Pembroke Dangler replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Very slidery looking that systems angled nw se and no Iberian heights either -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Pembroke Dangler replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not sure the orientation of the low is right here with the block to the nw it would angle it more nw/se and disrupt into the channel leaving us all cold but it’s way out to be worrying about specifics. Nice run though and plenty of snow opportunities you’d say in the earlier periods upto 168. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
Pembroke Dangler replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wowzers that’s outstanding would be perfect all along the M4 -
I think it will correct further south in time they usually do and the Channel Islands get buried but we stay cold with snow shower chances. But you never know 42 years is a long time between big snow events so we are due one. Not including 2018 as us in Swansea we’re wondering what all the fuss was about.