You may well be correct mate, but worth remembering that the cold spell hasn't even begun yet and past history has shown that cold air at the surface is quite hard to shift even if the upper temperature are on the rise in fi. With the spread shown on the gfs ensembles and the ukmo showing a quite different scenario i feel it is too early to believe the end games shown by the gfs or ecmwf are a done deal yet. The output could flip tomorrow. You never know. Let's just enjoy the cold this week as us collies have been waiting months and months for this.