Grimsby Snow Lover

Does anyone know what the updated ec32 run suggested this morning?

That may true for inland areas but coastal counties would struggle for snow under -2c uppers.

I would love to see the Control run on the ECM Nick!!

Quite a steep dive in the AO ens this evening as we head further through January. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO still looks like remaining around neutral to possibly positive for the foreseeable future. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Agreed!!! How does the GEM do in terms of accuracy at that range?

Don't know about anyone else but I'm really missing discussing the snow and cold on the regional threads as this was one of the highlights of a Netweather winter. I really hope the ECM and other models follow through with their cold weather promise in around two weeks time.

Cold on here usually means 850 temperatures below -5 (the closer to -10 uppers the better) and 2m temperatures at 3 degrees or below with ice days being the holy grail.

For what its worth the NAO forecasts looks like heading very slightly negative over the next week or so. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Whilst the AO looks like it go either strongly negative or strongly positive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif I guess the sheer spread shown in the AO ens could suggest a pattern change over the pole is likely.

A bit of an old wives tale really unfortunately. If any weather was to affect us from the US it would be in the form of wind and rain, any real cold for us usually comes from the North or East during winter months.

Not from that chart, but quite possibly from the latter end of the run. Something seems to be brewing though doesn't it.

When you say 'Not much of a vortex' what do you mean? I thought those purple colours indicate a strong vortex. I'm asking because I would like to know what to look for. Many thanks GSL

To be fair to weatheronline their December forecast issued at the end of October was pretty bang on. So hopefully you could be right.

Where did you hear this? Does this give some support to the ECM 12z operational? Thanks GSL

I was thinking the same thing!! That would be a very cold NE wind wouldn't it.

...hope indeed that nobody gets killed or injured when the next batch of storms arrive later tonight. Here on the East coast we are still rebuilding sea defences from the severity of the weather.

This looks very similar to how the 6Z GFS run finished this morninghttp://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20131229/06/384/h500slp.png

The AO is still forecast to go negative after in the new year, although the NAO looks to remain positive for the near future. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Is this chart a positive one if a route towards cold in the UK is going to happen? The reason I ask is because the lows seem angled at a SE direction http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png

Its a long time since I've seen the AO forecast to go this negative in a long time, we just need this to materialise and help weaken the PV significantly enough to allow blocking to develop to the north of us (I know this is no guarantee for cold snow for us though). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO looks like staying neutral to slightly positive for a while longer, in which case we will struggle to get the Atlantic blocked. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Forgive me if I am reading them wrong but they don't look that different considering there are over 51 runs averaged out.

So true, but Feb 1991 was a thing of beauty.

Not the worse chart I have seen from the ECM. We are not far from an easterly here with quite a strong Scandi high that could prove difficult to shift. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Thats probably the best ECM chart of the winter so far

Following on from a pretty pleasing GFS 12Z run (if colds your thing) the latest AO forecast looks good to me with most members going negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The NAO could go either way http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif. Merry Christmas everyone.