Bristawl Si
-
Posts
18,943 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
10
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Bristawl Si
-
-
5 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
As usual it's hard to tell what the situation is going ahead. Looking at posts on social media and here, you see posts calling a total flop and other posts talking like the next ice age is coming.
One needs to factor in the Hyperbole 'level', associated with the frequent NW members that post in the computer model thread.
Examples:
Level 1 - Level 3. Factual, incisive, knows their stuff technically, very good at reading a chart, is confident in forecasting ahead of a chart, BUT crucially keep ramps, excitement to a minimum.
Level 4 - Level 7. These peeps are also knowledgeable, definitely can interpret a chart or 50 and will post 50 in one post so as to annoy NW members who use their mobile phones to access NW
. They're prone to some excitement, esp when the other half aint in the same room.
Level 8 - Level 10. A real mixture populate these levels. The resident NW 'cheerleaders' are in the majority here, but this segment is split between (i) those who know their stuff and love the adulation of loads of likes, they go way over the top to max out expectations for a chart at Day 14. And
(ii) those who get over excited, spend most days in their bedroom, watching every single chart on every single run, think a sleet shower is just ace, BUT in reality aint got a scooby; however, they're so in love with some other, more knowledgeable NW members.
A guide to NW Hyperbole
-
1
-
-
14 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:
So looking at somewhere like Bristol that is 'Amber' we have forecasted temps next week of 4/3/5/7/6 - thats severe cold, maybe it is these days in the UK!
Yeah, it's bulk standard temps in January, after a long wet spell. Yes, it's a little below normal but not overly so.
Been out jet washing the patio this morn (and yday morn). Not something i norm do in early January but the constant wet weather made it green and slimey, and i got fed up seeing it over the last couple of weeks.
Job done, rewarded with a roast pork lunch
.
-
3
-
-
On 05/01/2024 at 14:57, Bristawl Si said:
So, are we on our way towards this?
Sunday morn update
-
4
-
-
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
Maybe the biggest teleconnection of the lot is overriding previously understood teleconnections. This being global climate change teleconnector?
NOPE.
"...overriding previously understood..."
THE ATLANTIC
Nowt's changed on that 'front'
.
-
5
-
1
-
-
10 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:
As far as I can tell, we're getting a few days of colder temps before they start going up again. So far I'm not sure what's happening in the second half of the month. Fortunately these outlets aren't sensationalising every model run.
Looks cold next few days, here, but not overly so, before less cold air moves in 2nd half of the coming week. Night time temps forecast for around zero c or even slightly above. Again not extreme cold by any means.
Looking at Meto forecasts it seems that 2nd half of January is where precipitation chances increase, with poss of snow for those on the cold/less cold boundary.
-
12 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Does anyone know what model the BBC use for their forecasts? As looking at the EC/GFS/UKMO I don't see a low pressure coming up from the south increasing temps, and later "Wintry Showers" from the north?
Meteogroup provide weather forecasts for the Beeb; have done since 2018.
Latest info i can find from Meteogroup, as below:
MeteoGroup uses a combination of three weather prediction models to arrive at the best result. These are the European model (operated by ECMWF), the American model (operated by US NCEP) namely GFS, and the British model (produced by UKMO).
-
2
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, Flub136 said:
Sorry if this is in the wrong domain but please could someone direct me to a good explanation of “dam” and “dam thickness” and its relation to snow production. Thanks in advance.
From UK MetOffice website:
Thickness lines
Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass.
Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave.
Hope this helps your understanding.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4997806-
1
-
-
Upgrade Meto. Downgrade Meteogroup (BBC).
There's only one way to find out....
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
21 minutes ago, Flub136 said:Sorry if this is in the wrong domain but please could someone direct me to a good explanation of “dam” and “dam thickness” and its relation to snow production. Thanks in advance.
From UK MetOffice website:
Thickness lines
Pressure decreases with altitude, and thickness measures the difference in height between two standard pressure levels in the atmosphere. It is proportional to the mean temperature of this layer of air, so is a useful way of describing the temperature of an airmass.
Weather charts commonly show contour lines of 1,000-500 hPa thickness, which represent the depth (in decametres, where 1 dam = 10 m) of the layer between the 1,000 hPa and 500 hPa pressure levels. Cold, polar air has low thickness, and values of 528 dam or less frequently bring snow to the UK. Conversely, warm, tropical air has high thickness, and values in excess of 564 dam across the UK often indicate a heatwave.
Hope this helps your understanding.
-
3
-
3
-
4
-
Glorious Winter morning, sunny, 4c.
-
19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
5.6 hours of sunshine today. That is the most hours since November 25th.
I power washed all of my paths/patios today. They got very slippery with algae and slimy shizz growing.
A satisfying 4 hours!
Hmm...need to do ours over next couple of days. Normally, do them once/year around mid-March/early April ready for Spring and Summer, but the wet few months since end Summer means they're bad and v slippy right now.
-
1
-
-
Classic use of the English language
"....as they butt up...."
-
1
-
-
So, are we on our way towards this?
-
1
-
1
-
-
Lack of instability on the charts, to our south and east, seems to be the key (snow making) ingredient that is missing.
UK High with dry, cold, sometimes sunny days and frosts at night, seems to be the weather for next 10 days or so. Imby - colder than average but not overly cold - well that's what i'm seeing fwiw.
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:
Lucky it doesn't seem it'll get too cold either.
'Standard' Winter weather for here, in between the mild/rainy spells. Colder than norm average, for January (imby), but not overally so
.
-
Another fail from Meto for this afters/eve.
Charlie boy on local news yday eve, showed rain affecting area south and east of Bristol. It's been chucking it down last 3 hours.
-
Bone dry for the next week; i'll take that
-
6
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
According to "Severe Weather Europe", earlier today:
A Stratospheric Warming event has now begun, and is expected to play its role in the large-scale weather pattern change in the first half of January. With snow events over the United States and cold air periods over Europe, the second winter month finally delivers proper weather.
-
11
-
An absolute deluge all morning, but now we have blue skies.
-
5 minutes ago, Bald Eagle said:
Just dipped in for my weekly giggle at the mad thread. The word ' potential' is being used alot by those picking one computerised prediction from hundreds. Very amusing. Anyone see the darts last night?
Yep. The final 8.15 this eve. One of my mates has Luke The Nuke at 80/1, pre-tournament.
-
19 minutes ago, SunSean said:
Don't remember gale force winds on the forecast but here we are, 1 fence panel down and a piece of decking uplifted. Lovely.
Hope yer bar stays safe, Sean
-
1
-
-
Heavy rain all morning but it cleared in last hour or so. There was hardly any wind this morning but in last 20 mins it's turned extremely windy.
-
1
-
-
8 minutes ago, SunnyG said:
I have never understood this. When I lived in Rome (way more dry than UK can ever get) we never had hose pipe bans or other water restrictions. Never heard of it over there...
Depends where you live re water shortages. If you're in an area near to a constant water source, like here, there's never issues re long dry periods. Our area gets its water from a decent reservoir infrastructure, but more importantly from sources in the Welsh moutains, hills and the source of the Severn.
Stating the bleedin' obvious, as well, is the population density issue, which London and the SE have to deal with.
-
12 minutes ago, Anti-Mild said:
I've not posted for a good while in the forum - more of a lurker But i've been a member for getting on 2 decades, and some things never change.
Why, when looking at the model outputs, are people still comparing the run with the previous run, rather than with the same run 24 hours ago?
The Model Discussion thread is an absolute playground farce at times! "Disastrous run", "no it's not, it's epic", "oooh that's the chance of cold gone", "woooah, snowmageddon incoming".
Maybe I'm grouchy because I've had to work, but it's tiresome.
Been thinking much the same, lately. Big John Holmes has always said, for years, that peeps should only compare like-for-like e.g. 06z run with 06z run 24 hours earlier, NOT 06z v 12z from same day.
Still, after the dullfest and rainfest of last couple of months looks like we're in for a quiet period, with perhaps some sun, albeit colder, from this weekend for a week or so.
A welcome respite from the doom, gloom and incessant wet stuff.
South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
Nowt here, but it's got very dark as the cloud base seems to be lowering. Alex Deakin latest Meto update suggests showers this evening for South Midlands, south west and into S Wales.