Severe Siberian icy blast

February 22

nick sussex i was only speaking about this to my mate at the pub last night its showed alot of promise but its fell apart time and time again its been incredibly frustrating I read some very reasoned out articles and informative well put together comments on hear that all pointed to the same place which was a fun winter, its so fascinating though and that's the draw for us all!

Winters sometimes the only thing that's kept me going in life lol what a disappointment

February 13

We've been chasing fantom cold spells all winter do we actually expect to see anything of note months end?

Id love it to happen but this year northern blocking has failed to get a foothold, the AO has been negative quite alot but getting the NAO to go negative has been tough.

And now we have people talking about a 1990 style easterly with charts that's over t200 hours is just laughable in all honesty because it does seem as if there's little realism in this place at times.

It will take something special to deliver in March and do really think this is a possibility?

We have had several strat warnings so far and I've not seen a cm!

February 12

minus10 we've been saying this all winter.

Its been an absolute disaster and I'm personally going to do alot more research into meteorology because im not convinced about some of the methods been used because in all honesty it's been a disaster from a forecasting perspective. Background signals have been misinterpreted and the significance of EAMT events working in tandem with the MJO has not been impacted like anticipated, we can point towards the strat warmings for "ruining" things but i don't buy that either.

Its been a frustrating one to say the least but we get mugged off by the weather every single year in our country and this year has been a spectacular fail.

But i guess im in awe of the sheer magnificence of the weather and how complicated it really is.

I want warmth now because i can't handle another false dawn!

February 9

nick sussex ok so why do you think this is? Because its been uncanny this winter. Where's the jet stream surely it's straight over us lol

February 8

MJB nothing at all, you're twisting my words.

Im allowed to vent i speak truth only. When ones obsess it misleads many into thinking this particular path is the outcome yet in reality a+b doesn't make 3.

And if it can go wrong it will.

Many haven't seen a fake this winter

February 8

TEITS But the thing is even when we have full spreads showing northern blocking etc we always seem to miss out and it becomes a fleeting visit.

This year has been a joke in all honesty. It's all well and good removing posts when they don't read what you want but the reality is as a model output discussion, then airing frustration on hear surely is relevant particularly when it relates directly to the forcing drivers we've all obsessed over in depth then it's completely relevant.

Every single time we enter into an opportunity whether it's a wave break, trop led, strat led, etc it implodes infront of our very eyes.

I think there's a lack of ownership on hear when things turn out different.

Be humble when it comes to the weather its the best way and understand that we dont know everything and its a constant learning curv but loud drums all winter has been pounded about cold on hear yet it's becoming the opposite this year and i think different angles need to be took moving forward and look at other drivers because the we rely so heavily on forecasts which hasn't actually happened yet.

And even when they do fall into place we still manage to go wrong.

We can have all the drivers in place and be left with a limpet low hanging around for days removing all cold from Europe with ease,

Yet we can have trop led events in zonal dominated pattern and still receive snow.

I think too much weight has been placed on drivers. When in reality It means very little.

February 8

So this mid feb cold spell has imploded too has it?

Tbh this place is the reason for this constant let down because we all get roped into background signals etc but it means sweet FA in Britain.

The whole of Europe looks warm.

People need to be honest with themselves and own up that the weather does what it wants.

People rely so heavily on background drivers. What a boring horrible winter.

Mild interludes turn unto a mild month and cold spell become a blink and will miss it job.

All abit embarrassing this is tbh

February 5

What a rubbish set of models lets hope my curries better lol

February 3

feb1991blizzard how will you cope

February 1

@northwestsnowhave you just moved house ?

January 20

54 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Middle of Feb is exactly when those inflated southern Euro heights dissipate. Only then do we see the opportunity for the white stuff we are all craving.

Mid feb is 2 is wks of winter left.

It wouldn't surprise me to see this years tease to peter out into another year of potential but never quite lit the cigar, we were talking about predominant northerly blocking with small windows of zonal Atlantic influence. In reality it look like we face a longer period of sustained westerly weather.

Do i believe it all? No.

But a drop in AMM along with a vortex shake up that didn't go our way when we already had a favourable pattern, add into the mix a very cold winter period over USA which we all know is like a spark to an engine igniting the pond resulting in a +nao,

Give it another 10 days and we're all be turning to March for the fix i just hope this year does us proud we all deserve it.

From a synoptic perspective its been fascinating.

Lets hope our beloved background drivers bounce back but mid Feb is not good enough considering how promising its looked.

Stoke north, great winter and for the Northwest with two big snow events in from first wk of Dec and the last one i know some places were buried and parts of Scotland and NI have done well too but for places brum south it's been pants from a snow respective.

January 18

33 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This isn’t your typical SSW bringing down a strong vortex with big surface impacts. We already have a weak vortex & have done for most of winter, this SSW as a result is a bit like adding a glass of water to an ocean and expecting a big change.

Despite the warming on the 16th being technically a major SSW, we’ve already seen a typical SSW response (current cold) from the previous minor event.

In fact, there have now been 3 warming events this season!

Strong vortex’s fall hard.. a weak vortex being punched doesn’t. A quick return to average strength in the next couple of weeks is now very likely, we’ve lost the tropospheric “punching”.

Not convinced this is nailed tbh.

Alot of conflicting posts regarding whats really leading the pattern.

This cold spell has been trop led, which has aided the Canadian warming no?

January 18

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You’d expect any response likely within the next two weeks to now be picked up by the models (especially eps ) as the warmings of the past three weeks are pretty much done

nothing solid showing yet although the scandi ridge solution is the most common departure from the norm that we are seeing play out

@jules216 - I think you’re in a decent location for weeks 2 and 3. Either a cold trough or a good chance of a hit from a deep cold pool

Thanks for replying because i did quote you last night so thanks for getting back.

Remember 2013 when we had a quick trop response think around 6th january, you were all over it at the time.

Then we had that mad cold march too.

Is it possible of an early response this time because they're quite unpredictable

January 18

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Difficult to know yet how reliable the 46 dayer is with anything since it is a new approach with 100 low resolution runs since last year. But as @Met4Cast posted above, other models are showing the same MJO trend.

It has been a very unusual winter in the stratosphere, starting with that Canadian warming (the first for 30 odd years). But that left the strat vortex weak, and allowed the trop to lead the dance since. What effect the latest warming will have into February is not clear, but provided the strat vortex doesn’t end up in the wrong place, it may at least allow the upcoming trop drivers for amplification to unfold unfettered.

Again im catching up now, so what gets me with the warming that's undergoing this week why are people so quick to write the next wk or two off when a fast response may happen and change the entire game

January 18

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The state of the stratosphere needs to be taken into account. An unstable profile (such as we have now) often favours higher latitude blocking. If the strat had been in a strong position we'd likely have seen the current blocking fail.

SSW's cannot be predicted with any real accuracy at longer ranges so it's always a wildcard. Unfortunately on this occasion instead of amplifying the blocking signal, it's flattened it with a displacement event. You win some, you lose some..

Well we've had two warmings over Canada now, ironically the recent spike in strat temps have had the effect we didnt want.

I've only Just caught up i lost pages when it went mad and needed to understand because i was under the impression this last warming ongoing the last few days would infiltrate itself into the modeling over the coming 10 days but you're saying we had a quick response and next WK is the response?!

January 17

25 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Sure, here's the Swiss model - can't download images for whatever reason -

Access Denied

METEOLOGIX.COM

and the harmonie snapshot for tomorrow evening

That makes it's way southwards but starts weakening

I suspect this is showing convection limited so expect more showers than what this is showing. The Swiss model has a good reputation of managing convection so I'll happily take that run , shows showers from the Chester Gap as early as 2/3 in the afternoon.

So we got know pics of the swiss lol?

January 17

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Above average for a short while but not a ragingly strong spv. And then the gefs seem to want to drop it back a little below average by end week 2. The gfs op looks like it wants to stretch it across the pole which could make things interesting if we get a renewed Asian warming.

yesterdays ec46 kept it a little a little above average for the next month or so with little sign of any drop off in flow. Centred ne of svaalbard.

gefs end week 2 are approx in that ballpark

I would agree that this would make a full blown Greenland ridge less likely but we could get a griceland fella with that arrangement. The upper strat pv doesn’t necessarily imprint precisely into the tpv. It’s can often be on an angle whereby the spv could be over svaalbard high up and the tpv w Greenland/ne Canada.

But that's only now, we all know after a ssw despite the strat layers built into to many of the main models, things can change once the physical process is underway or passed, and that straight away is a red flag with whats been sold to us atm model wise.

Has this latest warming been modeled well? I certainly haven't saw too much about this but its been a mad house this place with pages upon pages so its possible i missed bits i really need to stop the lazy attitude i notice to have developed which is rely heavily on this place all the charts but i miss some of it during busy spells!

I do feel quite disappointed tbh with the way the entire cold spell has become after so much early promise but im very optimistic regarding the next 2 months into mid March with a notable cold and snow spell for many.

Trying to manage expectations in this country is very challenging when we can have most places to the south of UK and north of stafford have saw quite a bit of snow lately i feel as if i threw two 6,s and ended up with 4!

January 17

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Newest to oldest for 12z 25th still a very mild position but the base seems to be gaining more height. If these trends continue SE parts especially will start seeing cooler flows from near continent.

Well the core of the heights have gone from Spain/Italy to Belgium/Denmark so a definite movement north.

All models were pointing toward a lengthy cold spell with flatliners on the ensembles now a wk later we're looking at a lengthy mild sleep and i dont believe it will go on any longer than a wk. The models will change over the wkend as the models get to grip with the pattern change and the fact we've just had a reversal the last day or so or at least very close.

So think more changes are on the way

January 16

Well there's a been one of hell of a screw up by the weather forecasts because that snow for central belt of Scotland into this morning is about 200 miles further south which has in turn but alot of people further south into the picture.

Might move south abit more over the coming hours but those bham north could wake up to a few surprises

January 15

1 hour ago, markw2680 said:

It would be nice but tbh Iv lost all faith and hope in model watching now

Oh Mark have a day off its the middle of January lol

January 15

Looks like Wednesday could have some moisture coming in from the east?...

January 14

33 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

If anyone’s interested I’ve just had a sleet shower

What altitude are you?!

January 13

5 hours ago, MJB said:

You clearly have a lot to learn, people chase snow, they don't come on here looking for a frost lol

Most are looking beyond this week because there are no snow depths to talk about, no chat of warnings etc . Searching the next signs of a block.

Will it be cold yes, will there be many Ice days ? I doubt it, will most of the population see -10 at night ? I doubt it.

Reading the MET update - Towards the end of the week or more likely over next weekend, the start of a transition back to less cold conditions is likely as Atlantic systems start to arrive from the west brining spells of rain

So I doubt very much models are overdoing zonal flow....................as much as it pains us.

Understood but with regards to the move towards what we're told is brief less cold with the understanding wedges can still help to deflect the lows south? I got my kids yesterday for the wkend and it seems very different to the other day lol

January 13

If it can go wrong it will. So the pv on the move and its muting background drivers.

I think this place hypes everything up so much and then a slight hint at a change and before you know it the mods in full on zonal.

The drivers have always pointed towards a lag in blocking but alot of people on hear either have no idea how to read informative posts or it goes over you're heads because the drum that's been banged this morning in hear is doom.

Im going to sit it out and see what happens we have a wk of cold air lets see what happens nearer the time

January 13

32 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I think the hope of wedges remaining to the north with colder air across the UK beyond the 20th can be discounted now, this is a very strong signal from the EPS for a return to milder, wetter weather.

The Canadian PV lobe being pulled towards Siberia (likely thanks to the recent warming) is the dominating signal and will override any potential blocking.

Late January into early February however does still hold potential for a return to more blocked conditions with this next momentum surge.

Before all of that though - A week of cold weather across the whole of the UK with the potential for snowfall just about anywhere.

So the background signals have been cancelled out now because of the pv on the move? So all that hype and then a raging westerly for how long?

If it can go qrong

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