Lovely 6Z run from day 9 onwards but we are relying on a shortwave being ejected east from the parent low in the Atlantic to trigger the height rise to our west at 210 which is plausible but lots that could go wrong with this evolution much like this weeks low which headed north and splits.
Wow well since this morning there have been about 10 pages of reading and I was thinking there must be a beast coming or a long fetch cross polar northerly but no it’s another garden path job and we are looking for some wedges here and there to salvage a cold weekend. Stroll on spring I’m missing my Golf and cycling and the ecm 216 looks like some warm air wafting up from Spain let’s have it if we can’t have snow and ice.
TEITS My eyebrow was raised this morning with the ecm showing a big correction south but my other eyebrow is raised looking at the aprege, could be a south of the M4 affair come tomorrow’s 00z and then Channel Islands by the 00z Tuesday.
E17boy ideally we want the system to remain shallow until it reaches the North Sea and then deepen to wrap the cold around on its western flank keeping the south in the cold air with a rain to Snow event as there’s no cold air in place before the system arrives. Like the GFS 6z shows around the 160 hours timeframe.
I think this is the mean so will be some runs which will bring the front further north and some further south and hopefully we will be stuck in the middle with snow
Yes I think we might see a flurry or two tomorrow night, just need the temps to drop before it arrives as they could be sleet rather than snow if they come to early Monday into Tuesday though could be good