weatherwise

10cm of snow in Shefford, Beds where I am tonight. Can't remember a more fun walk back from the pub and I'm 33! (Though we did get more in Dec 10)

Its now snowed here 5-10 days before Christmas for the last 3 years - nothing like last year of course when we still had a few inches on the ground on the big day.

Still some snow sitting on the Dunstable Downs http://www.dunstablehpc.co.uk/images/weather/dunnycam.jpg

I remember several falls of snow in the 80s and 90s in Norfolk and after I left Norfolk in 1996 there were a number of heavy falls (the result of northerly winds, frequent showers) that got to about Wymondham and then fizzled out during the 2000s when it was practically completely snowless in inland 'East Anglia'. You are just going through a bit of a drought of late (I know 09/10 and 10/11 were not as good as here for instance). Well this snowwatch has been fun - heres to the next one -may be a few wintry showers tonight/this weekend but goodness knows when the next snow event will be, no sign on any models - so maybe mid Jan earliest?

This is what its like in Luton (annoying ad to skip at the start) http://lutonlive.com/ - not a great deal more really.

Thats odd. I'm in Bedford (right in the middle) and its been snowing for a few hrs. , Just a slushy few mms sticking to cars, rooves etc. Snow still falling, a teensy bit more than I expected actually.

Oh well - I'm not going to look at any more forecasts. Just wait and see if there's any snow come tomorrow morning. I imagine there will be some flash warnings issued if this develops like the NAE indicates because even 2-5cm of snow (what the NAE is indicating, remember the MetO/BBC forecasts etc run straight off the NAE) would cause big problems

yep. said this would change right up to +0. Even an inch or two on the ground in the west of our region come morning on the latest projection http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis18/ukuk/weas/11121609_2_1518.gif

Thats because thats what the latest models show - they (the auto forecasts on MO website) run direct off the NAE (links elsewhere in this thread) and UKMO/ ECM for longer term.

Yeh last December was a bit different I think - the Met Office actually had a red emergency warning out before it hit. I think this time we are looking at a few snowflakes if we're lucky. Could be wrong though. Its not even going to get below freezing, thats one problem (on the day, 18th Dec 10, it snowed big last time the temperature was comfortably in the snowable temperature range, at or below freezing - we were in the grip of a proper and rare freeze)

Yep wouldn't be surprised if Luton Airport cancelled a few flights tomorrow morning. I live in Bedford and used to work in Luton, it would often snow there but not in Bedford.

The very very latest model (12z NAE) pushes the snow a little (about 10-15 miles?) further into our region http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis12/ukuk/prty/11121612_2_1512.gif However not settling anywhere in our region (this is the max - http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis12/ukuk/weas/11121609_2_1512.gif)

Yes, it has - basically if you are in the orange area then you have a reasonable chance of some snow settling - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html The chief forecasters view for the orange area:

If you've got a bit of height in Borehamwood, you certainly have a chance. The latest models out (particularly NAE) seem to indicate most of the precipitation is to our south now. NAE says couple mms (would be 2cms if all of it was snow and settled - unlikely) and GFS only slightly more (3-5mm). Runs before this were indicating 10+mm of precip which I think increased our chance of the rain turning to snow and sticking.

06z NAE out and that 60 mile variance 'MKsnowangel' mentions is highlighted by the fact that no snow is forecast in our region now (may be far SW Bucks) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=30&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO= In fact just a few mms of rain seems the most we can hope for. Still time for it to change, but the low is further south.

Yep its a nowcasting event, not pure good honest snow but a wintry mix affair where some could do well (Chilterns?). The 0z NAE extends the snow risk a bit http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/15/basis00/ukuk/prty/11121612_2_1500.gif Now we wait for the 6z to change it again :smilz38:

The 18z NAE doesn't look very good. Les snowy for our region (not that the 12z was snowy outside 3 counties) http://www.weatheron...P=0&INFO=0&WMO= It will change again later, and then back etc.

Bear in mind this is very knifedge, as tiny changes in the track of that low will make all the difference between rain/snow (or not much precip at all) and gales (or less) or severe gales (or worse). Hello! Its one of those annoying 'wait and see' things. Have been a number of marginal events in recent years for our neck of the woods! (usually its just dry rather than rain instead of snow I find). This has potential, but for certain none of the forecasts will get it 100% right, especially this time. More 'wait and see' than usual.

Snow on the ground for some come Friday http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/14/basis12/ukuk/weas/11121612_2_1412.gif

A worrying looking chart for our region, esp the coasts http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/14/basis12/ukuk/pslv/11121609_2_1412.gif

The latest NAE model (which proved good last year I think) is estimating some snow (settling too) for Friday morning in the west of our region. I think these charts will chop and change so by no means certain http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/14/basis06/ukuk/prty/11121606_1406.gif

Indeed. wasn't it good. Will keep my pics in my sig for some time I think.

Yeh and being selfish (here in Beds) I'd actually like to know whats going on in Northants (and other surrounding counties) so I have to check the Midlands and SE also. Oh, to be back in Norfolk, at least you know where you are

I would say there is a chance of a storm tracking close to our region Thurs/Fri but the models tend to overdo things. I.e. tonights storm now looks like not troubling us too much, may be 40-50mph gusts tho. Models had it looking a lot worse 48 hrs ago.

I did not observe any snow in Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr,May,Oct or Nov this year (and none so far in Dec). This is the first time in the 15 years I've lived in Bedford. Got to be a fair chance of a totally sleet/snowless year. I know a couple of other Beds stations (i.e. Clifton nr Shefford, about 12 miles away) recorded 1 or 2 days with sleet in Jan/Feb but I didn't spot it here, and I am a pretty good lamppost watcher. I have local records going back 100+ yrs (Luton, ok its a higher elevation) but its not happened in that timeframe at all (no snow at all in the year). All in all this year snow-wise is more unusual than last year (December, in particular) when I saw 18cm level snow lying in mid month that lasted until after Christmas. Worth a post..... :smilz38: