Bristawl Si

What happens in November means zilch all for rest of winter. 6/7 years ago here in the south west we had decent snow in late Nov and the rest of the winter was fairly mild and wet. A few yrs ago we had a really mild and v wet november and the rest of winter was quite cold with some snow - i think that was 2009/10 but not sure. Then 2010/11 was cold 2nd half Nov and into December -Jan/Feb pretty average i think. From these examples in recent yrs u can see it varies.

1st pint of thatchers just coming to an end! cheers!

How do u know that for sure? If u genuinely do know and can make this kind of statement every year and are proven right each year you will become a very rich man. Good luck to you!

Any chance of picking my lottery numbers for tomorrow? Come to think of it could you pick them for the 1st Saturday in January? Some of the posts in here are truly laughable - it's not even mid-October yet!

So what went wrong with the forecast? As late as 10.30 last night the forecast was for rain all thru the early hours and dreadful rush hour. Minimal here. Poor show - so how people put faith in models predicting a week or two in advance is beyond me. And as for months ahead!

Exactly - but my 'prediction' does slightly favour colder and snowier than last winter. As with last year's winter forecast i've used 'a law of averages' hunch methodology. I believe we are in a 10-year cycle of generally colder, snowier winters interrupted by less cold winters (like last winter). It takes me about 90 seconds and is likely to be as accurate as other, more thought out forecasts. I'm in no way dismissing those on NW that genuinely have real meto talent and who use v scientific methodology - i just don't have that knowledge & expertise.

Latest winter forecast from me: Cold and snowy at times, certainly 'better' than last Winter. But also spells of milder weather.

Anyone know when the Netweather winter forecast is due out -bit early yet i know.

Blizzards in Bristol: New Years Eve 1978, followed by a couple more in Jan 1979 December 1981 Mid-Jan 1987 - can't remember the exact date If not technically blizzards pretty damn close imo.

Havent been in the regional thread for a while - great to see you posting on here again, after what seems like a two year 'sabattical'! Hope u post thru the winter - yr contribution is always well appreciated in this particular thread.

Just had a trawl around your website, Gibby - absolutely fascinating - loved your piece on different cloud types.

Just hitting central Bristol right now - torrential rain and thunder. Unusually cold out there as well.

Monsoon-like this morning in central Bristol. Not long until my annual Sept visit to The Algarve - bring it on!

Cheers

If the decent weather stretches beyond the w/e 8th/9th Sept i'll miss it - off to the Algarve,Portugal for a week+. Just hope pressure remains High down there - don't want any LPs developing down over Iberia whilst i'm away.

Lashing down here in North Bristol. Washout day i guess.

How the hell can u say this kind of pattern will dominate the coming winter? Ru the second coming?

Great to see that Summer could be extended into September - i usually regard Sept as Summer in most years. Hope the longer range model output turns out correct.

Beautiful day now in north bristol. same as yday sun comes out in full around lunchtime. After the doom and gloom forecasts in the main model disc thread by some members, the weekend's been half decent.

Bit of a damp squib here in Bristol. Heavy rain from about 10 til 1. Winds squally but nothing severe. Cant see what all the fuss was about to be honest. Reading some of the posts on here in last couple of days you'd have thought it was going to be weather armageddon!

there's a surprise! U cant resist posting a chart that has an autumn look about it! Sunshine and showers of last couple of wks looks like continuing for next couple of wks, bar tom - but even that doesnt look like the 'disaster' some were predicting on here. Temps look warm for most of time. Dare i say it but a typical august to me. And dont get me wrong but i'd luv a totally settled spell.

There's been more than enough dire predictions on here in last two weeks, which haven' t really materialised so i'll take the latest with a warehouse load of salt. Not the best summer outlook, granted, but no June/1st half of July that's for certain.

V warm this eve - even hot. Summer can go onto end Sept in my opinion. Meterological summer end (31st Aug) means zilch all if daytime temps continue into 20s and it's sunny.

Things do seem to be improving for the medium term (thankfully the awful weather of June and upto mid-July has not made a reappearance) and TWS's great 'call' for a mainly sunny 'high' for next 3 days, rather than a cloudy one as called by a couple of other posters, looks like coming to fruition as well.

Fact?! I think not. I've never heard or been taught that. What a pile of tosh! Summer holidays over by then?! Another pile of tosh! Portugal beckons in Sept.