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Severe Siberian icy blast

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Everything posted by Severe Siberian icy blast

  1. The reason pressure rises in Europe or at least part of it though is because there's not the injection of deep polar air into Europe, if the air is deeply cold, the low pressure will remain in an unstable air mass so it's one big knock on effect starting very early in the run.
  2. Next frame will see the high tilt giving us southeasterly winds because of the pressure from the low to the southwest, we could ideally have the Mediterranean low further east in a perfect world aswel but still very much a good run
  3. Completely agreed there nick, it's interesting that it says all 0z suits, it either means, all of them, gfs, UKMO, ecm etc etc or talking about the ecm coming out on all the different platforms it's uses, meteociel, weather online, netweather etc etc. Anyone able to email them to clear it up possibly?
  4. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Well I came on Sunday with the family for 4 days we go home tomorrow, arrived later Sunday so just chilled in the cottage, then took the dog on a huge walk in the Forrest in Thornton, which was amazing and really sunny and cold, since then it hasnt stopped sleeting and it's utterly depressing because the Yorkshire culture is very much about getting out and about, so we went whitby yesterday, got utterly soaked to the bone, had lunch in a bistro, whilst we were there they had a power cut and we ate half of our food we ordered(because the Ovans stopped working) in pitch black! Today we went to robbing hood bay, which was nice, very cold but nice on the beach with the dog, then got soaked once again! Anyway, bit disappointed in the weather I have saw no snow what so ever even 400m asl it was stil sleet! But other than that had a lovely time, good food and lots of booze!
  5. Maybe official but even last year we had major warming, just not official because we didn't quite get a reversal of winds.
  6. The much touted ssw does this every year almost, when there's any kind of warming imminent but the last 5 years any kind of midwinter warming has failed to downwell, I recognise this year is very different with the strength of it a lot stronger along with all the other drivers in our favour but it guarantees nothing. However in my experience even with the built in stratospheric resolution within the models, I can't remember a year when the models worked out the trop response before the warming actually happened, the bench Mark was always 21 days or so for a trop response after the warming unless of course we had a quick trop response within 5 days or so but even then models would suddenly flip after the warming, and I'm expecting the same this year, we can all try and work out where the blocking will take hold but it very very rarely plays out as one would hope to the book. But I'm more confident of seeing lots of northern blocking prevalent in the northern hemisphere in the coming weeks, whether it correlates to deep cold and easterly winds is another thing but we live in hope!
  7. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Great advise there Thank you I will check the 400m pub out for sure. If there's loads of ppn about I will have a session there aswel lol
  8. Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    Hey guys n gals, I'm coming to Yorkshire tomoz for 4 days with the fam, staying in Thornton le dale, Pickering is 2.5m away and I'm 33m abs (mrs choice I'm devastated), I'm only about 15m from east coast so really low expectations snow wise, but wondering if you think I will see any? I'm gonna take a drive into the hills for a day out and take dog for a good walk in the snow hopefully . Anythoughts much appreciated
  9. Good news however, I still think we all need to hold fire, the warming hasn't happened yet and the models and ourselves are trying to second guess where the blocking sets up, we need clear operation of the 2 vortex globes with no residual parts left in order to get blocking at true high latitudes, I think once the warming has happened the models will begin to firm up on where exactly the blocking occurs
  10. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Mark you big nob that one pic isn't even your house it's mine you little their!!!!
  11. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Lol I'm guessing that's you Matt?? If I get some decent snow I will send it over hope I get my 2 min of fame lol
  12. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    I think we should make it clear to the group that we are brothers lol. Otherwise we will both be getting ban!! Yes yes we no we are both weather freaks I have no idea what happened to us at birth, I no Mark was dropped on his head but I think I just ran around in snow naked at a very early age lol
  13. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    My number is 007 and I live at 999 bond street, opposite fool avenue, just across from iva bigans house, next door to burnt sasauge cottage.
  14. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    You silly boy this deserve a ban I'm sorry it's these knee jerk reactions that confuse people on hear. I no where you work and I'm coming for you, watch your back.
  15. Amazing analysis there Steve and thanks for taking the time to do this? I have a young family and I just never get the time to do this length of post! But just a quick one, you say first ssw in 9 years, but jan 13 had one with a quick trip response which was the result of our snowy spell in mid Jan followed by another late ssw in mid/late Feb which bought about March 13, I'm not sure whether technically they were ssw's maybe some one can clarify? But needless to say a very exciting Feb and March coming up, but I suggest people just hold on to a couple of the eggs despite the positive outlook because if it can go wrong, it most deffinately will!
  16. That is one BITTER chart and notice the low heights over the southern uk, means bands of slow moving snow across the southern districts, On another note it looks very similar to UKMO upstream toward Greenland with the vortex and with it associated deep cold uppers has began to shift from Canada, moving south east, it looks like if and a very big if, the scandi heights break down enough to allow the vortex to be the dominant player, we could be looking at a very strong northwesterly with the Azores propping up shop to the west of the UK?
  17. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Nicely snowing hear now aswel brother
  18. Wow that's really good news, is it settling? It really small flakes hear but sticking well now
  19. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    Yea snowing in the Cotswolds, started off as sleet but now sticking to most surfaces, It's snowing also on lower ground to the west in west Gloucestershire which is a good sign
  20. Snowing in the Cotswolds also started off as sleet but now sticking to most surfaces, Minus 9 what's your elevation? Thanks
  21. It's really chalk and cheese, we have gone with a significant increase of 3 things, 1- Italian low much stronger 2- stronger Canadian/Greenland vortex 3- more prominent Siberian blocking Much better prospects movjng foward from the 12 UKMO which could undercut and dive southeast into Europe
  22. Blue, that's what having a good accountant is all about boy! I have a tax bill bigger than last year, and I can't afford last years!!!!
  23. I think there's so many people that are completely obsessive over the annalysis of every single run, nothing outside t96 will be nailed, and when talking about upper air temp it's more like t48, All I see every single day, is " huge ecm coming, critical set of runs etc etc" Why is it critical? For a whole 4 hours until the next set of runs come out? All we know is we have a bitter northeastst wind this wkend, followed by an easterly next wk, how cold we don't know yet, but it's looking likely we will see attacks from the southwest, which could well mean snow for some, But the models are still trying to get to grips with the situation and it's not done with yet, But it makes the forum incredibly difficult to read with so many knee jerk reactions to every single run, it's actually painfull at times and it seems to me that one mild ecm run has the ability to ruin your day? If your that emotionally driven by a set of computer models then maybe it's time for a break!!
  24. For reference sake this is glaciers very good post from the 13th dec, what's changed so much since then? From what I can tell the GWO isn't reaching phase 8 like expected and this could be the biggest driver? Thanks