Bristawl Si
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Posts posted by Bristawl Si
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Good to see the HP lurking to our South.
Temps along Spain's Costa del Sol forecast to hit 22c over next couple of days, the Canaries 25/26c.
If the HP pushes North we could be lucky and get a few 12/13c days in a week's time or so. Hopefully a dry, balmy south westerly.
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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Perhaps the meteorological chancellor of the exchequer forgot to budget for it? That's another term you will find in those discussions, "budget". "The budget of angular momentum" etc
I find it a load of absolute technobabble to me, to put it bluntly.
Another thing is that this is looking at it from the macro level, can you apply it the micro level given the size of the British Isles? Analogues are given but the number of times I have seen the given years, I can see they gave different weather for the UK.
I think it's the key when referencing the UK into the global movement of weather systems.
Micro v Macro
Peeps quickly forgot that Summer's reliance on them were a bust as well.
UK out on its own.
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Just now, lassie23 said:
i thought everyone thought the GFS was rubbish
They did the other day
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4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
None of the knowledgeable folks I've spoken to have backed up this belief at all..Many think blocking looks a good call for February.
Ask yaself this folks!
1. Would you rather believe the big boys and girls on here?
2. Would you rather believe the big boys at one of the words best weather organisations..the met.
Or 3...none of the above and believe Don Hutchings..the stevenage football coach!
How about an
Option 4
Just wait and see what actually happens
And not worry about model output
And get out and about and live your lives
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40 minutes ago, johncam said:
I think climate change must be having a effect on all the great background signals which seem most of the time to lead to heehaw. Will get a few frosts and if lucky see a flake or two this time hopefully.
Nope.
My limited understanding concludes that although they (background signals/teleconnections) may influence the general/overall weather patterns of the Northern hemisphere, this side of the Atlantic, the UK and its islands are just a v small piece of this overall geo area.
Conclusion - those background signals can bypass or have a somewhat limited impact on our actual weather.
In reality, we are already in a cold phase of Winter, albeit not overly cold (or below average temps), but a few hundred miles here and there in NW Europe, can make all the difference between v cold and cold AND/OR dry, stormy or snowy.
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5 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:
Met Office update today
A little further North please
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6 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Thinking of doing it as well this weekend, quite dry for the time of year, humidity was quite low earlier this week.
It was pretty soggy/muddy underneath, but thought i'd cut for the arrival of snow. I mean, one doesnt want tops of blades of grass popping through the snow blanket
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I actually cut the grass this lunchtime; dont think i've ever bothered before, in January
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31 minutes ago, CharlieBear9 said:
I'd guess that people who've had water in their homes haven't found it particularly "useless".
Erm...that was a week plus ago. Yes, flooded props will still have their effects for months, but why live beside a river? Or why do useless environ secs and councils allow new builds on nature's flood plains?
Oh, and by the way a proper deep freeze is way more damaging than localised floods. I mean "DEEP". When pipes burst in an area affected by a proper deep freeze it affects 000s more properties than localised flooding.
Oh, and another "by the way" i thought guilt tripping was discouraged in here. So, "useless" cold without snow is just pointless, but costs money for increased energy useage.
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2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:
Oh my the MAD thread have a met term ‘bone dry ‘ only mentioned 17 times today !
Even Nick has chucked in his towel
I will stick with the Pro’s
"Bone dry" - a term i used one week ago; hasnt been far off bar the dandruff flakes from Monday.
As others have said, an absolutely 'useless' coldish spell that's cost loot on increased energy useage at home.
Oh for the AH to muscle in for rest of Winter.
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9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Mate bbc apps would have 5c if it was minus 5...the forecast for the week ahead is cold with snow risks..im bemused as to why so many bother looking at weather Apps. It tells you nothing of the bigger picture and was only designed for folks who are to dim or couldn't be assed to read the weather charts
Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears.
And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps
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6 minutes ago, Johnp said:
Who listens to Mark Vogen?
Was thinking the same. Plus, who is he?
A little bit of 'digging' says he's a weather enthusiast.
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Just now, lassie23 said:
That would be very disappointing if, after hundreds of posts and loads of hype in this thread, we end up with 5 days of cold lol
But no surprise
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The current cold(ish) spell, has only really felt "cold" because of the wind. Daytime temps here have been around 3-6c - yes, a little below norm, but nowt exceptional for January, quite frankly. Night temps have been strangely not that cold, range minus 1c to 2c(last night).
Certainly, no where near on a par with endFeb/early March 2018 or Nov/Dec '10 or Dec09/Early Jan '10.
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17 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:
Why is the border between snow and rain always the M4? Is this by chance or is there a geographical explanation why this happens a lot?
Partly, at least
Topography
A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment.
Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon.
Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004334-
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17 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:Why is the border between snow and rain always the M4? Is this by chance or is there a geographical explanation why this happens a lot?
Partly, at least
Topography
A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment.
Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon.
Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.
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4 minutes ago, MJB said:
You should know Exeter won't form an outlook from a GEFS chart ..............LOL
UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output
, unlike some of the NW members.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003178-
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Chaos in the Strat, causes chaos in the model output for a while.
I'm sure Ian Ferguson, when he used to post in here, said so (in so many words).
Prob worth taking into account all this week when viewing the models.
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Well, that's it...a few light snow showers/flurries for 1st time this Winter, 8th January.
I reck it's fair to say that back in my childhood days, 50+ years ago, the first snow showers of Winter would've happened mid-late November, here? May not have seen much more snow in those Winters, mind you.
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29 minutes ago, Simon Moody said:
Thanks you for the response - it's appreciated. I can see that the policy recognises that the home is a brick built bungalow with a coservatory but getting an assessor to validate or reject the claim is the issue. They don't accept that their recorded wind speed or rainfall constitutes a severe enough event, therefore reject the claim rather than investigate. Meanwhile, weather reports suggests rain returning at the weekend - I have to get some kind of repair before then and will have to use first available company regardless of whether they are AXA approved - obviously, everyone I contact about repairs is crazy business with gale damage locally.
Hmm....my conclusion then, fwiw, is that any damage, rain leakage from outside, is deemed by AXA to be due to insufficient and/or faulty roof pre-storm. I.e the storm didnt cause the damage, but more so the state of the roof/conservatory pre-storm was the real cause.
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Chucking it down now;
....well, snowing steadily, with some settling
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Light snow grains falling.
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Hi.
I'm ex-Financial Services but i was always on the Investment/Pensions 'arm' of the industry.
However, having been a house owner for nigh on 36 years and knowing a fair bit from ex-colleagues on the insurance side there will be a number of issues an insurance risk assessor will look at.
Firstly, when you bought the policy did you declare that you had a conservatory attached to the house?
If you did, fine,
but if not
i'd expect your policy to be invalid, if claiming against water damage coming in at the point of conservatory attachment to the main house.
Secondly, an assessor will look to see if your house was in good condition before the rains arrived i.e. was the affected roof area already in a state of disrepair prior to the rain storm. Believe me, they will know, by looking at it post-leak.
If they've deemed it wasnt a storm, by their definition, then i'm surprised that you cant lodge a claim, so an assessor can visit your property.
Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
milder
the south could have some drier spells of weather at times, especially later in the month