rich1

Thought for a second I had opened the wrong tab there Some cold uppers coming in there. -10 jobs. Will vary before the time but a decent length spell there...ahem

It's a familiar pattern with many a cold spell modelling. The 0z tend to be shall we say 'glass half empty' a lot of the time Have to look at it really as a 24 hour comparison between runs rather than what it compares with to the 18z GFS. As for the longer range outlook, now these are guidelines and signals and the chaos theory being what it is, those are subject to change. At the monent though this is shaping up to be a longer and somewhat colder version of the last cold spell. Instincts tell me this may repeat at least one more time before winter is out with variations around the theme. Has been hinted at a few times in the output. As has a high sitting over or close to the UK with cold nights. Could be a frosty month Then we enter spring and then I think high pressure to the south becomes more to people's liking

Probably a mixture of uncertainty (have always found snow forecasting here to be a bit more nowcast, more so these days, bar vague statements. Warnings pop up later) and past experience with northerlies which tend to end up being quite dry by and large. This one looks a bit more disturbed than the usual type when you look at that chart but the end effect could be still relatively dry for places Overnight models not bad at all for cold deep in to next week. Any release is going in to um bongo land where a mix of solutions are progged. Worth bearing in mind also the temps seen on the tv are max city temps. Day and night out of the towns you can subtract a couple of degrees, if not more. Don't see anything truly exceptional but in the north this could be a reasonable winter overall. Northern Ireland have done better than usual with all these northwesterly bursts. I strongly suspect and this is hinted at in paces that even if we do see a let up in a week or sos time, we will see another go at this pattern following on within a matter of a few days, and deeper in to February is usually not an active period in the Atlantic comparatively speaking so lots of interest I think going in to the back end of the winter period. Fine by me. Not seen too much heavy rain this winter which makes a nice change

Not a fan of the azores high out of season (summer) but it can wander about a bit to give some occasional or temporary relief from mild at least. Its the euroslug which is the real winter killer

Oh I dunno. Seen far worse dec-jan periods In the north it's been ok. More so Scotland Though last winter was a very low benchmark. This one though isn't finished though as the pros clearly emphasized But myself, frost is ok. And seen some bits of snow on 2 mornings in this period. Not memorable but seen more half baked cold hype than this one and still a few days left. Incidentally quite a few ensemble sets indicate lowish 850's. So if not snow, still chillier spells with frosty periods may be on the menu once this spell peters out. No bartletts or such like

Agree with this. Next year am giving it up cross between too much information and certain people who enjoy urinating on peoples parades when things go wrong [otherwise known as 'know it all' syndrome] take an enjoyable hobby and make it in to a irritation at times. That and even for the less 'told you so-ey' posters the mentality isnt so much a glass half empty as a rule, its the glass itself has been stolen last week. Not been that bad these last few years but eeyoring seems to be the default state of mind when it comes to chartwatching for summer heat or winter cold. After a while it becomes annoying if I am honest not even in Britain at this time and the moaning and smugness in the model thread makes me annoyed on the behalf of those who are give me the old days any day, where you relied on 3 day forecasts and forums and their associated trolls and prophets of doom didnt exist, and a 'mild ramp' was something you saw on a residential road. Pandoras box has indeed been opened and not sure we are better off for it tbh

Looking at the general theme of the outputs I would say that cooler/coldish snaps in the second half may be more apparent than in the tedious first half but on the whole I am strongly leaning towards this winter being succinctly described in future years as 'dump' by which I dont mean the amount of snow kind of 'dump', more the tip at the other end of town/stuff that comes out of people's bottoms kind of 'dump' hoping next year will be an improvement, but have to say am not sorry I aint in the UK at the moment. Christmas was a real Milan Jovanovic of a festive period for weather, and January this year has been pretty poor really

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png another mild op run it appears. On the face on it, not bad, I guess for cold lovers there is a better chance of something decent emerging than last month. Though getting the feeling this winter is going to be a bit like watching Liverpool in the last 3 seasons. Flashes of hope but ultimate and perhaps slightly inevitable disappointment. After 3 pretty good winters, this one we might have copped a dud. It happens sometimes. To much HP to the south, either European, Bartlettish or Azores. I suppose though that in previous mild years there seemed no inclination for the highs to move, am not sure that has been the case this year as such, however time and again something seems to come along [the jet etc] to throttle it before it can get going still a bit of time left of course but the models seem to be in tease mode a bit, even though there has been a break in the zonal pattern recently, it hasnt been allowed to fully reset. Just a bit out of luck this season I reckon. Not exactly a write off post, more a feeling of which way the wind could be blowing for us at this time. Still, who knows, could be more flip flopping on the way

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png These have been fairly consistent with a dipping of the mean after the 19th for a while now. ECM also looks interesting. Not actually in the UK now but feel a colder last few weeks of winter may avoid the potential 'pairing' of mild horrors i.e. 1988-9/1989-90 or 2006-7/2007-8 for when I am back in December of this year so am quite keen to see the pattern evolve even if I am not there to experience it. I wonder if a 2004-5 scenario could be in the offing of some sort, though it was a bit frustrating in some ways with warm ground temperatures stopped settling snow for quite a few places, february and march did kind of rescue the winter as a whole. Perhaps it 'could' be a similar scenario in the long run do seem to be some changes afoot with the fierce PV which ruined the festive period looking less entrenched than it has been

Back out in Thailand now so am in the 'happy' position of being able to look at the output without the ups and downs associated, the conditions over the festive period degenerated in to something truly atrocious which left me feeling this winter maybe isnt going to be our winter but there has been some improvement lately in the upstream [stratospherically especially] which indicates some decent hope for the last 6 weeks or so of the season. Looking at the ensemble charts there has been consistency for some time now for colder weather to approach the UK and that has remained largely intact without too much flipping yet, with colder weather of a kind appearing in the op runs, albeit with less consistency, as we have seen between the 18z [cold] and the 0z [not so cold] Normally recenish history has told us that once you get off to a poor start it becomes harder to claw back ground, but if the uk could flip to colder conditons for late jan and feb then it will still be a good indicator that these days it is possible to dig your way out of dire situations and not necessarily expect a 06-07 or 1988-89 if a Bartlett or Eurotrash sets up in late november/december Hard one to call at this point, a heart versus head situation maybe. One to watch closely, but does look like northern areas again should be best placed to at least get weather more resembling winter, especially if cold zonality ends up reasserting itself

Going back out to tropicana on Sunday My summary of the winter weather I have seen this year: the biggest load of absolute and utter jaff I have ever had the misfortune to witness in living memory wind, rain and filthy mild weather destroying our xmas and new year festive feeling. 14c on both days, it was as if Sian Lloyd rubbed a lamp and got her 3 wishes. Absolute purgatory still, at least when I am back next year hopefully, it cant really get a lot worse than this past year anyway. A ultimate low point for lovers of cold winter weather, this xmas holiday has been utter crap

Sadly for me am out of here on the 9th Jan to the tropics for the rest of the year, i cant afford to be patient what the models have shown for late december/january has come as a bit of a kick in the tadger. Basically exactly what i didnt want to be shown for my window of opportunity is on show. How there are people who will enjoy this rubbish I cant quite get, bar those wanting easy travel journeys or old people of course Its really really boring and unfestive and next year I wont be model watching. At least then i can retain some hope to wake up the next day to something better

Charts indicating one of those irritating Brian Gaze colloquilaisms i.e Zonal-Bartlett, if you are in to that kind of dinner mashing terminology which I personally despise not every day will be 10c plus, but this xmas period is turning in to one I will be quickly forgetting.

Xmas day looking not too clever at this range though still some scope for change to some degree that can deliver 'seasonal' weather, either under a bit of HP or a NW incursion. Possibly less likely than a depressing sw influence but we wont know for sure for a couple of days or so as for the models at the moment, they are underwhelming looking presently but there are some differences than the situation we faced a month ago, in that firstly the statospheric conditions are a bit healthier than the record breakingly dire state it was in a few weeks ago, and secondly GFS have played around with the HP set up generally speaking with the core a bit further north and west than we saw in November, more or less over the UK. In february it would bring cool nights and warmer days under the strengthening sun, but in late december there is scope for frosty/foggy weather to perhaps become more apparent as the high beds in after an initial milder period, at least for a time anyway. Which is not that bad if you like cold weather. We could be unlucky and the high sinks south in to a bartletty set up, but I prefer to look at the best case scenarios as much as possible and with some hints [only hints] that we could at least be batting on a more even wicket in terms of the upstream conditions than previously, its not yet a write off scenario. Be interested to see how the models develop over the next 10 days, as that could be a key period as regards whether the first half of the season is salvageable even though any snowy scenarios look distant this side of the new year at the moment

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png Looks fairly averageish if anything. Warmer days between 21-23 December looks a decent bet though. Not really locked in mild yet though. Cluster of cool runs around the big day though not many going for anything particularly lasting at the moment, though gives a shout at a seasonal feeling day nothing particularly exciting mind but things can of course change. Whether they do or not is in someone else's hands