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polarlow2

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Everything posted by polarlow2

  1. polarlow2
    Do you never learn?? Nowhere in the SE is going to get six inches, the conditions are not conducive!
  2. polarlow2
    Surely COBRA must be meeting today?
  3. polarlow2
    Oh come on it was hardly an 'IMBY' post - what a silly phrase that is incidentally - but I think it's true that many away from the SE may be disappointed by this particular run, that's all I was saying.
  4. polarlow2
    Appreciate the explanation, thanks.
  5. polarlow2
    I'm only just beginning to understand how to read the charts (don't have the confidence to post them yet!), but the one thing I would not do is get hung up on the details of every run. I would look for trends. The trend atm (I think), is increasingly cold next week, with an increasing risk of snow flurries the further south and east you are. Interesting to note that many of the 'downgrade' posts are from members away from the SE.
  6. polarlow2
    Ok I'm reading absolutely contradictory posts here! Or is it that these runs are ok for the SE, poor for everywhere else?
  7. polarlow2
    I know it's far too early to be talking precipitation, but is this the sort of set-up that could produce a Thames streamer? I know they are relatively rare beasts...
  8. polarlow2
    Just to nip that Jonathan Powell quote in the bud, there's not a chance of eight inches of snow anywhere in our region tonight. Jonathan Powell is the Daily Express's go-to man for any sensational, over-hyped weather story. I would ignore it frankly.
  9. polarlow2
    I don't think he was suggesting it wasn't the norm.
  10. polarlow2
    Just had a look out the window and the snow has picked up slightly here in north-west London, that's almost 24 hours of more or less constant snow. Everyone has their own opinion on this winter. For my part of the world, the spell from mid-January to now has been excellent; two good snowfalls, and a pretty solid fall last night, which included the heaviest snow I have seen since the 2009 Thames streamer. Granted, temperatures have not dipped exceptionally low, but in terms of snow this winter has been better than 10/11 and 09/10 here. More snow, more often. Can't ask for more than that.
  11. polarlow2
    Nail on the head. It's not the FI runs, it's the hyping-up that leads to disappointment. Same every winter.
  12. polarlow2
    It's trying here, definitely. Big flakes in the rain. Looking forward to going running in this, colder and wetter the better!
  13. polarlow2
    In one sense I think having little knowledge of how to read the models helps sometimes; it allows you to step back and see when we may be being led a merry dance.
  14. polarlow2
    I'm not usually one to get all emotive over prospects but I'm beginning to think this is getting gradually watered down to very standard UK winter weather. It seems any 'severe' cold modelled more than five days away continually becomes less severe as the days tick by, it's just that the watering down process is so gradual that you hardly notice it, and suddenly you've gone from very promising to very mediocre. I'm happy to be corrected by more knowledgeable members, but I've been viewing this thread for eight years now and it seems that, more often than not, a cold spell becomes less and less interesting as it approaches. 09/10 aside, obviously.
  15. polarlow2
    For your location, yes. But as you said, potentially a lot of snow for eastern, central and particularly north-eastern areas and Scotland. That's very much 'cigar' in my book.
  16. polarlow2
    I don't buy the whole 'it's happened lots of times before so it will happen again' theory. It's a convenient way for people with little knowledge to sound knowledgeable. Each scenario is different, surely.
  17. polarlow2
    Thanks to all all who answered my question. I still don't have the knowledge of the models so appreciate the explanations. Looks like London may not be ideally placed for Monday's events. That said, based on instinct I disagree with those calling for a shift south or south-westwards, I'm detecting a bit more confidence in the BBC forecasts now so I'd say what we're seeing now is what we'll get, ie Midlands northwards snow event.
  18. polarlow2
    Although I have a question: that BBC forecast suggests precipitation (mostly snow) in northern and central areas Sunday, moving north Monday...should it not be shifting south and turning progressively to snow, given that the low pressure system is moving south-westwards with an easterly win setting in. Or am I missing something...?
  19. polarlow2
    It's the ridiculous over-emotive cliches so prevalent on the model thread which, in my opinion, make it so hard to learn. One liners such as 'looks like game over for cold', or 'long route back to cold' without any useful information which really get my goat. In fairness, I really value the contribution of the more balanced members; the likes of CreweCold, Thundery Wintry Showers, and obviously Ian Ferguson. I go on that thread to try to learn from others, but the bickering and sniping and general immaturity really make it hard. And then you think, hang on, it's the weather!!
  20. polarlow2
    Thanks, thought I had it right but wasn't sure.
  21. polarlow2
    What exactly is a 'slider'? Is it a low pressure system that comes up against the block and is forced to 'slide' underneath and away, rather than pushing through?
  22. polarlow2
    I always hear talk of a 'model climbdown', but in my opinion no one model ever completely backtracks; the prevailing weather is more often a blend of what each model has forecasted. I don't know who that guy is but anyone who predicts a snow hurricane for the British Isles is, quite simply, off his rocker.
  23. polarlow2
    I'm sorry, 'snow hurricane'? I know very little about model-reading, but when has this country ever had a snow hurricane?? Seriously, you just have to use your common sense to understand how likely to varify some forecasts are!
  24. polarlow2
    Strange, David Braine says '50 years since Dunkirk', yet that forecast is from 2000...he must surely mean 60 years? Unless we were driven out of France in 1950...
  25. polarlow2
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