Severe Siberian icy blast

Quite confusing as your using old data , ecm and the 18z give a good snow event for many central areas , with Ian hinting the meto may well put warnings out tomorrow .

It really depends , u can have a quick trop response almost immediately on occasion , the warming of jan 2013 saw a quick response of about 5/6 days , but I would normally say about 20+ days on avarage .

Hemispherically speaking there's quite a difference comparing the 12 and the 18z at a reasonable time frame , strong hights over the polar regions really ensuring the split in the vortex is maintained , it could well be now as we move through the next wk we see the ramifications of the minor SSW begin to show its hand .

Thanks for clearing that up I must of misread something then . But yes the signal for a Scandi high is gaining strength . It's almost like we'r finally seeing the pattern we expected to see this winter , just maybe 3 wks later !

Taking this on face value that's got sliders written all over it , infact one would say looking at that alone that's a very snowy set up for the uk? As they drain into europe the key will be weather we can get any separation of the sliders , if we can then you would think we will pull these colder uppers from over eastern Europe over us , which will obviously hold us in good stead for the next slider ? But even if not , I'm sure we'r sitting in negative uppers , we just hope the atlanitc doesnt move milder uppers over us , if we can sit with uppers of maybe -3 with a gentle southern/southeasterly wind before the event then fun and games will ensue ! But that's a strong anomaly over Scandi showing its hand . Blue army I'm just a bit puzzled because with the vortex taking a trip to Siberia in 10ish days , that doesn't realy promote a Scandi high does it? Maybe it can retrogress west ??

Yes woke up to a dusting . Nice to see

You no what frustrates me ?! It's when I watch the Beeb forecast and they talk of cold and snow and then show the temps for today, through til Sunday and In large areas of England it's showing 6/7/8c ! For some reason they always over egg the temps , I'm guessing it's city centre temps cause of where they're postioned but it gives the wrong Impression . Not sure how next wks gonna go , cold for sure , snow for sure , for some , but we have no idea of where , the North is more or less guaranteed at some point , whether that's in the form of showers/troughs/weather fronts nobody knows , probably all 3 . But it's best we all try not get wound up by the day to day differences of the models and look for trends ! Also it's interstinf to note cohens update re the AO to go negative. I feel it's pointless looking at means at t240 because we no cold spell developments can appear in the t168 range and earlier once the mods pick up on a new trend. But be interesting to see where we head toward February!

Or maybe you head over to the learning area and learn how to read charts Re Sunday , it's beginning to look more interesting with fax's been the best guide we can look to now , also coming into the Euro4 range aswell so that will give us all a good idea of what to expect .

Lol I did exactly the same , went to the model thread and got bombarded by "downgrades, rain fest , it's all over posts " then looked at the models myself and saw things quite differently , the easterly certainly isn't there like it was , but we have stagnant cold air , with fronts and troughs straddling the country at nearly all time frames up to the t144 mark , the only way an easterly delivers to the majority Is if the air is at least -10 uppers crossing the North Sea , for most it's freezing but dry . Unless of course we have fronts pushing up from the south , but then its frontal snow and not as a result from the easterly itself .The ukmo looks snowy , and the ECM looks the same , maybe a brief milder blip at t168 , but when the models are struggling with what's 72hrs away why look in la la land ? I'm sure things will change again as ever it's a developing situation but the next 7 days at the very least look cold and snowy .

Well im in chelt very low ground and it's sleeping so may be snow at home ?!

I agree that the charts look a tad messy but there's plenty of time for changes still , next wk looks cold and wintry , whether that be heavy settling snow or wet sleet and snow nobody knows yet , but enjoy the ride!

Mate iv been having a right mere with meteociel for the ukmo , can't see the data on there

O my days look at those uppers heading our way

Well it seems you have missed very important factors pointed out by many . Firstly why look at a chart 10 days away when you have cold and snow from 48 hrs ? Secondly you have cherry picked 2 charts when in reality they are just the operational version of a very complex computer model consitsted of 22(?) ens , (gfs). Re the ukmo , the last chart on the computer model is the most volatile , how many times do you see the 144 hr time frame come into fruition ? At the very best it can give you an idea of a pattern maybe , ie high pressure/low pressure dominating , but even then your asking a lot , many many times we see low pressure systems been over egged , ie , if it's over doing the depth of the low , then it's over doing the northerly/easterly progression of it which also means the warm sectors are over done . And finally If you take the worlds best model (ecm) and take a look ens and mean on this occasion you will see its over doing everything I mention above , so the likelyhood of a prolonged cold spell has increased dramatically this eve , but for the sake of sanity why don't we focus on the next 7 days first , which includes , cold weather , sever cold over snow fields , ice , snow , a major wind event , with blustery ,wintry ,thundery showers including hail , sleet , snow , and thunder , all within a 24hr period !

See my annalysis lol iv worked it all out !!!

Il contemplate it for you !A coupe of possibilities here , both include a cross polar flow , I think the Atlantic ridge looks like been part of the mega block over the pole. With a chunk of very cold uppers and associated chunk of the vortex slips casualy into Siberia , marching west aided by the low in Southern Europe which looks quite deep actually , either way the Atlantic looks blocked ! Any ideas most welcome

You no what I have to be honest although there was signs of a change to colder conditions . I really didn't expect to be heading into a freeze. I no its not 2010 but it looks full of potential and certainly has the ability of been colder than Jan 2013 . Those events was very marginal . But ironically it won't match the march 2013 freeze which was a rare event . But certainly real cold air with lots of snow opportunities to give the forecasters headaches. It's also notable that this is mainly MJO driven which again after been in the slumber for months is nice to see it gaining momentum finally. With the strat event that took place in the first 10 days of Jan I would estimate normally 20-25 days after the event so maybe another week before we see if any trop effects will be felt ? Be nice to go from this easterly to a Greenland high wouldn't high wouldn't it ? I'm one happy chappy today despite lack of sleep watching the snow most the night !

Got a covering on most surfaces of about 2cm's , apart from the road.

Yes very heavy snow and white . Looks like we'v all got lots to come aswell . Enjoy folks

I'm experiencing the heaviest snow iv had in years. Looks a bit of lul after this beofre the next batch . Later on should be interesting I just need some sleep !

Got heavy snow finally and settling

The streamer is a fraction North at the min hope it sinks a tad , if it does il get battered , if not il be in a vile mood lol . Have you had much ?

So far iv missed every shower either 10 miles south of north it's so frustrating

I remember you saying it was unlikely , I would think the risk would be gone in the morn then. Re Thursday and fri , iv been watching this develop and it looks more or less a complete re-run of tomorrow night . Certainly quite an unusual set up this wk with the word cold zonality been very apt for once and helps us to understand perhaps why some folk bang on about true cold zonality , the word is loosely used on hear normally with cold and cool been mixed up , but this wk it really is cold zonality . What's your take on next wk Ian ? A Scandi/Iceland high is a real possibility it seems ? Thanks

Whilst the finer detail certainly needs refinement , the general theme of hights rising North of the uk is gaining momentum, the idea of sliders infact very very similar to the January 17th 2013 event is certainly there, whether we then get the Atlantic pushing through or the development of cut off low pressure remains to be seen but certainly developments over the last 4 days or so with maybe the results of the strat warming staring to show its hand . Also forgot to add we have the gfs and the gfs(p) singing from similar song sheets this eve