Severe Siberian icy blast

Paul can you have a look at my profile please and turn on my private messages cause iv been looking for 20 damn minutes so I'm either very thick or very tired , can't send any PM's !

Thats my take , it seems every time high lat blocking signals are there a few days later they're removed , I understand they still mention ridging toward Iceland so maybe stil a chance but I'm not sure how such strong signals can get blown away in the matter of days

But slightly confusing because it was only last wk the month forecast for February from netweather was to look East , even heard rumblings of feb 1991 being mentioned , so suddenly that's been changed ? Sounds very fickle to me ?

Could be a split vortex in fi , could be very interesting keep watching over Greenland , if we can pull that that vortex northwest we could be in a prime location for some deep cold . Edit: yuk or maybe not ! But to be expected I suppose the mods will always flatten out the pattern in fi . Some good upgrades today as the days worn on . Be nice to get some cold and snow to low ground for the first time widely for a long old time .

The thing that got me is we'r meant to see a dominance from the siberian vortex with the vortex heading east , as its been pointed out the strat backs this up with the strat vortex running the show but once again as near t0 the models leave more and more energy over Canada and now there's not really a split now at all , so we can't really say the strat vortex is having too much of an effect , yes we have a siberian segment which drops energy South into Europe , but plenty of energy left in the wrong place as usual and with no high lat blocking I find it very difficult to see it been more than a toppler with the cold spilling South into USA . All these signs , that ones go on about time and time again , including from myself counts for nothing to be honest .

The way I read that chart is northerly will last 24 hours as the low just to the south of Greenland has one name on it, the uk , toppling the high, the segment of vortex over the U.S will join back up with the main lobe , I don't think this notherly is going to happen to be honest , certainly nothing to get excited about . Hope I'm wrong but been burnt to many times . May get some interest a week or so later but untill I see cross model agreement then I don't believe it. Having the strat on side is all well and good but it rarely delivers to our tiny island.

So your confident in this split then Andrew and do you think it can over ride other signals ? I thought in this instance the MJO was working alongside us benefiting the trop response ?!

Thanks for your reply , I guess however the finer detail will be dealt with nearer the time , just really hope your February forecast comes into fruition , really need a good month , it's been a long 2 years of a lot of zonal muck to be honest . Judging by the forecast though you think we need to look East for cold into feb rather than North . I'm more interested in what comes after this Euro trough rather than with it because a topping ridge just doesn't do it for me to be honest. I suppose it depends on whether we can stay on the northern side of the jet and get some true cold air into the flow , if we can manage -7/8's uppers then given the fact the atlanitc is now colder than what it was 2 wks ago then we may all get something snowy from the northwest . Feb northwesterlies can pack a righ punch if it's coming from the poles !

Nick if you don't mind me asking , your talking of the Azores to ridge North slightly given in essence northerly toppers and a more general cold North westerly ? But yet the NAO and AO are to head negative ? That sort of contradicts itself doesn't. It ? Surely a that leads to high lat blocking in the Atlantic which should set up toward Greenland area ? Even sets up a poss cross polar flow with the -AO in place ?

Funnily enough I was going to say as the colder air creeps back over us then we may see some light snow if there's anything left from the damn thing.

A massive part of me wants to say do we never learn ? This cold spell firstly has by in large been a let down , I live on high ground and iv woken up on 4 different occasions to a light covering of snow only for it to be gone 3 hours later , and last nights snow was an absolute let down for most , apart from northern England , when only yesterday the likes Birmingham were in for it , so if that's how bad our cold spells have got in the uk then I think il move abroad . With regards to the next chase of cold , take the ECM for example T240 , how many times have we saw a complete ensemble suite go for cold only for it to be removed 2 days later . Only last wk we were looking possibly at a freeze from the beast . The difference there I suppose was the met weren't really gunning for it. But from experience when it looks like the Azores high is gonna head north , even toward Greenland , as we approach t72 the models pick up that the high can't penetrate higher enough mainly because of the vortex segment left over Greenland/Canada which ejects short waves our way , in turn this topples the high after 48 hours . Is that enough this winter that had so much promise ? I haven't had a catch up on the strat yet this morning but we need to see the strat play its part on the vortex . If we'r to have a sustained HLB to our northwest we need a tanking AO , if we haven't then it's very unlikely to deliver more than a 2 day affair . I'm just been realistic and chasing a cold spell 10 days away is fraut with danger unless we see stong correlation within the stratosphere .

Haha like I said it was the warm sector ! All in all a let down. I wanto move abroad

Maybe once the front pivots the colder air and due points will drop South again . Iv heard for places west of Solihull it's gonna become to mild as the core of the low is further west than anticipated . Sorry mark but your snow will become slush in aprox 1 hr

I don't you to be honest , prove it . Didn't you say it was snowing a few years back for only to find out you were telling fibs ?!

I have to admit the last few yrs have been so frustrating . It's turned to sleet already and melted everything . Really hate living in the uk sometimes . We have to be the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow . Same latitude as Canada , but warmer winters than Italy

Got home to heavy snow and it's white , a bit confusing the latest euro4 , every single model that's come out has and continues to be different m definately a now casting event . Nobody really knows what to expect , a lot of sleet in the southwest that meant to be rain , the low pressure centre never makes it further east than East Wales by the looks of things with 850's no lower than -3 for all , due points look the risky one but it's definately got the potential to drop lots egg on faces !

Snow steady now in stow and settling on paths immediately . Leave work in 10 min

But it's not a relentless push its getting to the mids , stalling and eventually moving south again . All to play for

What's your elevation do you no ? I'm 192 meters I think ! Anything above 100 to the north side of the front should be good , it's interesting because this ones so unpredictable , the euro4 has handled it very badly and really wouldn't be surprised to see changes on the 12z , I think the changes will only be one way and that's south . No way is this front getting into northern England . We can see the front sliding down the west side of the county and it looks like it's got 2 cores on it . And think its the southern core that's gonna flourish once it mixes with slightly warmer air and water ! Be great to see a southward movement on it !

Not really , considering it's a stalling front , so yes if your the west or South side of the front , if your East of North with southerly winds better southeasterly but you should be fine , it's more about the due points in the centre of the low that would ruin it I think . A few people are saying the low is marginally South than what the compturers predict but wel have to wait and see . If it is then 50 miles makes all the difference for the likes of Wiltshire and Oxfordshire .

I wouldn't say that. The bbc graphics looks good for areas south of the mids. Anywhere with some elevation East of Gloucester should do well i think .

I wouldn't be too worried , the uppers never get higher that -3 and that's for me at the southern tip of the mids ,but think my height will keep me safe this time , it's interesting that the front doesn't really have a notable warm sector , normally you would have a warm mixing zone where the uppers go to at lease 0c normally the other side of negative , but the mixing zone gets mixed out mainly . I think we'r gonna get some upgrades aswell today , just got a feeling .

Hemispherically speaking though we still have enough to keep us interested , still potential sliders , and always good to see high pressure separating the 2 vortex sisters . As long as that's the case it always leaves the door open to southerly tracking low pressure systems .

What the met have said or at least Ian himself on hear , is to be cautious of any quick return to the atlanitc , there's so many uncertainties going forward , and he said they expect to see a return to westerly mobility in the 10-15 day range , which sounds a resonable assessment , I'm not saying it won't happen , I'm saying we see time and time again the models pick up on something , only to drop it again , it was only 12 hours ago there was no real end in sight , now it's definately coming in 5 days ? Things will change again as they always do which is why I never take one run as an emotional rollercoaster like many do .

Considering the changes at anything post 4/5 days at the minute i find it hard to see how you can gain confidence from charts at t144 , "it's not if its when " has to be the most misleading post of the year I'm afraid . Yes the models have picked up an apparent eastward movement following Fridays low but given its 5 days away I'm not worried just yet, remeber the models done this several days ago with regards to tue front , only to backtrack .Particuarly given the MJO signal to keep things amplified , along with the split vortex , and yes another warming looking more and more likely , with decent wave one coming in from about day 6 onwards which will only put more pressure on the vortex , then given all this , also with Tamara's excellent posts over the last few days on where we'r going moving forward , raging southwesterlies don't really tie in too well at all to be honest and rather than allowing one run of the models to make my mind up I think il continue to sit quietly and try to look at the bigger picture with regards to background drivers, il be very surprised if these charts verify . They may of picked up on a push , but as they normally do they'll most likely be over reacting to a signal , only to fall back in line over the coming few days .