Severe Siberian icy blast

Thing is we're struggling to get rid of the positive heights over southern Europe, we're after a cut off high and it looks unlikely atm, great to see heights building into northern territories but there's a reluctance we can't ignore to have the ignition to eject the cold west, without low heights into southern Europe its gonna be painfull

The gems the best in the sense it cuts off the high pressure with lower heights to the south, Gfs has high pressure across almost all of Europe, with no cut off high, We need low pressure over the med rather than the Atlantic if we're to get deep cold into the UK, we don't mind both so long as the low pressure in the med rules the roost, keeping the easterly feed, in fact perfect position is Italy, High pressure in Europe and low pressure in the Atlantic will give us a southeasterly...

Thing is the jet profile is ridging above the UK toward southern Greenland then over toward scandi and back looping back across Europe, I'm not sure where people think the high lat block is gonna come from so long as the jet remains north of the UK?

I understand what your saying but firstly this time of year you wont get a rainy easterly normally, it will either be cold and grey or cold and snow showers without low pressure involved. We won't necessarily be disappointed with a long sea track, in fact we need the sea to being the convection, A southeasterly and we won't get the ppn, we need widely - 10 850s to bring convective snow showers in land, Personally my favourite as a midlander is low pressure moving up from the south against the block, widespread snow on a stiff easterly, driving snow, drifting, and blizzards.

Sheikhy your the biggest panicker on hear your the one that's gonna give me my break down lol Exctasy to pain every few hours is not the way forward fella! We need to be calm and let the mods sort it, the ecm has risen hopes a little but it changes from run to run and tomorrow it may not be here, but the gfs may show it so patience really is the key for now!

It's the first of December and so far this place has had more ups and down in the last 2 wks than my 10 year marriage had. And even that ended! Relax, drink wine, don't panic every single time the over night runs show something different to the 18z, Don't call time on winter because the 12z on the very first day of winter hasn't showed what we wanted!!!! The mods are coming to terms with the change in the atmosphere from the wedges of high to our Northeast to the strong developing vortex over Canada they will get a grip in time and probably get a middle ground. But please, are we really calling for a ssw to "salvage" our winter already you guys will give me another breakdown lol

All in all very interesting charts atm, the low pressure drama hanging around to the north east was always gonna happen as its the very cold air interacting with the north sea, iv seen easterlies robbed off us at t96 who remembers that ecm from 2012!? The thing is whilst we look like been in the battle line these also produce very snowy times so whilst we all hope want the holy grail, il be quite surprised if we don't have 2 or 3 snow events over the next 10 days or so!

I think the mojo isn't been that impacting atm, it may help initially but once you can get low pressure over southern Europe the high/wedge will sufficiently propped. The most interesting start to a season for a while!

Low amplitude 6/7 id say ideally we want mid amplitude minimum to have an impact on the jet waves but out of the COD is good, the wedges we see atm is not in anyway linked, the wedges are primed because of the angle of the jet, the deep cold building and the position of the vortex pieces Im setting myself up for a fall here by the pros please correct if wrong

But my point to you is what makes the run anymore valid than the last? The ensembles are as fickle as a prostitutes nighty we know this lol

Yet you also big up the easterly readily when one runs shows this!? The signal remains, a build of severe cold to the east, particularly for this time of year you have to look at the synoptics in awe really... The 0z runs I don't know the science behind this but for the last few years iv noticed seem to be the worst(or best depending on how you look at it!) run of the day. Scandinavian highs are notoriously hard to handle, managing the power of the Atlantic, understanding how the energy splits as it hits the cold air, iv saw things completly change in the models inside t96 when dealing with wedges, who remembers the sudden cold of January 2013? In that case it was the deep cold over scandi and a quick reaction to the SSW, however its the wedges of high and the cold air that's hard for the models, and it's just a different variation of what MAY happen although unlikely imo.

Potential for wedges directly north/ north east diverting things more nw/se? Looks primed

Yes I agree there sister however we're beginning to see repeated attempts to bring a peice of the vortex from the northeast over the UK, the very low thickness values attached with that combined with even modest uppers of - 5 850's could bring lots of snow, even 850s of - 4 may be enough due to the low thickness values, what we don't want is too much mild air bought down inside it which can happen, nothings ever cut and dry with UK winters, but if we can combine cold uppers with deep thickness values we could well be in for a very special treat but details vary from run to run at this stage but the Atlantic looks dead in the water for late November which is great news for early winter ps my heel is in bits from last night's footie mark!

Hahah yes mate lol I only come out to play when it's either thundery or winter lol

Haha welcome to the pack my sibling, my older brother Mark, who pretends to his wife I'm alot more obsessive over the weather than I am constantly asks me radar images to see if the snow is heading to him and refuses under any circumstances than to live anywhere below 500ft below sea level

Haha the first post of the season I do was gonna be a really wel thought out bit of info but this comment has made me give nothing worthy at all apart from laugh out loud and adds humour to this place welcome to the new winter thread where all us weather nuts find peace and tranquiltity talking about how long we think the Scandinavian high will last and whether we need - 8 or - 11 850's to produce low level snow or not, rather than communicating with family members at 9pm at night because we're all excited about the 18gfs about to come out hoping for the holy grail!!!!!!

Considering the over night runs are consistently dog poo, it's an improvement, Let's look for a better day, and good 12z

That rings true, and most my life iv been between redditch, Alcester and evesham and now wellseborne, I did live in the cotswolds with my x for about 7 years and my fate drastically improved, now I watch snow showers avoid wellseborne like the plague iv had nothing more than a sprinkling of snow recently and its painfull watching showers doing there very best to avoid the area. I'm moving to brum in a few years near my bro, just wanna find a country area rather than built up? Any ideas

Tbh I fully expect the cold air to win, the signals had a wobble on the models we use recently, but this mornings 0z is the strongest yet how many times have the over night runs done this? Also the last weather on BBC1 with carrol, with new graphics as it changed from the one before it, did a rare and extended look into next wk where she says they are expecting the cold air to run, that was with the over night runs on her graphics, I expect a shuttle shift over the next day or 2, a milder day or 2 yes, but with cold air fighting back

Who says that mate I haven't seen anything

Iv missed the streamer line for the last 24 hours by about 3 miles and still not in it. I'm honestly cursed I hate living in low ground with a passion

Why are we expecting more of a N/E S/W track?

I saw this earlier because its gone flat atm. You got a pic?

I'm afraid on this occasion that's not the case. It's melted. The surfaces are wet when an hr ago they were white, as soon as they Feb sun plays out it melts

Why do you look at a weather app its pointless. Stick to radar and models,