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  1. 1970mb greenland heights surely thats record breaking? 2010 neg nao and central pressure was around 1050-1060mb......
  2. i do believe this stratospheric warming will be a quick response warming, due to the continued mixing out of the deeper cold. since start of the season there has been continued warming, but not to sudden warming . so far so good. jma has just picked up on it today. ecm and gfs have this coming warming as sudden. i think personally this is a watch this space moment. im confident this will have a very quick effect so even if we do get a west based nao it wont last long. just my 2 pennies worth. regards mr extremes
  3. something stirring in the strat. was pretty confident of a Canadian warming event this season. although less confidence now. so now its a race to get enough disruption to the polar vortex. its an odd season what with failed east qbo. but id be very surprised if we dont have a few stratospheric events this coming season. hoping for mjo phase 8 or phase 1 especially into and later part of November. but realistically its also possible the vortex will return on steroids. but so far there are some wave attack's being shown the more the better and stronger the better. hopefully we can knock the vortex away from its usual residency, and have a Scandinavian dominated mother vortex. jma wants early wave attack. both gfs have wave attacks but further on. but regardless worth keeping an eye as this season gets under way.
  4. absolutely no surprise with the dominate heights in the northern hemisphere so far.
  5. its clear across all models that the nw to se attack is very visible right now, if it been mid November or early December there would be some wintry weather. and im sure the longer range models have no idea on forward projections. early buckled jet is always a good start although vortex is not matured just yet. but if this pattern continues could get very interesting moving forwards. as for storms this could well be the most stormy since 1986.
  6. 964mb impressive. jet certainly looks buckled at the moment. northern blocking seems dominant at the moment. jma 10hpa looks interesting to. mind you been here many times before.
  7. jma showing some slight warming will this build further. expecting some stratospheric action this year.
  8. Yes your very much right easterly looks likely. but more runs needed to see where we go after this.
  9. there be an easterly of sorts i still reckon its possible of cold northern blocking. the jma and ecm are in agreement . be interesting to see how this turns out.
  10. im looking for a retrogression of heights into northern blocking both gfs and gefs have the vortex disrupting over to Siberian side of the arctic but a cold end to march maybe into early spring. the easterly qbo must be falling deeper keep an eye on the nao and ao got a feeling northern blocking with be the form horse for awhile. but perhaps a much better summer. but back to the models easterly then cold getting mixed out. in the longer run Canadian vortex takes a holiday. bringing Europe to below average with cold pooling developing. after the mixing out of cold in the UK theirs northwesterly or a reload from the north that could possible bring a colder northeasterly or another easterly. but much colder into northeastern Europe as the Canadian segment drops down into Europe.
  11. Realistic to. some fun and games with the cold surge coming from the east.
  12. With big segment of pv over Siberian side. March does tend to deliver an easterly but jigsaw parts are coming together quick. Any further north them heights go could well have a proper cold spell. Maybe not months but perhaps a week or two. Mind you wait till the ukmo agrees with the GFS. Very cold air bottled up in the north its been very cold at the pole and around the Arctic. Wonder what the ECM says I reckon it will also go easterly.
  13. Cold end to march perhaps cold Easter to. The ECM has moved more inline with GFS. 2009/2010 we see an Azores high set up over the UK then pulled northeast bringing and easterly. I wouldn't bank on a warm up just yet. But a drying out of UK looks likely. But wintry weather is still possible down the east coast and southern areas.
  14. scandi ridge colder by mid march then perhaps there all trending colder.
  15. To be honest there's more than one model toying with colder ideas. This morning ECM and GFS looked great and the gefs looks like a cold snap and a almost situation nowhere near done deal. lots going on in the stratosphere and there's some cold on offer. Lubbly jubbly. GFS had the Atlantic and us in the freezer.
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