Jump to content


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation



  • Rank
    everything to extreme

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    portsmouth uk
  • Interests
    Gaming xbox one and PS3 ff and music hip hop eminem 2pac
  • Weather Preferences

Recent Profile Visitors

10,889 profile views
  1. Thanks Dennis for you stratosphere plots earlier. Theres a possibility of complications with model projections due to the current period of heights. But the Ecm slows the trend slightly enables a warm flow of the Greenland iceshelf a precursor of a stratospheric warming. There's also alot of warm wave activity which is somewhat putting enormous pressure on the vortex holding it over the Eastern side of the pole double whammy would be a stratospheric warming which could possibly aid in a cold end to winter into spring. The vortex is definitely wobbling this allows pressure rises in unexpected places this then also desrupts the vortex further. But we shall see the cold troposphere verses the warm stratosphere. 50/50 but the Ecm is not the worst tonight.
  2. but the glosea sees a possible ssw. but matt hugos tweet suggests different. still reckon feb will surprised depending how the sww works out. be nice to have the latter displaced vortex over the siberian side of the pole and maintaining that location. big ask i know.its been worse than 2014.. id say if the gfs and gefs along side jma for stratospheric warming event strengthens over the coming days, then there's a possibility especially if the glosea had this idea in its projection going forward.
  3. take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry. massive swathe of deep cold along the north. northwesterly pack a punch this year. they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies. now thats a cold northwesterly. even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.
  4. to be honest this is the best looking charts for going forwards towards cold, all season of coarse could be a phantom run,or garden path extravaganza, but its not the worst. seeing more colder charts over the last few days it looks like we are building momentum, but also the possibility ending up with a straight westerly. but the jet stream arcing over the uk then plunging down through scandinavia but then recurving further south in the central med, with this creating a pocket of low pressure around the central med. how long will heights hang around out west well its pressure reading are not really weak.
  5. wait for it here comes a cold surge from the north core heights out west. and ukmo is close to a northern arctic plunge very close. but this most certainly depends how out west we can get heights and a northwesterly would also be cold especially up north and west but not exclusively.
  6. yes much colder runs than early this morning from the gefs and gfs. but looks far to complicated to be right so far out. but even some very cold northwesterlies earlier in the runs.
  7. in the infamous winter of 09/10 i noticed the north pacific had very cold sst. since then the large body of warmer waters has been a constant for a number of years. every winter sees this big blown up heights northeastern pacific. which i believe helps the vortex 1 to hold its strength without to much interference unless a stratospheric warming event. to it seems to keep the vortex in the north pole location. so in these winter types although the ao is still able to go negative this alone is not enough. during the winter of 09/10 largest player was there coupled deeply neg nao as well as the ao. but since 09/10 we have not had a neg ao or nao that negative since. i believe records where broken for the nao negativity. so there for the vortex had a bad start to that winter and was heavily disrupted allowing a greenland high pressure cell that just kept going and going. the vortex was on the ropes at the start and by december there was no chance for a come back. the modoki el nino has also been a rare feature since then. and just a question the amy butler charts posted above im sure 09/10 winter was el nino year with modoki but it says on there la nina. please correct me if i'm wrong. still very interesting. However, additional signals may support the pattern flip, according to experts. "There are also some other signs of potential change late in the month, such as a weakening of the area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/whats-happening-with-the-polar-vortex-this-year/655523 at the moment i don't think the removal of the atlantic high pressure is going to do us any favours. its just not looking like our year but maybe feb or march even april. at the moment things don't look great on the stratospheric front.
  8. Indeed the last few days the Ecm projections have been somewhat zonal all the way. Gefs had some lovely charts towards the end yesterday. I've not seen GFS runs today yet but yesterday did show changes. It's also good idea to keep an eye on the jet and depth and strength of heights and depth of lows plunging down to our east. I mark down 17th to 20th of this month for a pattern change. Still have high hopes that a cold back end winter. But before this the thorn being the blocking of the northeastern side of the Pacific. Its been a monster year in year out for some time. But time will tell.
  9. i must say there is some support for this uk heights, and that's one of the strongest blocks i've seen for sometime if this is correct its a game changer. get that cold plunge running round the back then heading towards the alps and if we get in far enough west then this could end up as a fairly robust homegrown northern block most likely eventually sitting round scandinavia possibly leading to the coldest part of this winter. of coarse we still have the nightmare of the northeastern pacific ridge. but with uk or scandi type block this wouldn't be such an issue. maybe as the qbo increases into its easterly phase then this could throw up more possibilities. in the meantime it reminds me of a 1998 zonal february pattern of that year. mild wet windy almost spring like down here. but at least the models in fi will keep us checking from behind the sofa. the most reliable charts shown most of the time seem to be the noaa charts john holmes posts. but at the moment its ZONAL, vortex is slowly declining in strength but still pretty robust. got a feeling maybe winter could be a back end club banger.
  10. uncle barty loves to party. i can see records for warmth being broken this month really reminds me of winter 1998 after the super el nino. ive got a feeling this winter will come down to so close but yet so far. that vortex is on steroids relentless but not as wet as it has been down here in the sunny costa del southcoast. it would seem most of the seasonal models have been correct. im not sure that bloody northeastern pacific ridge does us much favours everytime i see it there every winter then my hopes are dashed. if we go back to 09/10 winter the north pacific sst were cold the warm pdo is not great thing at all. looks like glacier point was spot on with his indain ocean dipole ideas. hats of there. as posted above there's always some hope, but this will take something pretty strong to shift this current pattern.
  11. i agree we have some warmth around the pole not experienced enough to suggest its a ssw but id thought maybe a major wave breaking event you can see that the gfs op has the restrengthening of the polar vortex. gefs has a warmer stratosphere at the end with a more pronounced displaced polar vortex, the gfs op is by far the worst out of the bunch. and the jma pretty much more bullish than the op gfs and closer to the gefs. i've not looked at the ecm developments in the 10hpa level.
  12. i've got to agree. but the cold run of winters during cycle 24 minimum started with 2008 back end cold. its possible by mid month something could arise polar vortex has been a dominant beast this year and if i was to be realistic it would take something special to knock it of its perch. but never say never. look at 2013 march. but as you say the teleconnection have been conductive at times. but as gp pointed out the indian ocean dipole is perhaps the thorn in our side.
  13. although gem not without interest and to be honest looking at the big 3 models we are pretty close to an easterly but just not enough dig from the lower heights into the med. but its the gem so far that grabs some attention till the ecm anyway. bit colder into eastern europe and including a cold blast for most of us. i mean touch of winter lol. merry christmas everyone.
  14. well we have gefs with a warming, gfs has warming but not as much as gefs. and the jma sees this to. but the vortex is nothing but a monster this season. cant see any warmings stopping it from dominating. and zonal is an understatement. but at times ok for scotland though.
  15. anyway ive seen enough teleconnection and medium term forecast to convince me that the first half of this winter is yet another dud for the coldies. merry christmas everyone have a nice time. im even questioning the low solar activity 09/10 has to been a fluke for our tiny island. best chart is the one cold snap on ecm. at the end then zonal i suspect.
  • Create New...