Wilxy

AWD Only silver lining is that might be it for at least a few days!

I'm just up the road from you and I can agree on this, I tend to find the Southerly winds are worst than when the winds switch to westerly here locally, quite gusty here at the moment but any more switch to the west and it will become significantly lighter here!

Nice to see height rises towards Scandinavia, the ensembles have been toying with this idea for a few days now, feels like we could well be about to start the next cold chase! And fits in well with the MJO signal going forward!

-9.5°C low, still currently -6°C, but despite the very cold start it looks like another nice day to come.

Based on the 12z runs, Id say we are now more likely to see the alternative scenario, rather than the most likely.

To my untrained eye, there is a polar low in that flow to are north? Much better so far!

This is much better! Good angle to bring in deeper cold from the NE.

Where can I find a link to these?

So nice to see a drier outlook, hopefully turning colder along with it!

So up to 168 hours and its the ECM and GFS vs ICON, GEM, UKMO

The 5 compared at 144 hours

Looks great to me! Settled and colder!

Up to 42.7mm of rain after an exceptionally wet day across are region, not very often we get that amount, been a roller coaster start to winter!

I’ve not long drove through henfield road, and it was flooding pretty bad down there it will be absolute chaos on the roads this evening!

I actually value the ICON more than the GFS these days, it done a terrible job on today's snowfall compared to the other models!

Are we beginning to see the models underestimate the cold a little... Whilst I still believe mild air will win out as per the ensembles its possible the cold might hold on a little longer than initially expected?

Just showing the minimum pressure possible at that time frame, but using it against the other models just highlights the uncertainly with the GFS, I tried to explain it as clearly as I could.

Its showing the lowest possible pressure at that point but using it as a trend against the other models shows that the gfs is likely showing the low to far north for Thursday.

Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainty, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday. So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks. GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios. But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with!

Down to 1.3C already here in the countryside.

Cold! I still find 18°C comfortable.

You need forcing to help produce lift for a storm to develop For example tomorrow you can see there is good cape and very good wind shear but there is a lot of CIN so its going to take a big trigger to produce storms tomorrow like a hill or wind convergence but i'm sure others can explain better.

Turned very hazy here this afternoon and has limited the temp, 28.8°C after a high of 29.1°C so far.

Another very warm day, already up to 26.1°C after a minimum of 18.7°C, wonder if we can get up to 30°C for the first time this year!

Almondsbury is also another good source of Information, which is an official metoffice station.