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MR EXTREMES

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About MR EXTREMES

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  1. Yes your very much right easterly looks likely. but more runs needed to see where we go after this.
  2. there be an easterly of sorts i still reckon its possible of cold northern blocking. the jma and ecm are in agreement . be interesting to see how this turns out.
  3. im looking for a retrogression of heights into northern blocking both gfs and gefs have the vortex disrupting over to Siberian side of the arctic but a cold end to march maybe into early spring. the easterly qbo must be falling deeper keep an eye on the nao and ao got a feeling northern blocking with be the form horse for awhile. but perhaps a much better summer. but back to the models easterly then cold getting mixed out. in the longer run Canadian vortex takes a holiday. bringing Europe to below average with cold pooling developing. after the mixing out of cold in the UK theirs northwesterly or a reload from the north that could possible bring a colder northeasterly or another easterly. but much colder into northeastern Europe as the Canadian segment drops down into Europe.
  4. Realistic to. some fun and games with the cold surge coming from the east.
  5. With big segment of pv over Siberian side. March does tend to deliver an easterly but jigsaw parts are coming together quick. Any further north them heights go could well have a proper cold spell. Maybe not months but perhaps a week or two. Mind you wait till the ukmo agrees with the GFS. Very cold air bottled up in the north its been very cold at the pole and around the Arctic. Wonder what the ECM says I reckon it will also go easterly.
  6. Cold end to march perhaps cold Easter to. The ECM has moved more inline with GFS. 2009/2010 we see an Azores high set up over the UK then pulled northeast bringing and easterly. I wouldn't bank on a warm up just yet. But a drying out of UK looks likely. But wintry weather is still possible down the east coast and southern areas.
  7. scandi ridge colder by mid march then perhaps there all trending colder.
  8. To be honest there's more than one model toying with colder ideas. This morning ECM and GFS looked great and the gefs looks like a cold snap and a almost situation nowhere near done deal. lots going on in the stratosphere and there's some cold on offer. Lubbly jubbly. GFS had the Atlantic and us in the freezer.
  9. Been sustained warmth in the stratosphere and some extra warmth to come but even the models are sniffing around and seem to be responding to something. If the vortex is on the ropes eventually there be an opportunity. the glosea model was mentioned a little while ago and that had the possibility of a stratosphere warming. so far and about a week or two before the other models. So worth a mention I thought.
  10. Thanks Dennis for you stratosphere plots earlier. Theres a possibility of complications with model projections due to the current period of heights. But the Ecm slows the trend slightly enables a warm flow of the Greenland iceshelf a precursor of a stratospheric warming. There's also alot of warm wave activity which is somewhat putting enormous pressure on the vortex holding it over the Eastern side of the pole double whammy would be a stratospheric warming which could possibly aid in a cold end to winter into spring. The vortex is definitely wobbling this allows pressure rises in unexpected places this then also desrupts the vortex further. But we shall see the cold troposphere verses the warm stratosphere. 50/50 but the Ecm is not the worst tonight.
  11. but the glosea sees a possible ssw. but matt hugos tweet suggests different. still reckon feb will surprised depending how the sww works out. be nice to have the latter displaced vortex over the siberian side of the pole and maintaining that location. big ask i know.its been worse than 2014.. id say if the gfs and gefs along side jma for stratospheric warming event strengthens over the coming days, then there's a possibility especially if the glosea had this idea in its projection going forward.
  12. take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry. massive swathe of deep cold along the north. northwesterly pack a punch this year. they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies. now thats a cold northwesterly. even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.
  13. to be honest this is the best looking charts for going forwards towards cold, all season of coarse could be a phantom run,or garden path extravaganza, but its not the worst. seeing more colder charts over the last few days it looks like we are building momentum, but also the possibility ending up with a straight westerly. but the jet stream arcing over the uk then plunging down through scandinavia but then recurving further south in the central med, with this creating a pocket of low pressure around the central med. how long will heights hang around out west well its pressure reading are not really weak.
  14. wait for it here comes a cold surge from the north core heights out west. and ukmo is close to a northern arctic plunge very close. but this most certainly depends how out west we can get heights and a northwesterly would also be cold especially up north and west but not exclusively.
  15. yes much colder runs than early this morning from the gefs and gfs. but looks far to complicated to be right so far out. but even some very cold northwesterlies earlier in the runs.
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