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Severe Siberian icy blast

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    Wellseborne, Warwickshire
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    football , sports , food, wine! Gym. Weather lol
  • Weather Preferences
    Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer

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  1. nick sussex i was only speaking about this to my mate at the pub last night its showed alot of promise but its fell apart time and time again its been incredibly frustrating I read some very reasoned out articles and informative well put together comments on hear that all pointed to the same place which was a fun winter, its so fascinating though and that's the draw for us all! Winters sometimes the only thing that's kept me going in life lol what a disappointment
  2. We've been chasing fantom cold spells all winter do we actually expect to see anything of note months end? Id love it to happen but this year northern blocking has failed to get a foothold, the AO has been negative quite alot but getting the NAO to go negative has been tough. And now we have people talking about a 1990 style easterly with charts that's over t200 hours is just laughable in all honesty because it does seem as if there's little realism in this place at times. It will take something special to deliver in March and do really think this is a possibility? We have had several strat warnings so far and I've not seen a cm!
  3. minus10 we've been saying this all winter. Its been an absolute disaster and I'm personally going to do alot more research into meteorology because im not convinced about some of the methods been used because in all honesty it's been a disaster from a forecasting perspective. Background signals have been misinterpreted and the significance of EAMT events working in tandem with the MJO has not been impacted like anticipated, we can point towards the strat warmings for "ruining" things but i don't buy that either. Its been a frustrating one to say the least but we get mugged off by the weather every single year in our country and this year has been a spectacular fail. But i guess im in awe of the sheer magnificence of the weather and how complicated it really is. I want warmth now because i can't handle another false dawn!
  4. nick sussex ok so why do you think this is? Because its been uncanny this winter. Where's the jet stream surely it's straight over us lol
  5. MJB nothing at all, you're twisting my words. Im allowed to vent i speak truth only. When ones obsess it misleads many into thinking this particular path is the outcome yet in reality a+b doesn't make 3. And if it can go wrong it will. Many haven't seen a fake this winter
  6. TEITS But the thing is even when we have full spreads showing northern blocking etc we always seem to miss out and it becomes a fleeting visit. This year has been a joke in all honesty. It's all well and good removing posts when they don't read what you want but the reality is as a model output discussion, then airing frustration on hear surely is relevant particularly when it relates directly to the forcing drivers we've all obsessed over in depth then it's completely relevant. Every single time we enter into an opportunity whether it's a wave break, trop led, strat led, etc it implodes infront of our very eyes. I think there's a lack of ownership on hear when things turn out different. Be humble when it comes to the weather its the best way and understand that we dont know everything and its a constant learning curv but loud drums all winter has been pounded about cold on hear yet it's becoming the opposite this year and i think different angles need to be took moving forward and look at other drivers because the we rely so heavily on forecasts which hasn't actually happened yet. And even when they do fall into place we still manage to go wrong. We can have all the drivers in place and be left with a limpet low hanging around for days removing all cold from Europe with ease, Yet we can have trop led events in zonal dominated pattern and still receive snow. I think too much weight has been placed on drivers. When in reality It means very little.
  7. So this mid feb cold spell has imploded too has it? Tbh this place is the reason for this constant let down because we all get roped into background signals etc but it means sweet FA in Britain. The whole of Europe looks warm. People need to be honest with themselves and own up that the weather does what it wants. People rely so heavily on background drivers. What a boring horrible winter. Mild interludes turn unto a mild month and cold spell become a blink and will miss it job. All abit embarrassing this is tbh
  8. What a rubbish set of models lets hope my curries better lol
  9. Mid feb is 2 is wks of winter left. It wouldn't surprise me to see this years tease to peter out into another year of potential but never quite lit the cigar, we were talking about predominant northerly blocking with small windows of zonal Atlantic influence. In reality it look like we face a longer period of sustained westerly weather. Do i believe it all? No. But a drop in AMM along with a vortex shake up that didn't go our way when we already had a favourable pattern, add into the mix a very cold winter period over USA which we all know is like a spark to an engine igniting the pond resulting in a +nao, Give it another 10 days and we're all be turning to March for the fix i just hope this year does us proud we all deserve it. From a synoptic perspective its been fascinating. Lets hope our beloved background drivers bounce back but mid Feb is not good enough considering how promising its looked. Stoke north, great winter and for the Northwest with two big snow events in from first wk of Dec and the last one i know some places were buried and parts of Scotland and NI have done well too but for places brum south it's been pants from a snow respective.
  10. Not convinced this is nailed tbh. Alot of conflicting posts regarding whats really leading the pattern. This cold spell has been trop led, which has aided the Canadian warming no?
  11. Thanks for replying because i did quote you last night so thanks for getting back. Remember 2013 when we had a quick trop response think around 6th january, you were all over it at the time. Then we had that mad cold march too. Is it possible of an early response this time because they're quite unpredictable
  12. Again im catching up now, so what gets me with the warming that's undergoing this week why are people so quick to write the next wk or two off when a fast response may happen and change the entire game
  13. Well we've had two warmings over Canada now, ironically the recent spike in strat temps have had the effect we didnt want. I've only Just caught up i lost pages when it went mad and needed to understand because i was under the impression this last warming ongoing the last few days would infiltrate itself into the modeling over the coming 10 days but you're saying we had a quick response and next WK is the response?!
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