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Severe Siberian icy blast

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About Severe Siberian icy blast

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    cotswolds,Yanworth(nr northleach) 700ft asl (9mls from cirencester) !!
  • Interests
    football , sports , going out for food with the better half . Drinking !!! Love the gym . Own my own barber shop in stow on the wold.
  • Weather Preferences
    Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer

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  1. Hi all, in going Mayahofen a wk on Sunday for 1 wk boarding, going to a music festival called snow bombing, I went last year and believe me when I say it's mental! Looking like a cool down next wk and hoping for some snow in time for when we arrive on 2nd April, does anyone know where I can get a reliable forecast? Can't seem to find the forum in here we had last year dedicated to the alps? Gutted because it was invaluable!
  2. The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion

    Very light snow falling here in Evashum but my eye is keenly on the development in the wash that's definitely not forecast. Seems quite strong and building in land aswel. Wait and see i guess!
  3. All well and good blue although it's not a good synoptic pattern though is it? This wkend aside I mean. We have a compact vortex moving to siberia, and one massive euro high with southerlies. It's been an epic fail yet again and people use the same old words every time "potential" I would say the only bit with potential is this wkend, yet the only day with meaningfull instability is the day milder air floats over from an easterly. You litterelly couldn't make it up in this country it's by far the worst place in the world given our latitude for snow and the more time I spend here the more frustrating it's becoming. 4 years now with no snow which in itself is actually laughable and easily worse than any of the milder snowless winters in the past. It's been a lot worse even than 2006-7 when the likes of Ian Brown made his theories up. But now I'm thinking he was probably onto something because bar that group of winters between 08-13 he is right. Anyway this will last 2 minutes in here like everything else does that that is slightly controversial why the hell have a weather forum if we can't have a proper debate occasionally.
  4. Nick , this year the mjo, along with billion £££££ of computers, and the most knowledgeable of forecasters, the weather has made a mug out of everyone, forecasts jumping about as much as the computers, one minute it's a mild southwesterly for the next 10 days, the next day it's a cold 4 wks from the east, based on the mjo and strat forcings, it's the 4th winter on the trot now without any snow more than 1cm deep. Just goes to show how little we know about the weather. Let's see how we get on in the next few wks but I have so little faith in any forecast it means absolutely nothing this evening to see us in no man's land on the mods because in a few days time things will look completely different, probably right after the met office rewrite there long term forecasts. Much preferred it when ones didn't try to predict the weather more than 3 days in advance because that way people keep there dignity and hopes aren't continually dashed.
  5. My round up of where we are. Today until Sunday a deepish cold spell with 850's of -5/-11 is a fairly deep spell albeit 5 days long with snow showers for some perhaps significant snow for the North York moors/dales at times. Sunday-Wed milder users but feeling raw in asoutheast wind and low dew points. After that I'm sorry I just don't buy or agree with mild southerlies dominating, the models are in complete limbo and haven't got a clue of what to do, granted the mjo signal isn't been picked up at the minute, I'm not sure why, because it's a more amplified mjo for many months, perhaps it's a lag, also the strat warming should at least propergate down more than is been shown at the min, this easterly is trop led in my opinion not strat led. I think once we have this wkend out the way we all should see a clearer more definitive path of where we're heading.
  6. Some absolutely outrageous comments this morning in here it's an embarrassment at times im afraid. Anything past 120 is fi at the minute, a warming of the uppers is a good bet for next week, but that means absolutely nothing for anything past tue or Wednesday at the very latest, we await new signals from the models every day, and until the models pick up on the way forwards after the initial south-easterly sun/mon then there's absolutely no point in throwing toys about, we have lots of interesting things taking place at the minute not to mention the strat warming which has only just occurred , along with an active mjo for the first time this season so let's just allow the models come to grips with things rather than thinking a chart at t150 hrs away is a dead cert. Listen to the people in the know, don'tget hung up over every run, I can say this until I'm blue in the face and it won't make any difference what so ever so what's the point.
  7. Agree with mucka regarding no issue. I can see the easterly now just firming up short term, it's not a long fetched easterly but it doesn't need to be because we have already the cold air in place and in central Europe so it just sits there only slowly migrating West, and while I actually think we may well have a milder spell of uppers from the east as it takes on much more southeast type flow this doesn't really happen till t160ish and that's most definitely fi then, think about it when was the last time a t144 chart for the UK ever really came true? Yes it's the best this year by far but it's still rare to get accurate charts that far out so it's just trying to find patterns at that range. We need to keep our eyes peeled for: A surge of cold air to drop into Russia A reshaping of the scandi high to bring the cold air West again after the initial surge Signs of retrogression northwest as the vortex migrates east
  8. Good ecm out to 144, not bitter cold uppers for everyone but from York North-10 850's, still very cold surface conditions for us, and an frontal ppn that comes in will be snow, but no convection for the south on this one
  9. Nick the warming was only this wk, the scandi high is trop fed which has bought an immediate wave 2 up into the strat which is the cause for the split vortex, the effects from the ssw is in my opinion still 10-20 days away depending on its ability to downwell (or not).
  10. Yes mark I couldn't agree more, now disappear back into your cave!!
  11. Yes you can see ECM in the medium to latter the op is sitting at the top end of the pack
  12. Wow what an excellent mean. Just like I said the Azores sent packing
  13. The only thing I see the Azores doing to be honest is sinking back to the Azores, it may interfere briefly but you have a deep trough to the west of Britain, low pressure in the med, and high pressure to our northeast, there's only way that energy is going to disrupt and that's southeast and send the Azores packing imo but it's fun watching the roller coaster
  14. Couldn't agree more the scandi high is an absolute beast and for me there's no way I buy that the northern arm will get over the top of it. It's stretching right up into the pole and will take a mighty jet streak to sink it especially given the mjo amplification through 8/1 I just don't see it myself but each to there own
  15. An almost completely different view on things there regarding the route of the jet stream, one thinking the northern arm is gaining mementom and one thinking it will help in digging it southeast rather north, none of us know at this range and the cold spell isn't even in place yet, but how many times do we see the block underestimated, especially this year so let's not get carried away with eps at 216 hrs showing the high collapse I can guarantee you all that won't happen it's been the most stubborn theme of the season