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Pembroke Dangler

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    Swansea South West Wales
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    Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer

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  1. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    The Beeb graphics look like earlier ones I think they should have an update soon and show more snow further south
  2. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Just had sleet here in Bynea near Llanelli looks like a streamer could set up moisture hitting the presceli hills and causing convection hope they get heavier so they can start turning more to snow
  3. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    That's exactly where I expect it to settle and tbh the green tinge along the south coast of Wales will be pink by the early hours of Sunday morning
  4. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    I think Sunday's track of the slider is still open to review South looking at the trends of the last couple nwp runs. I think it will eventually settle on a track that takes it through the Bristol Channel and so 50 miles north of it will be snow.
  5. A slither more heights I would say around Iceland.
  6. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    They must be pretty confident of heavy showers pushing down Irish Sea coast in organised troughs I would think and also I just been on the met office most recent video forecast and the winds did have more of a northerly look about them rather than north westerly which could be better for Irish Sea streamers to get further south and more of a chance of them getting over the beacons further south.
  7. Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

    Same as 2013 when just 2 days before they had South Wales all rain and by just 12 hours before it adjusted South and we had red warnings out.
  8. I think the control run is showing a slither more heights to the north if Scotland and the first slider a fairly week affair to the south west and the second slider to head in a similar path to the first mesoscale differences but significant never the less.
  9. I think the 0oC isotherm will play a part on the second slider if the low elongates like it shows it will draw a continental feed lowering dew points so South of it will be rain north of it sleet and snow and lots of it too. Somewhere will get pasted I think.
  10. Yes just watched the forecast and it looks like they are leaning towards the gfs solution from the 12z with the slider focusing more on the sw maybe West Midlands. I think the 0oC isotherm will be key here South of it will get rain and north of it sleet and snow.
  11. If the sliders tend more South and west as can be the case here northern England and Scotland north of say Birmingham would end up in frigid cold air but mostly dry unless convection off the North Sea can make it over the Pennines but that depends on the strength of the wind .
  12. From what I can remember with the last slider situation we had in January 2013 the fronts from that hit started off as rain then turned to snow with uppers only around -2. The thing was it was pulling air in from France so the dew points were below freezing also. Looking at this chart it could well be a similar set up and so you won't need uppers of -6-7 just need the few points to be dragged down ahead of the front so this could be a snow fest for more southerners too not just the usual north of M4 folk.
  13. I did feel that the ecm was overplaying the eastward progress of the low next Sunday on the operational run, and it seemed to lower the heights to the north to quickly. Just seemed wrong to me. Westward corrections me thinks.
  14. The thing iv noticed over the years in slider scenarios is they tend to correct South and west nearer the time. I think this could well happen if the Azores high gets a bit more displaced to the west and alows a smoother progression of the energy heading towards Spain. The jet stream is certainly steering on a nw se axis on this chart so this could be locked in cold and snow for a atleast a week or ten days afterwards I would say.
  15. Guaranteed to be troughs the sst's are around 10 degrees with 850s of -8 on average convection will produce them and possibly thunder snow in some places where the clouds tower up.