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swilliam

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Everything posted by swilliam

  1. I think the op is the most important because it's the one that started with the real data (and the control). All the other runs are started with adjusted data so the op is the real one if you like.
  2. All building nicely here in Milton Keynes . Started with a single cloud about 2 and then built in situ
  3. Yes it was cluster 4 in the ECMF ensemble that was shown earlier (7 members) but not so fast
  4. I would just like to mention that this very simple representation is a bit misleading in that the grey areas are percentiles (90% I think). If you look at all the runs the op is not an outlier in the true sense of the word (as in the most extreme solution). It is of course at the top end though.
  5. You can clearly see where the uncertainty lies with the link up of the low and the low heights to the North
  6. Nice Genoa low in FI - just what we want with corresponding -10s coming into Scotlad
  7. That is some Northerly following the hot plume. GFS even has snow for the highlands
  8. could be some records broken if this came off. Looks like an extra tropical hurricane with 130km/hr winds separated by stillness in few km Probably just a GFS special of course.
  9. Nothing like that fortunately and yes it does look interesting. Very different treatment of the small low in mid Atlantic
  10. There is the HD model on meteociel now which goes to 168 in 12 hr intervals as well WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Météociel propose le modèle UKMO jusqu'à 168h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures
  11. Well before the cold was shown the modelling was showing something similar to what is predicted now, a slow moving high near us. People were complaining then as now nothing interesting showing and that we would have a boring Xmas. Then all of a sudden the High started being predicted to move NW and the discussion was around how far it would get and that it would never be far enough. In the end of course it went too far and we missed the cold all together. We have the same discussion here and I agree with VB that anything could change at this timescale, I have no idea why people just assume when cold is not shown it will always be right. I think having the high near us is a pretty good starting point - if it was over Iberia or France then this would be a real concern. Anything could happen here beyond about 6/7 days so it is just a question of being patient to see what does occur. You may be right and it ends up being South of us and this is probably the highest % outcome. However there are plenty of other options - especially with the PV on the move.
  12. Interestingly the two lows on the Atlantic in the medium term stay separated this time instead of becoming one big one - may have some effect down the line.
  13. Not sure I would describe this as awesome unless you like cold rain and sleet
  14. Yes quite as I was trying to show earlier - the focus should be more on the arrival of proper cold air and a bit less on the lows now.
  15. Icon was an improvement in terms of the low profiles for the lows to the SW 0z followed by 06z Reflected in the position of the precipitation The issue though is the cold air has not made any further progress Until we get this no real improvement is being made. Its similar for the improvement on the ECM this morning This is the improvement I shall be looking for this evening
  16. Yes it is the boundary is a few hundred miles further north (especially in Europe) but still looks just ok
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