Bristawl Si

Hmm.... Looking at some charts i reck we might be drier than some forecasts are suggesting for that period.

Damn! Oh well

Sunny, Is that for Stoke Gifford, S Glos?

milder the south could have some drier spells of weather at times, especially later in the month

Good to see the HP lurking to our South. Temps along Spain's Costa del Sol forecast to hit 22c over next couple of days, the Canaries 25/26c. If the HP pushes North we could be lucky and get a few 12/13c days in a week's time or so. Hopefully a dry, balmy south westerly.

I think it's the key when referencing the UK into the global movement of weather systems. Micro v Macro Peeps quickly forgot that Summer's reliance on them were a bust as well. UK out on its own.

They did the other day

How about an Option 4 Just wait and see what actually happens And not worry about model output And get out and about and live your lives

Nope. My limited understanding concludes that although they (background signals/teleconnections) may influence the general/overall weather patterns of the Northern hemisphere, this side of the Atlantic, the UK and its islands are just a v small piece of this overall geo area. Conclusion - those background signals can bypass or have a somewhat limited impact on our actual weather. In reality, we are already in a cold phase of Winter, albeit not overly cold (or below average temps), but a few hundred miles here and there in NW Europe, can make all the difference between v cold and cold AND/OR dry, stormy or snowy.

A little further North please

It was pretty soggy/muddy underneath, but thought i'd cut for the arrival of snow. I mean, one doesnt want tops of blades of grass popping through the snow blanket.

I actually cut the grass this lunchtime; dont think i've ever bothered before, in January.

Erm...that was a week plus ago. Yes, flooded props will still have their effects for months, but why live beside a river? Or why do useless environ secs and councils allow new builds on nature's flood plains? Oh, and by the way a proper deep freeze is way more damaging than localised floods. I mean "DEEP". When pipes burst in an area affected by a proper deep freeze it affects 000s more properties than localised flooding. Oh, and another "by the way" i thought guilt tripping was discouraged in here. So, "useless" cold without snow is just pointless, but costs money for increased energy useage.

"Bone dry" - a term i used one week ago; hasnt been far off bar the dandruff flakes from Monday. As others have said, an absolutely 'useless' coldish spell that's cost loot on increased energy useage at home. Oh for the AH to muscle in for rest of Winter.

Actually, most weather apps tap into latest model output, but, YES, are prob one time output behind, which in great scheme of things aint much. Conclusion they're not that far out, timewise, maybe one run in arrears. And, as most of the sane population dont analyse every computer weather model output run, whilst rocking on their beds, app updates are actually 'good enough' for vast maj of normal peeps.

Was thinking the same. Plus, who is he? A little bit of 'digging' says he's a weather enthusiast.

But no surprise. The current cold(ish) spell, has only really felt "cold" because of the wind. Daytime temps here have been around 3-6c - yes, a little below norm, but nowt exceptional for January, quite frankly. Night temps have been strangely not that cold, range minus 1c to 2c(last night). Certainly, no where near on a par with endFeb/early March 2018 or Nov/Dec '10 or Dec09/Early Jan '10.

Partly, at least Topography A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment. Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon. Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5004334

Partly, at least Topography A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment. Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon. Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.

UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output, unlike some of the NW members. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003178

UK MetO use a blend in their numerical forecasting system. And they defo wont fret every 6 hours over GFS output, unlike some of the NW members.

Chaos in the Strat, causes chaos in the model output for a while. I'm sure Ian Ferguson, when he used to post in here, said so (in so many words). Prob worth taking into account all this week when viewing the models.

Well, that's it...a few light snow showers/flurries for 1st time this Winter, 8th January. I reck it's fair to say that back in my childhood days, 50+ years ago, the first snow showers of Winter would've happened mid-late November, here? May not have seen much more snow in those Winters, mind you.

Hmm....my conclusion then, fwiw, is that any damage, rain leakage from outside, is deemed by AXA to be due to insufficient and/or faulty roof pre-storm. I.e the storm didnt cause the damage, but more so the state of the roof/conservatory pre-storm was the real cause.

Lampost action 20240108_182742.mp4