Wilxy
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Everything posted by Wilxy
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Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
Wilxy replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice to see height rises towards Scandinavia, the ensembles have been toying with this idea for a few days now, feels like we could well be about to start the next cold chase! And fits in well with the MJO signal going forward! -
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Where can I find a link to these?
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So nice to see a drier outlook, hopefully turning colder along with it!
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So up to 168 hours and its the ECM and GFS vs ICON, GEM, UKMO
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Looks great to me! Settled and colder!
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Wilxy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I actually value the ICON more than the GFS these days, it done a terrible job on today's snowfall compared to the other models! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Wilxy replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Are we beginning to see the models underestimate the cold a little... Whilst I still believe mild air will win out as per the ensembles its possible the cold might hold on a little longer than initially expected? -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Wilxy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just showing the minimum pressure possible at that time frame, but using it against the other models just highlights the uncertainly with the GFS, I tried to explain it as clearly as I could. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Wilxy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Its showing the lowest possible pressure at that point but using it as a trend against the other models shows that the gfs is likely showing the low to far north for Thursday. -
Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
Wilxy replied to Kirkcaldy Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainty, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday. So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks. GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios. But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with! -
Cold! I still find 18°C comfortable.
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
Wilxy replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
You need forcing to help produce lift for a storm to develop For example tomorrow you can see there is good cape and very good wind shear but there is a lot of CIN so its going to take a big trigger to produce storms tomorrow like a hill or wind convergence but i'm sure others can explain better.