Grimsby Snow Lover
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Posts posted by Grimsby Snow Lover
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We've had light flurries here for the past hour, nothing exciting though. Not expecting much more yo be honest.
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4 minutes ago, shaky said:
Where is ian fergie?!!aint seem him post anything in ages!!back to the models am glad gfs has dropped the idea of the potential west based nao from this morning!!just need an upgrade on the atlantic block on the 18z and voilaaa!!!
It's my understanding that some of the information Ian shared with us last year was used on other social media websites without his permission. I remember him saying that he would have to stop posting on here. Such a shame isn't it.
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37 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Evening All and Wake Up!!!
Its rather a stagnant non descript outlook this week with high pressure in control. Looking later into the week Spain throws us a colder pool of air from the south into the weekend ......How often do you see that??? After that interesting times....
Hi Anyweather. Please explain why exciting times? Thanks
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7 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:
Would tonight's ECM bring snow showers for SE England or would it be a dry easterly? Thanks
Personally I would say it's too early to tell. Usually in easterly setups troughs and showers are only able to be forecasted a few 12 hours in advance. You would expect some snow showers thought looking at what the Ecm has shown tonight.
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4 minutes ago, booferking said:
If only this was 24hrs away..
Yes, I thought that too. The Northern hemisphere view looks good to me too with very little pv left. You can clearly see the negative AO.
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7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:
1 December had a strong NAO signature image courtesy of Anthony Masiello on twitter.
2 Bz refers to solar influence on the NAO and whether increased activity expands the Hadley Cell vs other forcing ( eg MJO)
3 The strat plots show a distended vortex carved across the NH as a result of a 2k M Wave 1 forcing, the Pacific Block pushing the vortex, being met briefly by the Atlantic anomaly.
4 The 100 hPa pattern shows the avenue to support ridge development NW > NNE and also the intrigue of the next evolution of the vortex energy shown in the 475K, around that time the MJO will be on 2-7 days for activity again.
Sounds interesting, but what exactly does this all mean? Thanks
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Second bite of the cherry coming up!
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3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Can you please explain what you mean? It would be valuable to those who want to learn and myself!
I think he is referring to the fact that the northerly air flow has been cut off as the high pressure has toppled over the uk.
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9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:
The clear trend after the 2nd is for no real sustained cold though, though there is still some scatter in my opinion the trend is still away from any long lasting cold spell. The mean was -5 yesterday it's now between -1 and -2.
The average temperatures look to remain below 5 degrees which to my knowledge is below average if nothing else. I do get what you mean though as things could be a lot colder if those Stella runs from yesterday were to verify.
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5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:Sorry - apparently it was copied to a Facebook group without permission. We had this issue a year or two ago. Thus removed to prevent further reproduction with risk of changed context.
Such a shame that happened again Ian as I and everyone else on here really appreciate all your contributions( even if I don't always fully understand what you say
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35 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Hard to be sure for sure, though we can only go on what the ensembles are hinting at. GEFS and EPS suggesting a return of the Gulf of Alaska ridge in early Jan, which would perhaps ridge far enough to the pole to temporarily turn the AO -ve. Also both signal the 'euro slug' ridge retrograding into the N Atlantic.
06z GEFS 500mb mean in early Jan
00z EC ensemble clusters likewise:
Could someone please explain this tweet as I have no idea what it's benefits could be. Thanks.
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3 minutes ago, stewfox said:
18z big changes to the north east by 29 dec
In what way Stewfox? Thanks
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6 minutes ago, Sperrin said:
What's the difference between the GFS and GEFS? Is the GEFS an updated version of the GFS? Cheers.
It is my understanding that the GEFS are the ensembles including the gfs operational and control run.
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We had a very heavy hail shower that lasted near half an hour earlier in the afternoon. It left behind nearly an inch of ice on all surface that in places still remains now. It's official April has been more successful fir cold and wintry weather than the whole of the previous winter. If only the SSW happened earlier.
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You have to laugh don't you. Here we are at the end if April with winter synopsis charts that would have delivered so much more during the actual winter! Currently -8 dew point here. It never got anywhere near that during the winter just gone. Some of us might get a surprise or too tonight.
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2 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:
some possibilities of snow showers off the North Sea for snow starved East Yorkshire on Sun night perhaps ....
That really would be a pleasant surprise and we have had nothing all winter and have missed out on every occasion so far.
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11 minutes ago, caistor top said:
Back to a friendly thread,south east's seem to shoot everyone down from oooooop north if they dare say it won't be snowing down there tonight lol
its tipping down with rain here so expecting pish to happen here tonight regarding wintriness
Well if its raining where you are mate then us folk down the hill have no chance of anything wintery tonight. I was contemplating a drive up the A46 tomorrow morning....
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5 minutes ago, louth weather said:
Radar showing rain/ snow mix but just light rain here.
Temp 2.5 C. DP 1.6 C
We need the dew point to lower by a degree or so, or for the intensity to increase. I'm not expecting anything here. Time will tell of course.
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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
I can't believe that NWly and Nly airflows have become so marginal in recent times. Seems you get an initial push of conducive uppers before a gaping mild sector appears. Time and time again just recently.
Agreed! we are currently nearing the end of a cold spell and what amazes me is that the temperatures have been average at best. Since when has average temperatures been classed as a cold spell? when was the last time Shetland and Aberdeen got hammered by frequent heavy snow showers in a northerly flow?
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Just remember folks in the west of our region, you all at least had a snow covering during the January coldish spell. Here in the east we have had zilch.
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3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:
I'm so , so very tired. we have had to put up with rubbish for 3 years now. I don't care how old anyone is, everyone I've spoken to around here, even people in their 80s, have not seen a period so devoid of snow.
I'm so tired of the models whipping everything away from us at the last minute. the more 'clever' people on here will say I'm being silly and that I should not look beyond such and such a period. but I don't think anything has ever ben as misleading as it has been these past 2-3 years. Have the models become less reliable or has the weather? We really need to ask this question!
3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:I'm so , so very tired. we have had to put up with rubbish for 3 years now. I don't care how old anyone is, everyone I've spoken to around here, even people in their 80s, have not seen a period so devoid of snow.
I'm so tired of the models whipping everything away from us at the last minute. the more 'clever' people on here will say I'm being silly and that I should not look beyond such and such a period. but I don't think anything has ever ben as misleading as it has been these past 2-3 years. Have the models become less reliable or has the weather? We really need to ask this question!
I agree mate. It's no coincidence in my opinion that the brutal cold that has affected the north eastern states over the past three years has something to do with our winters as this has super charged the jet stream. I can remember watching an old Bec forecast during February 1991. The states were having an unusual warm spell while we were getting hammered with snow and sub zero temperatures.
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2 hours ago, Snowy L said:
Could be looking at both La Nina and an E-QBO going into next winter.
What would that mean for our winter next year? Thanks in advance.
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2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:
Do bear in mind the very different evolution into medium range touted by 12z GFS-P. It's not wholly without support elsewhere, albeit a minority probability presently.
Hi Ian, as a novice what in simple terms do you mean? Many thanks
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Does anyone know if it's snowing in hull area as the netweather radar suggests there is a chunk hearing this way, even it if is light.
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Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Really heavy snow here at the minute. Everywhere is covered!