Trace Frosti Sr

Sir, I think all climbers know that the take a huge risk; the reward is the exhileration of the feats they achieve, reaching places that very few others ever know - places both in the external, and internal, world. I vaguelly recall reading a piece by Sir Chris Bonnington a few years ago, in which he mused that many mountaineers know that they may well die doing what they love. I rather envy anyone who has that freedom of spirit. I always enjoyed the line quoted in The Blade Runner...the light that burns the brightest burns the least long.

Of course they're specific. How much more specific can you get than suggesting that there's a 2% chance of something happening? I think what you mean is that your preojection is not definite. Your spread is necessarily vague, the only thing specific is that you choose to attach probabilites to certain outcomes.

Sir, I take it that your degree was in irony, from the University of Ironic Thought, Ironicsville? Laudable though your projections are, I read your (speaking personally, rather disagreeable) post this morning berating Mr Ferric for what I take it you see as too definite projections, and then within the day you yourself are suggesting a 2% chance of less than 2C this month, and an 8% chance of 2 to 2.9C. Sauce for the goose; sauce for the gander. If anyone were to come on here and suggest that you are a charlatan in your argument then I must say that the call from me would be a very loud "hear, hear".

Sir, as one who occasionally reads and enjoys Mr Ferric's posts I suspect his use of one decimal place might not be accidental. I'm sure a few may take exception but given that the raw data used by the UKMO is collected to only 1 d.p. then to carry out any manipulation of the data, and then report at more than this precision, is to attach false precision.