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Severe Siberian icy blast

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  • Gender
  • Location
    Broad Campden, chipping Campden, north Cotswolds
  • Interests
    football , sports , going out for food with the better half . Drinking !!! Love the gym . Own my own barber shop in stow on the wold.
  • Weather Preferences
    Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer

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  1. No I haven't got another chase in me, the mods can't get it right at t96 so why an earth would they nail it from 240hrs? The downwell has flopped at the end of the day we all know it can happen but just have a feeling it's one of the years, As for next week it's not really a cold spell let's be honest, having to go high on a hill in January to find snow doesn't tick my box and definitely doesn't class as a cold spell!
  2. The thing is the wedges have only really rang true this week into tue next week but apart from that they've generally not helped, and the time period they were meant to have biggest effect hasn't actually got hear yet, so more of a prediction more than a reality, one which has changed now so nothing is a given and the high pressure to our NW in 10 days could well be scuppered by remnants of the vortex left over there so think for me I'm refraining from forecasting anything because they very rarely go the way you think
  3. If this ends up been correct then it also shows the trop on this occasion is king over the strat, don't shoot the messenger gang but as I said if it can go wrong then it will, May go the entire winter snowless now there's a thought!!!
  4. Maybe but it's just another garden path scenerio and it got everybody walking the path again only at t96 to start changing once most thought we were home and dry but I'm so glad Iv learnt from the past years of this happening but stil get emotionally caught up in the hype that's what weather lovers do unfortunately but if it will go wrong for anyone then it will for the brits in afraid
  5. To be completely honest I think we are gonna miss the boat for next week, you can see even on the other models although they bring the cold air over us the notion is for the Atlantic high to drift over the UK, the ecm is at the very extreme end of that pattern but the other 2 mods stil in some way have the same idea to a lesser degree, I think a middle ground solution hear with uk missing out on v cold uppers next week but very cold surface conditions but no snow showers from the east.
  6. Severe Siberian icy blast

    Midlands Regional Discussion

    Just turned up for footie in Redditch and confirm it's turning to snow lots of flakes coming down in the rain. Could be a few surprises
  7. Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96,
  8. There's know denying it, ecm is messy, and keeps us at the very edge of the set up, with milder air never to far away from western areas, but it's one run, and stil just about delivers although not much in the way of snow in the West or on low ground, Thankfully it will probably look different in the morning but let's see where it is in the ensembles, but iv been burnt loads of times before so I'm holding back the champs for another 24 hrs!
  9. Paul it gets put back and put back, you know this, iv barely saw a frost, never mind snow, horrific winter so far and we are half way through. . I will never personally put a winter forecast together because it's fraught with danger, almost impossible to get right and this year is just another example
  10. It's because the Ec46 is a finally tuned long range forecasting super computer, which is greatly respected amongst the most coorperate organisations on the plannet, a bit different to the gfs which is a short range forecasting tool, yes it goes to 384 but once it gets into low res is rapidly goes back to climatology inbuilt within it which is why it's famous for blowing up the jet stream etc, And also why it's looked at with a huge pinch of salt by many past t144
  11. It's the 2nd from last chart available who gives a monkeys honestly?? It barely gets it right at t144 I honestly am completely amused when people use charts like this for cold or mild it has no relevance what so ever. We have great changes happening now not only within the strat but clearly the downwelling has begun, Let's hope we all see some snow!
  12. Sorry but you are cherry picking, no uppers of -4 on a northwest flow will bring snow to anyone apart from Scottish ski resorts, and the last chart is looks like a fleeting northerly, Thankfully we are becoming primed for wedges of heights to develop north of the diving jet into Europe, hence the 240hr ecm at low and behold day 10. Next week is cool zonality, after that who knows which is where we expect things to get interesting.
  13. Digging low heights, possible wedge to north/northeast
  14. Not talking about what your on about mate!! Anyhoo really glad to see things looking up, be good to have something worth remembering this winter, like last, cold winters tend to come in clumps, it's no coincidence they tend to come during Low sun patterns. . .
  15. Take my hat off to @bluearmy the sinking trough and small wedges of heights playing out like del boys pack of cards against boycey!!