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  1. although ecm is not heading the same way as gfs yet. mild wet windy north. might be a little dryer in the far south mild to warm possibly. but with such a erratic pattern almost impossible to call any forecast beyond 5 to 7 days. mjo still hanging around phase 1 to 8 these phase 8 and 1 were helpful in 09/10 for northern blocking. but for now we must sit back and watch how rigorous the polar vortex gets. at the moment looks like its ramping up. but even so an interesting winter coming up. 240 ecm zonal.
  2. gfs in the extended range looks interesting not much support but nothing like getting excited about, will it wont it lol.
  3. gfs in the extended range looks interesting not much support but nothing like getting excited about,

    will it wont it lol.


    1. karyo


      That was the 0z. The 6z is nothing like that. It is not worth looking more than 200 hours ahead.

    2. Allseasons-si


      @karyo,no more than 72-96 hrs,remember the infamous beast from the east that didn't materialize back in,.....was it 2012?

      so unless there is strong support from all the models(of which it is a rarity) past 96hrs,then i would stick within that time-frame.

  4. gem low coming round a pretty strong scandinavian block.
  5. interesting ukmo tonight. all models do struggle with such a flip to a mobile situation, but the ukmo has one of them classic shallow heights vs chunks of low pressure being thrown out by the ever strengthening vortex. unsettled and continuous forecasters nightmare. but wet windy is certainly the dominant pattern.
  6. The last chart not far of a northeasterly blast. Or northerly something a little interesting but then again the hurricane season is in full swing to bring us some stormy weather. From Sunday anyway.
  7. With the soi in such a negative el nino atmospheric set up. Increased disruption to the polar vortex could continue if I remember right October was fine but November became unsettled with heights eventually pulling north east then retrograde to Greenland where heights had nice time setting up shop. 1060mb Greenland heights prove there blocking influence definitely disrupts vortex formation. Perhaps first Arctic blast setting up sometime in October. Low solar activity amongst other options certainly would lean towards a more wintry winter compared to the last few years. Strong support has also shown in other years for blocking and epically failed but this year has more factors on side for more seasonal weather than not.
  8. This also goes with the weakened zonal winds which seem to be forecasting continuation of weak zonal wind. As said southerly warmth being pumped up into the pole is always a good thing leading into winter. Also the longevity of a neg nao must also show that possibility of Greenland heights this winter could feature much more this coming season. Any way onto the models hurricane season well underway only a matter of time before the unsettled weather takes over. But wouldn't rule out another fine spell in October even chance of Indian summer. But not complaining about this beautiful warmth and sunshine.
  9. The signs are there for return to heat 3ecm runs and the Ecm runs haven't been as volitle either. But the Gfs was first to deal the Spanish plume. But the Ecm runs look good for a classic first week's or two of July. Loads of blocking flapping all over the place. And the azores heights stronger now as we enter summer proper. Beautiful Ecm
  10. I think modelling in sea breezes cloud cover there's many times the temps and length of heatwaves is always been messy. My punt is hot weeks end and some spectacular storms hopefully.
  11. 37.2c If heat builds before storms then 38c not in possible
  12. But then also it depends on depth of warmth already established. Also warmth in the wrap around. But warm very warm plenty of moisture and thundery activity into June.
  13. Absolutely no doubt this is a very fluent pattern. But with a more general southerly and south-westerly component to the patterns I'd suggest warm to very warm humid on that note thundery breakdowns become a very real possibility with such different patterns setting up around the world. Id punt that summer this year will hold some severe weather events for the uk. But in general amplifed patterns are more likely that not. I'd wouldn't be surprised if warm to very warm spells more often than not. Ecm and gem love the heights and are more than likely to be close in the long run. The fluid movement by the ukmo is likely to be more in-between the focus on recent months has given me a insight into progressive to slow each model has its given strengths its working out what's more likely by using combined model analysis. Id expect the met Office to be pretty close to actual outcomes. Although I don't rate the ukmo in these current set ups. But the human analysis is a different story. Like the noaa anomaly charts ect ect. Absolutely nothing terrible on the horizon pretty straight forward june by the looks of things.
  14. I'd ignore the ECM tonight the switch around is way to dramatic beyond 144hrs stick to the ukmo until the ECM picks up on a different signal. But the signs are there and models are going to chop and change alot in 24hrs when you see a few days of consistent modelling then yes maybe get excited but I've to got sucked in by model run hysteria as well. with Greenland blocking being my worst enemy with the models. But I reckon we are close to a 2013 the closest since then. It's been a chaotic winter and a nightmare to forecast. But in my opinion it's not over yet. Give it a couple of weeks then yes I see you next winter lol.
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