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Wilxy

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Posts posted by Wilxy

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Living in a dip within a dip so to say, I’m relatively sheltered IMBY so whilst gusty, I’m not expecting too much wind action here.  Mendips to the South, Quantocks to the SW, Welsh hills to the NW, Cotswolds to the North, winds tend not to affect my location too much.

    It does appear those more exposed to the West/South West weather are in for a rough evening/night though, namely Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Hampshire.  No doubt there will be various disruption & damage when we all wake up in the morning and try to commute to work/school etc.  I can’t see the railways, for one example, being in a good condition come the morning.

    I'm just up the road from you and I can agree on this, I tend to find the Southerly winds are worst than when the winds switch to westerly here locally, quite gusty here at the moment but any more switch to the west and it will become significantly lighter here!

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, AWD said:

    Just seen a rare bit of useful information posted in the model thread.  Latest from MetO regarding midweek snowfall,

    IMG_0793.thumb.jpeg.a307858fba3480d70c719b64df259bc7.jpeg

    A lot can & will change still, it’s a good few days away still but always interesting to hear what the professionals think.  Seems as though our region is still in with a chance of seeing some of the elusive white stuff, albeit that chance decreases the further north one is in the region.

    Based on the 12z runs, Id say we are now more likely to see the alternative scenario, rather than the most likely. 

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    48 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM extended clusters T264+:

    IMG_8383.thumb.png.c14bd532b3ce6f234e6a59bf7b0f7e9f.png

    I think these are a big improvement on the last few suites in this timeframe, because the uncertainty looks to be reduced, there is at least a signal here. There are two clusters (1&3) which are broadly looking to continue the pattern, together these have 28 members.  The other two clusters look more mobile.

    Where can I find a link to these?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Shaunado said:

    This has to be the weirdest cluster of LP centres I've ever seen! Thu could be amazing for some, although perhaps not IMBY. That said, my local MetO forecast is now showing rain to snow symbols!

    Its showing the lowest possible pressure at that point but using it as a trend against the other models shows that the gfs is likely showing the low to far north for Thursday.

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Wilxy

    Just thought I would share these charts to illustrate the uncertainty, and has a better understanding on what to expect come Thursday.

    ECM.thumb.png.4984f6675aa2a6b81e41284336370c86.png

    So here we have the ECM, showing the placement of lows within the ensemble suite at 1pm Thursday, as you can see it favours the low to are south so better snow risks.

    GEM.thumb.png.bc770fdd867629a30fc62e7105b99170.png

    GEM, has better agreement on where the low will be and also still to the south of the UK

    GFS.thumb.png.db4d0f0dd63e36180e28a2cbdef30620.png

    GFS, far less certain on not only the placement of the low but also where it could end up, but you can see it is further north than the other scenarios.

     

    But based on this I would assume the ECM and GEM have a better handle on the situation for Thursday, the GFS is known to blow up Lows compared to the other 2 models, but what a interesting start to winter we have been gifted with!

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    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

    Could you explain what trigger is needed? I’ve heard this loads before, but would like it explained… is it a cooler air mass coming in or something different? TIA 

    You need forcing to help produce lift for a storm to develop

    skewt.thumb.jpg.438413de175798655b213bce1f7c772a.jpg

    For example tomorrow you can see there is good cape and very good wind shear but there is a lot of CIN so its going to take a big trigger to produce storms tomorrow like a hill or wind convergence but i'm sure others can explain better.

     

     

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion

    in SW and CS England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, dr weather said:

    Yes, hard to tell how accurate the readings are. Clevedon is an idiosyncratic topography, which I won't even attempt to describe here, so I imagine that there are temperature variations even within a mile or so. Moreover, there's a lot of concrete and tarmac in the centre of Clevedon and it certainly feels warmer there than it does where I live. 

    Throughout the year, we in Portishead are typically a couple of degrees warmer than elevated Lulsgate, which seems to be the most 'official' of the Bristol weather stations, and that is reading 27 degrees at the moment. And we are usually a degree warmer than the 'Marty Hicks' weather station in north Bristol, which at the moment is showing 28.x degrees. 

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Weather data for Horfield and Filton, Bristol UK

    WWW.MARTYNHICKS.UK
    Current weather data from an automatic weather station since February 2004, including webcam, monthly archive, live updates. Temperature, humidity, rain, pressure, wind, solar and UV

    The Clevedon station I referenced has a current observation of 29.6 degrees, so more or less in keeping with that very generalised statistic.

    I don't bother taking measurements in my own garden as I once used to as it appears to have its own weird microclimate, probably because of south facing windows reflecting onto brick wall and decking that seems to have been uniquely designed to cook the soles of one's feet!

     

    Almondsbury is also another good source of Information, which is an official metoffice station.

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